The State of It

Andy Burnham has pulled the lever marked ‘Brexit’, threatening to reignite the wars of yesteryear. The soft left are delighted, but there’s unease in his cabinet. Is this a route back to a referendum, or just a meagre SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) deal? Or is Burnham already firing the opening shots of his election campaign — at the expense of the leave-voting areas he promised to win over? Has he already failed the Makerfield test?It’s budget season, and speculation is mounting over what’s inside John Healey’s red box. This is billed as a budget for the high street: for the white van man and the beauticians of Rotherham, funded by a crackdown on online retail giants. But with John Lewis sounding the alarm, how far will the chancellor go?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - The Brexit Wars Return 02:51 - Why Andy Burnham Wants Closer EU Ties 05:25 - Nigel Farage Delighted & Secret Cabinet Rifts 08:04 - The Real Cost: Free Movement & Single Market Traps 10:50 - Is Labour Priming The Polls For An Early Election? 13:46 - Has Burnham Abandoned The 'Makerfield Test'? 17:46 - The Russia Claim: Anatomy Of A 24-Hour U-Turn 20:06 - "Authenticity" Or Chaos? Burnham's Loose Talk 22:25 - The Budget: John Healey Targets 'White Van Man' 26:11 - High Street vs Online Giants: Retailers Strike Back 28:56 - Historic Tax Hikes: Distracting From The Pain

Zack Polanski's defeat in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election puts him in a tough position. The Green leader lost the by-election by 3,300 votes to Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Labour candidate. He's also facing criticism after the Green Party voted to declare that Zionism is racism. Polanski did not vote and has been accused of failing to show leadership. How tenable is his position now?Plus, parliament is back next week and the real business of government gets going. We look at what's in store and how the chancellor, John Healey, is preparing for a very, very difficult budget.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducer: Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - By-Election Result: Labour Wins Holborn & St Pancras 00:36 - Is Zack Polanski’s Leadership in Trouble? 01:56 - Green Party Rifts & The Palestine Motion Controversy 07:34 - Is This the Beginning of the End for Polanski? 11:06 - Andy Burnham’s Electoral Boost & Labour’s Position 11:44 - Parliament Returns: Navigating the Autumn Budget 13:18 - John Healey, Treasury Trips, and Bank of England Warnings 16:39 - Defence Spending vs Public Services Dilemma 20:39 - Welfare Reviews, Jackdaw Gas Field & Election Speculation

Kemi Badenoch's attack on Reform UK was all about character and her attack on Labour was all about economics. In her speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she said she would to scrap inheritance tax on family homes and that under a Conservative government, couples would be able to leave an extra £1m inheritance tax free to their children.Badenoch was withering about Nigel Farage and Reform UK, saying: "The circus goes on and on and it will never stop because this is who Reform are — so to those who say ‘unite the right’, we are not uniting with that.”We look at the Conservatives' electoral strategy, their prospects — especially compared with a year ago — and the vibes among their MPs.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - Live from Tory Conference: Badenoch’s Speech Analysis00:41 - The Inheritance Tax Gamble: Family Homes Exempt02:01 - Strategic Shift: Winning Back the South & Abandoning the Red Wall05:14 - Why Immigration Was Dropped From the Main Message06:33 - "We Will Not Unite": Direct Rejection of Reform UK & Farage08:03 - Character vs. Policy: The New Strategy Against Reform10:45 - Key Omissions: Public Services and the NHS13:17 - Football Legends, Identity, and Patriotism17:36 - Vibe Check: A Surprisingly United Tory Party20:19 - Badenoch’s Dominance: "Captain, Manager, and Owner"22:13 - Path to Power: Rebuilding Economic Trust25:08 - Behind the Scenes: Bars, Protesters, and Business Access29:34 - Did Badenoch’s Speech Set the Political Weather?32:50 - Looking Ahead to the Budget

The Labour Party is jubilant. Andy Burnham has fired the starting gun for the next general election with one of the most consequential conference speeches in recent memory. He used it to set out a series of major proposals, including an end to the triple lock, the abolition of first-past-the-post and closer ties with Europe.At the heart of his national project is a care service free at the point of use. Burnham has set out a vision that promises to put Britain on a different road. But can he persuade the country to buy into it?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty Images

At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, the mood is jubilant. They have a popular leader who can speak fluently in public. Andy Burnham's speech on Tuesday will be a big moment and it's expected to be full of announcements. Whitehall and cabinet ministers are trying to keep up. The problem, as always, is making the sums add up. The prime minister has made social care the main topic of conversation. We discuss whether he is ready to ditch the triple-lock on pensions to pay for social care reform and whether he could fight an election promising tax rises.In Rachel Reeves's first budget, taxes went up more than £30 billion, and then she had to come back for more. The Treasury wanted to avoid a third tax-raising budget but the numbers are moving against them. Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty Images

John Healey, the chancellor, tells us his budget will offer people breathing space on both the cost of living and the cost of business. He said he was concerned about the rising price of fuel and that he wanted wealthy people to stay in Britain. In July, Andy Burnham, the prime minister, said that he would use "any flexibility" in the government's fiscal rules, but Healey was clear that there was no room for manoeuvre on the fiscal rules. Listen to the full interview to hear how he's getting notes in caps lock from Gordon Brown, his thoughts on bringing down the welfare bill and a Treasury Dragon's Den.Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesProducer: Euan DawtreyPicture: Getty Images

The Labour Party conference starts in Liverpool this weekend. It's a chance for Andy Burnham to lay out his vision for the country. Expect worldview, class, solidarity and hope. How much criticism is likely to come from allies of Keir Starmer? Darren Jones, Starmer's former right-hand-man, has been giving interviews. Will others do the same?Could Burnham call a snap election?An MRP mega poll for The Times and Sky News suggested that if an election were held now Labour would win 241 seats, the Conservatives would have 130 and Reform UK would be in third on 123 seats. The split on the right makes it tempting for Labour to call a snap election. Is that a realistic possibility?Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - Tactical Voting: The Left’s New “Cheat Code”? 00:10 - Heading to Liverpool: Navigating Labour Conference 01:26 - Decoding Andy Burnham’s “Hope Again” Vision & Liverpool Roots 04:07 - Inside Number 10: How the New Team is Bedding In 06:56 - The Reform UK Threat & Marginal Seat Panic 09:12 - The Dangers of Relying on Tactical Voting 14:10 - Snap Election Rumours: Is Burnham About to Gamble? 18:55 - Labour Infighting: Sacked Cabinet Ministers Strike Back 23:07 - Critiques From Within & What Success Looks Like 26:07 - John Healey Interview Preview

What a difference a year makesThe Labour Party conference awaits. Has Andy Burnham's folksy charm and optimism taken the party as far as it can, or can he consolidate power and popularity?Six-party politics A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News puts Reform UK and the Conservative Party on level pegging for the first time in 18 months. Thursday's mega poll, the first MRP from YouGov in a year, will be a fascinating snapshot of the shifting electoral tectonic plates. Labour MPs are pinning their hopes on a split on the right, but will Burnham's government be able to build enough support from potential Green and Liberal Democrat voters?What will Andy Burnham's government do about welfare? Three reports into work and benefits are imminent: Charlie Mayfield's recommendations about how to keep people in work, Alan Milburn's report into Neets (young people not in education, employment or training) and a government review of mental health conditions. All of them put the welfare system into the spotlight. The timing creates a political problem for the government because next month's budget will not address the welfare bill. Raising taxes without fixing welfare is difficult for a prime minister who has talked about the power of politics to change things. Meanwhile his chancellor, John Healey, is buffeted by rising borrowing costs, which hit £18.3 billion in August, up nearly a fifth on August last year.Brexit re-litigated?On the plane to New York, Andy Burnham refused to rule out rejoining the European Union. A year ago he said he hoped the UK would rejoin the EU in his lifetime. Could he really be tempted to try to boost economic growth by aligning more closely with the EU or putting rejoining the EU in the next manifesto?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducer: Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images

The Burnham Trump meetingAndy Burnham and Donald Trump will meet for the first time in New York next week. It's the biggest foreign policy moment in Burnham's premiership so far and there are many different ways in which it could go wrong. Burnham wants to be more confrontational with Trump than Starmer was...without damaging relations with the US.Autumn budget: the walls are closing inIt's now accepted that next month's budget will be a money-raising budget. Does the new government have a plan for growth?Are the Liberal Democrats still relevant?The Liberal Democrats are about to hold their conference and some of their MPs are worried that Ed Davey isn't doing enough as leader. We look at their electoral strategy and their prospects.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducer: Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty Images