The State of It

Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, a close ally of Andy Burnham, has sounded the alarm over the upcoming budget, warning the Prime Minister can’t “vibe-code his way to growth”.Patrick joins John Healey on the road, getting a glimpse of the Chancellor’s pro-business pitch — and the bottle of HP Sauce he keeps in his briefcase.Ben takes us inside the budget, unpacking four key areas: help with business costs, support for households facing rising energy bills, a fuel duty freeze and a package to tackle youth unemployment. Can Healey’s budget deliver meaningful change, or is the big stuff still being kicked down the road?Ben reflects on his time with Andy Burnham, exploring the mayor’s ambitions, political instincts and frustration with Westminster — and what his first 100 days reveal about his wider national project.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty Images

In this live recording of The State of It, Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day.John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices?Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environmental grounds. Cue an almighty cabinet row.Reform UK’s poll lead has narrowed as Restore eats into its support. But is Westminster writing off Nigel Farage too soon? Reform remains the most trusted party on immigration and is sharpening its economic pitch to working-class voters.Finally, Andy Burnham faces one of Labour’s biggest challenges: reforming the welfare system.Recorded in Westminster as part of The Battle of Ideas festival.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - "The bond vigilantes are ready to split our throats" 00:09 - Inside Healey’s budget: Bank taxes & disappearing headroom 02:04 - "He’s a dud": Cabinet backbiting over the Chancellor 04:34 - The budget trap: Delaying big tax rises until next year 07:02 - Courting the squeezed middle: Business rates vs Reform UK 08:53 - Shock YouGov polling: Only 3% expect to be better off 11:24 - Is Reform UK finished, or are the pundits wrong? 15:45 - The bizarre reason Number 10 secretly wants a Tory comeback 18:12 - Cabinet AI civil war: Silicon Valley vs British jobs 22:30 - The UK grid crisis: Can we even power AI data centres? 24:51 - The Milburn Review: Plans to ban benefits for under-25s 29:19 - Broken PIP system: Backdated lump sums and 18-year assessment delays 32:15 - Can Labour ever shake the "welfare party" label?

Andy Burnham has pulled the lever marked ‘Brexit’, threatening to reignite the wars of yesteryear. The soft left are delighted, but there’s unease in his cabinet. Is this a route back to a referendum, or just a meagre SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) deal? Or is Burnham already firing the opening shots of his election campaign — at the expense of the leave-voting areas he promised to win over? Has he already failed the Makerfield test?It’s budget season, and speculation is mounting over what’s inside John Healey’s red box. This is billed as a budget for the high street: for the white van man and the beauticians of Rotherham, funded by a crackdown on online retail giants. But with John Lewis sounding the alarm, how far will the chancellor go?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - The Brexit Wars Return 02:51 - Why Andy Burnham Wants Closer EU Ties 05:25 - Nigel Farage Delighted & Secret Cabinet Rifts 08:04 - The Real Cost: Free Movement & Single Market Traps 10:50 - Is Labour Priming The Polls For An Early Election? 13:46 - Has Burnham Abandoned The 'Makerfield Test'? 17:46 - The Russia Claim: Anatomy Of A 24-Hour U-Turn 20:06 - "Authenticity" Or Chaos? Burnham's Loose Talk 22:25 - The Budget: John Healey Targets 'White Van Man' 26:11 - High Street vs Online Giants: Retailers Strike Back 28:56 - Historic Tax Hikes: Distracting From The Pain

Zack Polanski's defeat in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election puts him in a tough position. The Green leader lost the by-election by 3,300 votes to Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Labour candidate. He's also facing criticism after the Green Party voted to declare that Zionism is racism. Polanski did not vote and has been accused of failing to show leadership. How tenable is his position now?Plus, parliament is back next week and the real business of government gets going. We look at what's in store and how the chancellor, John Healey, is preparing for a very, very difficult budget.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducer: Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - By-Election Result: Labour Wins Holborn & St Pancras 00:36 - Is Zack Polanski’s Leadership in Trouble? 01:56 - Green Party Rifts & The Palestine Motion Controversy 07:34 - Is This the Beginning of the End for Polanski? 11:06 - Andy Burnham’s Electoral Boost & Labour’s Position 11:44 - Parliament Returns: Navigating the Autumn Budget 13:18 - John Healey, Treasury Trips, and Bank of England Warnings 16:39 - Defence Spending vs Public Services Dilemma 20:39 - Welfare Reviews, Jackdaw Gas Field & Election Speculation

Kemi Badenoch's attack on Reform UK was all about character and her attack on Labour was all about economics. In her speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she said she would to scrap inheritance tax on family homes and that under a Conservative government, couples would be able to leave an extra £1m inheritance tax free to their children.Badenoch was withering about Nigel Farage and Reform UK, saying: "The circus goes on and on and it will never stop because this is who Reform are — so to those who say ‘unite the right’, we are not uniting with that.”We look at the Conservatives' electoral strategy, their prospects — especially compared with a year ago — and the vibes among their MPs.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - Live from Tory Conference: Badenoch’s Speech Analysis00:41 - The Inheritance Tax Gamble: Family Homes Exempt02:01 - Strategic Shift: Winning Back the South & Abandoning the Red Wall05:14 - Why Immigration Was Dropped From the Main Message06:33 - "We Will Not Unite": Direct Rejection of Reform UK & Farage08:03 - Character vs. Policy: The New Strategy Against Reform10:45 - Key Omissions: Public Services and the NHS13:17 - Football Legends, Identity, and Patriotism17:36 - Vibe Check: A Surprisingly United Tory Party20:19 - Badenoch’s Dominance: "Captain, Manager, and Owner"22:13 - Path to Power: Rebuilding Economic Trust25:08 - Behind the Scenes: Bars, Protesters, and Business Access29:34 - Did Badenoch’s Speech Set the Political Weather?32:50 - Looking Ahead to the Budget

The Labour Party is jubilant. Andy Burnham has fired the starting gun for the next general election with one of the most consequential conference speeches in recent memory. He used it to set out a series of major proposals, including an end to the triple lock, the abolition of first-past-the-post and closer ties with Europe.At the heart of his national project is a care service free at the point of use. Burnham has set out a vision that promises to put Britain on a different road. But can he persuade the country to buy into it?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty Images

At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, the mood is jubilant. They have a popular leader who can speak fluently in public. Andy Burnham's speech on Tuesday will be a big moment and it's expected to be full of announcements. Whitehall and cabinet ministers are trying to keep up. The problem, as always, is making the sums add up. The prime minister has made social care the main topic of conversation. We discuss whether he is ready to ditch the triple-lock on pensions to pay for social care reform and whether he could fight an election promising tax rises.In Rachel Reeves's first budget, taxes went up more than £30 billion, and then she had to come back for more. The Treasury wanted to avoid a third tax-raising budget but the numbers are moving against them. Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty Images

John Healey, the chancellor, tells us his budget will offer people breathing space on both the cost of living and the cost of business. He said he was concerned about the rising price of fuel and that he wanted wealthy people to stay in Britain. In July, Andy Burnham, the prime minister, said that he would use "any flexibility" in the government's fiscal rules, but Healey was clear that there was no room for manoeuvre on the fiscal rules. Listen to the full interview to hear how he's getting notes in caps lock from Gordon Brown, his thoughts on bringing down the welfare bill and a Treasury Dragon's Den.Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesProducer: Euan DawtreyPicture: Getty Images