The Why? Curve

The aid tap is being turned off. USAID has suspended all its programmes and the UK is diverting much of the budget for overseas development to buying tanks and bombs. Projects to vaccinate, medicate and educate have been suspended for millions of the world’s poorest people. So what will happen? Will China step in to fill the gap? Will societies already in crisis collapse altogether? Michael Jennings, Professor of Global Development at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, tells Phil and Roger some people will die as a direct result, and the prospects of others finding a way out of poverty will be drastically set back.

Is the ceasefire going to happen? Will Moscow sign up? And where will it leave Ukraine - the country that was subject to the largest land war in Europe since 1945? Donald Trump has forced through Kyiv’s cooperation. Can he do the same with Russia? Does he even want to? David Galbreath, Professor of War and Technology at the University of Bath, sets out to Phil and Roger the likely next steps, as the chaotic diplomacy of President Trump careers onward.

Is cinema dying? The Oscars were the usual triumphant mix of glamour, glitz and terrible speeches, but is the film industry what it was? Streaming, video games, Covid and the cost of living have led to a downturn in audience figures in the US and the UK, although there are faint signs of a revival. Do we still want to sit passively in a big dark room to be entertained, or would we rather be in our own homes, interacting with the characters and stories? Does the old model of cinema still work? Sarah Atkinson, Professor of Screen Media at King’s College London, tells Phil and Roger it will survive but it needs to change.

Taking over Greenland, turning Gaza into a US resort, switching sides over Ukraine - the world has faced a whirlwind of Trump initiatives in the opening weeks of his presidency, some madcap, some sinister. How are foreign leaders and diplomats supposed to deal with this? Is he serious? Or is he just trolling the international liberal establishment? Or a bit of both? Is it best to flatter the man in the White House and hope he can be persuaded to change his mind? Or should we write America off as a reliable ally, and rush to build our own defences? After the last 4 weeks, what will still be standing at the end of four years? Dr Maria Ryan, Associate Professor of American History at Nottingham University not to assume anything is off the table with Donald Trump. 

Labour is promising 12 new New Towns across England, to spur growth and provide housing. But those who know Telford, Milton Keynes, Welwyn Garden City and the rest might question the model - concrete social engineering hasn’t always been successful in bringing prosperity, especially if there aren’t enough jobs in the area where they’re built. But is there a case for New towns as regeneration in the country’s forgotten and neglected parts? Can we build better and more effectively than we did in the 50s and 60s? Phil and Roger hear from Amrita Kulka, Associate Professor of Political Economy and Public Economics at the University of Warwick.

Donald Trump wants big tariffs on US imports, and the countries affected are threatening retaliation - it’s the beginning of a trade war, with China, Canada, Mexico, the EU and others weighing in. So how does Britain ride this out? Can Keir Starmer’s government find ways not to get caught in the crossfire, and maybe even benefit from not being high on Donald Trump’s target list? Or do we need to get onside with the non-US nations in this fight for the future of global commerce? Simon French, chief economist and head of research at Panmure Liberum, takes Phil and Roger through the UK’s options

Emails on the beach - we all left the office in 2020, and some of us never went back. But is business calling time now on working from home? Is it part of the problem for UK productivity? Are we working as hard when we can Zoom in from the sofa? Or is hybrid working, Tuesday to Thursday in the office, the new normal? Abigail Marks, Professor of the Future of Work at Newcastle University speaks to Roger and Phil… from her living room

The 47th president of the United States has begun his administration with a rush of executive orders intended to change the direction of the US. Some seem destructive but predictable - moving against undocumented migrants and re-leaving the Paris Climate Accord. Others just MAGA crowd-pleasers - declaring there are only two genders and renaming the Gulf of Mexico. But what does freeing the people who assaulted police officers in the Capitol on January 6 suggest about justice under Trump? What does leaving the World Health Organisation say about America's place in the world? Will the US become a very different sort of country in the next four years, or will it all be reversed with a disillusioned electorate and a Democrat victory in 2028? Phil and Roger get the picture from Dr Thomas Gift, Associate Professor of Political Science at UCL, and founding Director of the UCL Centre on US Politics.