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The Why Curve is coming

Kwarteng’s budget has taken a hammering in the markets. Justified or an overreaction? We ask FT’s Martin Wolf and he doesn’t hold back on what he thinks.

Last week Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his ‘fiscal event’, unsupported by any analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility. He said we wouldn’t apologise for focusing on economic growth. He’s also refused to apologise for the market response, which has seen the pound sink to a record low and the Bank of England forced to step in and buy-up bonds to stop the collapse of many pension funds, suffering from rapidly rising longer-end gilt yields. Even if the approach was to work, is there any sense going for growth at a time when the central bank is trying to slow the economy down to subdue the rate of inflation? It’s a question Phil and Roger put to the FT’s Chief Economics Correspondent Martin Wolf. As you’ll hear in this week’s Why Curve, it’s clear he has a great many concerns about Kwarteng’s approach to managing the economy, not least his disregard to public debt. Growth, he says, won’t be resolved by cutting taxes. And investors focus on economies that are stable; we haven’t seen any of that the last few days.Burt what of those who say markets and commentators have over-reacted to Kwarteng’s budget. The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says all this conjecture is the “pathological catastrophism of the pro-Brussels commentariat.” Could he be talking about Martin?

Fiscal event or economic suicide?

A weak Tory prime minister, a dire economic crisis, a government seemingly set on making the rich richer while an election looms - an open goal for Labour surely? What could possibly go wrong? But the mood among the party faithful as they meet in conference in Liverpool is anything but confident. Corbynism may be buried, but Keir Starmer lacks charisma, his team are not exactly household names, and can YOU name a single Labour policy? Phil and Roger talk to David Kogan, Labour historian and adviser, about whether, after 12 years in opposition, the party can revive and be fit enough to aim once again for government.

Hard Labour

Vladimir Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China think their systems are better than ours. Who will win this war of ideas?

The Cold War was supposed to be over twenty years ago, but are China and Russia now a new bloc of autocracy, posed against western democracies in competition for global dominance? And do they have a point - are states where electors don’t have to be appeased every four or five years, better able to plan and make difficult decisions? Do Brexit and the presidency of Donald Trump show up the weak points of liberal democracy? On this week’s episode Phil and Roger raise all this with Dr Natasha Kuhrt, senior lecturer in international peace and security at King’s College London, and ask if the current Cold War with Beijing and Moscow could eventually turn hot.

Welcome to Cold War 2

Is the appointment of Liz Truss as PM a sign of a democratic deficit?

Is our democracy broken? We have a new prime minister - but who elected her? When a few Conservative party members have the choice of who holds the top job in the country, has something gone wrong with the system? When the last holder of that job (also chosen by the Tory membership) leaves with the appointment of his choice of his friends and supporters to the House of Lords, does it smell a bit of cronyism? This week Phil and Roger ask Robert Hazell, professor of government and the constitution at University College London, if the whole system needs an overhaul, and whether it's time for the ancient network of practices and understandings to be formalised into a written constitution. Is it time to take back control.....of our democracy?

"Well I didn't vote for her!"

Is the national broadcaster moving towards some kind of closedown? With the likely next prime minister challenging the BBC’s accuracy, and one of its most prominent former presenters questioning its impartiality, while the frozen licence fee and inflation mean it can do less and less, is there a better model of public service broadcasting? A century after its foundation, should the corporation cede the field to the newcomers - Netflix and Disney? Patrick Barwise, emeritus professor of management and marketing at London Business School and co-author of The War Against The BBC tells Phil and Roger why, despite its problems, the BBC remains a vital part of our national life and needs all of our support.&nbsp;

The Last Days Of The BBC?

The world is aiming for Net Zero, but will it ever make it?

The world knows we’ve got to break our addiction to fossil fuels, and we need to move to a future where we no long pollute our atmosphere. But how quickly can we reach this utopian future?&nbsp;How far are current worries about being able to afford to heat our homes going to delay Net Zero? Can we still enjoy the benefits of a growing economy without destroying the planet? Can we reach it quickly enough? Will we ever reach it? Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing put all that to Professor Richard Black from the Energy &amp; Climate Intelligence Unit, and find a strange optimism - he says renewable energy is paving the way, not just because of our concern for the environment, but also because it’s the most cost effective solution

Net Zero Chance?

Can we really rely on central banks to fix the inflation problem and solve the cost of living crisis?

UK inflation is now in double digits. We got there faster than expected and the Bank of England is likely to keep raising interest rates because they believe that’s the only way to contain prices. Not long ago the same bankers were arguing that there was no need for a change in their monetary policy because the problem was a transitory lack of supply. That’s still the case, of course, so why do they think hiking rates will make much difference now? This week Phil and Roger talk through the build-up to Britain’s cost of living crisis, and ask why is so much reliance being placed on the Bank of England to fix the problem.&nbsp;

Sleepwalking into a crisis

Has the government abandoned its plans to level-up the UK. Did it ever really have it mapped out anyway?

As prices rise everywhere, and poverty looms for many, whatever happened to the levelling-up that was supposed to equalise the more-deprived parts of Britain with the wealthy southeast? Almost 3 years after Boris Johnson won a stonking majority, winning-over former Labour seats in the “Red Wall”, have those areas seen any improvement in health, transport, skills-training and opportunities? There IS a plan - a white paper launched in February - but, with one of the candidates to be the next prime minister openly talking of channelling funds back to the southeast, is there any chance the plan will be more than just hot air? Paul Swinney, director of policy and research at Centre For Cities, guides Phil and Roger around what could be done to level up Britain and the prospects of it actually happening.

Levelling-Up Or Levelling Over?

Can Europe make it through winter without having to do a deal with Russia?

Winter is coming, and Europe is looking at a chilly one. Germans are told – take a cold shower or turn down the thermostat and use 15% less gas. And the European Commission is looking at EU-wide measures to deal with what could be a major crisis. It’s all because Russia is tightening the valves on the gas pipeline into the EU. Moscow says it’s technical problems but few doubt it’s pushback for the sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine invasion. Germany is especially reliant on Russian gas, but much of Europe is scurrying around to find alternative energy sources before winter arrives. How long will public sympathy for Ukraine last when the heating goes off? Will EU leaders face pressure from frozen pensioners to, maybe, compromise a little with Putin? Phil and Roger read the meters with Daniel Gros, Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies&nbsp;- and find out why he thinks Europe WILL get by without freezing&nbsp;

Putin's Foot on the Gas

Each week Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing get to grips with one issue that impacts our lives. It could be economic, social, technological or geopolitical. Whatever the subject, they'll talk to the experts who can give help explain what's really going on. And Phil and Roger back it up with their own research and opinions. It's half an hour to get across one of the key issues of the time, and they promise, it'll never be boring.

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Welcome to Cold War 2

"Well I didn't vote for her!"