Threat & Theory

By the time a crisis reaches the president’s desk, the “clean” options are gone. In this episode of Threat & Theory, Howard and Evan break down the Iran decision as three paths: (1) Washington sets objectives and owns escalation, (2) allies — especially Israel — inherit the choice and set the terms, or (3) strategic inaction, accepting the downstream costs of restraint.They unpack why “Is this the moment?” depends on three clocks: the capability clock (forces in theater), the regime stress clock (internal pressure and fracture risk), and the sequencing clock (Israel’s timelines and red lines). The conversation also tackles the most dangerous failure — escalation that changes nothing — plus the moral tension between sovereignty, intervention, and whether restraint becomes complicity. Finally, they zoom out to the global layer: what this decision signals about enforcement in a multipolar world — and what China and Russia are learning by watching.Threat & Theory cuts past headlines to examine pressure, power, intent, and the real-world logic behind national security decisions.

In this episode of Threat & Theory, Evan Burgher sits down with retired Naval Intelligence Officer Captain Howard Hart to demystify how the U.S. intelligence community actually works, and why it’s intentionally fragmented by design. Using China as the case study, Howard explains why there’s no single “China problem,” but many competing problem sets viewed through different agency lenses, from CIA’s strategic focus to NSA’s signals capabilities and DIA’s long-range defense priorities. The conversation breaks down what the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) really does (coordination, not command), why dissent and analytical competition matter, and how consensus products like the Annual Threat Assessment are built. They also unpack a key lesson from recent controversy: sometimes intelligence doesn’t fail because it’s wrong, it fails because it’s too cautious to be clear.

Is Iran on the brink of collapse—or are we misreading the signals? In this episode of Threat & Theory, we break down one of the most misunderstood questions in geopolitics: why Iran is not yet at the tipping point, despite ongoing protests, internal repression, and rising regional tension. Drawing on intelligence frameworks rarely discussed in public, we explain what “late Phase Two” actually looks like, why crackdowns don’t automatically signal regime failure, and how Iran’s ideological structure makes compromise nearly impossible. We also examine how diplomacy and military posture are moving in parallel, how October 7th exposed cracks in Iran’s deterrence architecture, and why the most dangerous moments often come before obedience breaks—not after. Iran isn’t collapsing, but the scaffolding is under real stress, the off-ramps are narrowing, and for the first time, the tipping point is clearly visible.

Moments of crisis don’t just reveal instability - they reveal how power actually works. In this episode, we examine what happens inside a state when pressure mounts and control is challenged. How governments decide when to tolerate unrest, when to suppress it, and when to escalate. What security forces are designed to do versus what they’re actually willing to do. And why public narratives often miss the real signals intelligence professionals watch for.Rather than focusing on headlines or viral moments, this episode breaks down the mechanics of state control, internal decision-making, and the thresholds that separate unrest from regime threat. It’s a sober look at how power responds under strain - and why the most important indicators are usually invisible to the public until it’s too late.

Iran is once again testing the limits of internal control. In this episode, we break down the latest wave of unrest inside the country and examine what the protests actually mean for regime stability. Who holds real power when the streets erupt? How do Iran’s layered security forces—from police to paramilitary units—operate differently than Western audiences often assume? And where are the true pressure points that could either suppress dissent or allow it to spread?Cutting through headlines and social media narratives, this episode looks at Iran’s internal security architecture, the regime’s decision-making calculus, and why protests alone rarely equal collapse—unless specific conditions align. This is a grounded assessment of what’s happening now, what likely comes next, and how intelligence professionals read moments like this differently than the public.

In a stunning escalation, the United States used military force to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and bring him to face federal charges - blurring the lines between war, law enforcement, and regime change. In this episode, we break down what actually happened, why the decision was made now, and how intelligence, military power, and geopolitics converged in a way rarely seen in the modern era. Beyond the headlines, we examine the strategic risks, legal implications, and what comes next when a leader is gone, but the system that sustained him remains.

In Episode 3 of Threat and Theory, we step away from today’s headlines and go deep into the personal journey behind the analysis. Former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, Captain Howard Hart walks us through his 30-year career—from a college graduate with no clear plan, to serving on watch floors around the world during some of the most consequential moments in modern history.We explore how someone actually gets into intelligence, what life is like aboard ships and aircraft carriers, how watch floors operate under real pressure, and how intelligence officers grow by rotating through wildly different missions—from submarines and missiles to NATO, the Pentagon, counter-narcotics, and combat deployments.Howard also shares the human side of service: leadership, mentorship, loss, family sacrifice, and why intelligence work ultimately comes down to disciplined research, clear thinking, and communicating truth under uncertainty.If you want to understand who hosts Threat and Theory - and why their perspective matters - this episode sets the foundation for everything that follows.Welcome back to Threat and Theory.

In Episode 2 of Threat and Theory, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer Howard Hart takes us inside how modern military and intelligence decisions are actually made - using Venezuela as a real-world case study.We break down the Joint Operations Planning Process step by step, explore how the intelligence cycle feeds commanders and policymakers, and examine how economic pressure, financial intelligence, and targeting decisions shape outcomes long before any shots are fired. From the rise of Hugo Chávez to the current rule of Nicolás Maduro, this episode traces how a once-wealthy nation became a narco-state - and why it matters to U.S. national security.Along the way, we connect doctrine to history, drawing lessons from Serbia, Desert Storm, and counterterror operations to show how intelligence drives real-world action.If you want to understand how strategy is built, options are weighed, and decisions move from analysis to execution - this is Threat and Theory at work.