The Why? Curve

The conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of easing and the threat of US involvement has heightened concerns about a war that is rapidly getting out of control. How does this end? Can Iran be forced away from building a nuclear bomb? Can Israel be reassured about its security? Is there a way to de-escalate when none of those involved seem to want that? Phil and Roger quiz Simon Mabon, Professor of International Politics at the University of Lancaster

More than a quarter of UK voters back a party that’s only got 5 MPs. Labour won a stonking majority in parliament last year with just over a third of the vote. What’s happening to our democracy? Does the system still work? Or is the social media-fuelled clamour for instant policy-fixes not suited to going to the ballot box once every five years? Is autocracy becoming more attractive to voters who want efficiency in government? Phil and Roger get the views of Scott Williamson, associate professor in Comparative Political Economy at Oxford University.

Is the Wild West of digital currency now becoming a respectable place to put your money? President Trump likes it, and his vice president, JD Vance, backs a US government digital reserve. Does that mean the crazy volatility of Bitcoin and the rest will calm down? Or is the essential ungovernability of blockchain money going to remain? Phil and Roger ask Dr Larisa Yarovaya, associate professor of finance and director of the centre for digital finance at Southampton University.

Billions in new spending for the UK’s defence, but how to spend it? Does Britain need more soldiers? More shells for artillery? More tanks? Or are drones the future of warfare? What has Ukraine’s war against Russia told us about what weapons we need to stand up to Putin? Dr Bence Nemeth, co-founder of the Centre for Defence Economics and Management at Kings College London, tells Phil and Roger what’s needed, and what’s affordable.

Keir Starmer has launched his bid to claim back migration policy from the right - talking about the UK becoming an “island of strangers” unless the number of incomers is slashed. But is he correct that this is at the top of voters’ list of concerns? Is tackling this what will win back the Red Wall? Do most Britons really want big cuts in the number of immigrants? Claire Kumar, senior researcher at ODI Global, tells Phil and Roger about her findings suggesting attitudes towards migration across the UK very different from those in snap opinion polls and tabloid headlines.

The confrontation between the two south Asian neighbours this month seems to have been resolved into a ceasefire. It is almost certainly only a pause of conflict, in a toxic relationship that has lasted since 1947. And the stakes have risen - both nations now have their finger on the nuclear trigger. That’s why the world shudders when New Delhi and Islamabad launch a new session of vituperation or actual violence. So can the nations find a way to live together harmoniously? Phil and Roger ask Kate Sullivan de Estrada, Associate Professor in the International Relations of South Asia at Oxford University.

The minerals deal between Washington and Kyiv is pretty opaque, but does it at least give the Trump administration a reason to stick with Ukraine? Or will the president just walk away from the whole crisis, as he has threatened? And can Kyiv keep the war going with just help from the Western European nations? Plus - why is Putin so opposed to a long ceasefire, when it could give him the chance to rearm and reset his forces? Phil and Roger put all this to Dr Stephen Hall, assistant professor of Russians and Post-Soviet Politics at the University of Bath

The leader of 1.4 billion Catholics is about to be decided by 132 men in red hats, locked away in a renaissance chapel beneath one of the greatest artworks in human history. The conclave of cardinals is supposed to be guided in its choice by the Holy Spirit, it will there also be some very secular political concerns dictating their votes? Do they want to continue Pope Francis’ progressive agenda, or, in the light of the conservative mood across the Atlantic, revert to more traditional positions on immigration, the plight of the poor and inclusion of minorities? Dr Sara Silvestri, senior lecturer in religion and international politics at City St George’s, tells Phil and Roger the church needs a conciliator as the new pope.

Local elections are usually a yawn, but the results next week could overturn the political geography of the UK. Will Reform, riding high in the polls, cause a Tory meltdown, unseating Kemi Badenoch? Will it suggest it’s more than just a protest party, and one that could be a contender for government? And what will happen when it leads councils and has to make actual policy decisions? Rohan McWilliam, senior lecturer in History at Anglia Ruskin University, and author of Popular Politics, lays out the prospects for Phil and Roger.