The WeatherPod

In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers invite Irina Sandu, the Director of Destination Earth at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - the ECMWF - into the studio.

The guest this episode is Florian Pappenberger, Deputy-Director General & Director of Forecasts at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ECMWF.Hosts David Rogers and Alan Thorpe delve into the ECMWF's use of AI and how this may impact it's future products and services, especially when it comes to their use in the developing countries by meteorological services and other customers.Florian leads the ECMWF's Forecast Department which is responsible for the production of weather forecasts, forecast quality control, and the development of novel forecast products.ECMWF has for a while been experimenting with using deep learning to produce a data-based AI weather prediction model and last October Florian played a key role in the launch of the Artificial Intelligence / Integrated Forecasting System. This is the ECMWF's first forecasting system incorporating a machine learning prediction module.

In this special AI Episode, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers invite Amy McGovern into the studio to discuss the meaning of "trustworthy AI".Amy is Director of the National Science Foundation AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography - or AI2ES for short.She's also a Professor at Oklahoma University's School of Computer Science and School of Meteorology.Working under the University of Oklahoma's leadership, AI2ES brings together researchers in AI, atmospheric science, ocean science, and risk communication. The thinking is that accelerated AI research in the environmental sciences can improve understanding of the rapid changes taking place in weather patterns, oceans, sea level rise, and disaster risk. Amy's research focuses on developing and applying machine learning and data mining methods for real-world applications, with a specific interest in high-impact weather. Much of this work involves weather analytics or physical data science and she and her students are developing physics-based trustworthy AI methods as well as explainable AI. Their aim is to apply their work to high-impact weather phenomena, including tornadoes, hail, severe wind events, flooding, drought, and aircraft turbulence.A key aim is to help build a diverse and flexible science, technology, engineering, and mathematics workforce. Amy's thinking is that diversity will bring new ideas to the forefront, while flexibility is crucial to dealing with rapid changes in technology. To help this process, Amy and her team have developed outreach projects to encourage students to pursue STEM careers.This work aside, Amy also directs the Interaction, Discovery, Exploration and Adaptation - or IDEA - Lab at Oklahoma University. The Lab's focus is on developing and applying data science, AI and machine learning techniques for high-impact real-world applications.

In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers invite David Richardson of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - the ECMWF - into the studio.About David RichardsonDavid Richardson has over 35 years’ experience in weather forecasting research and operations at the UK Met Office and, until recently, as Head of Evaluation at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts or ECMWF. His work on ensemble prediction includes the configuration of ensembles to represent the uncertainties in the initial conditions and modelling systems, development of products and tools for forecast users, and evaluation of forecast performance.  Previously, he worked for the WMO where he played a key role in establishing the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble or TIGGE project on global ensemble forecasting - a project which led to improved understanding of predictability and also to improvements in forecasting skill. David has chaired several WMO committees, and is currently chair of the WMO Standing Committee on Data Processing for Applied Earth System Modelling, Prediction & Projection (SC-ESMP). SC-ESMP leads and co-ordinates the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS) which facilitates the provision of numerical earth-system model forecasts, including ensembles, to all WMO members.

In this special AI episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers open a new series of discussions which focus specifically on the use of Artificial Intelligence across the weather enterprise.In this first discussion, our hosts invite Professor Kirstine Dale of the UK Met Office into the studio.About Kirstine DaleKirstine Dale is the Met Office's Chief AI Officer (CAIO) and Principal Fellow for Data Science. As CAIO she is charged with embedding AI in the Met Office’s core business - initially focusing on the use of AI in weather forecasting through leadership of the ‘AI for Numerical Weather Prediction’ (AI4NWP) programme. As Principal Fellow, Kirstine plays a leading role in shaping the future of Data Science (including Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning) in the Met Office. Kirstine is also Co-Director of the Natural Environment Theme of the Turing Research and Innovation Cluster on Digital Twins (TRIC-DT) and an Honorary Professor at the University of Exeter.

In this special episode of the WeatherPod, hosts Alan and David have invited into the studio Irene Amuron of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Paul Davies of the UK Met Office, and Terrence Fernando the University of Salford, to debate the question: “How do we improve outcomes for everyone at risk from the impact of hydrometeorological hazards?” Societies are increasingly challenged by the need to cope with complex interconnected threats. Either a single hazard leads to a cascade of additional perils, often more significant effects than the primary one, or multiple independent hazards occur simultaneously. In each case, lack of planning and early preparation leads to the realisation of major adverse impacts on people and their livelihoods. Economic development may falter, and political instability becomes an added risk.Climate change compounds existing threats and poses new ones; many, outside the bounds of experience, require us to harness new knowledge and take a more holistic view of the immediate and future risks facing us. The problem affects all of society and a “whole of society” approach is needed. This is immensely challenging. Societal compacts and partnerships among more than a few groups of stakeholders are rarely sustained and we proceed with compartmentalised approaches where each sector attempts to solve its own problems with little or no insight into how sectoral interdependencies compound and exacerbate risks or how to reduce them.Two key concepts have emerged in the past decade as the means to improve people’s ability to handle different types of hazards – Anticipatory action and impact-based forecasting. Anticipatory action is a set of actions people can take to prevent harm to themselves and others before acute impacts are felt. Impact-based forecasts focus on what the hazard will do rather than what the hazard will be. In practice, anticipatory action and impact-based forecasts are complementary. Neither is effective without the other. “Good forecast but shame about the outcome” is a repeated mantra. So, for those impacts of hazards for which anticipatory action driven largely or in part by weather forecasts would make a difference, what isn’t being done right? Irene Amuron is Head of Anticipatory Action at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.Paul Davies is Principal Fellow, Meteorology and Chief Meteorologist at the UK MetOffice.Terrence Fernando is Director of the THINKlab at the University of Salford.Theme music by John Cockram