The Why? Curve

A year after October 7 and the landscape shaped over decades is irrevocably changed - Palestinians and Israelis killed in unprecedented numbers, Hezbollah and Hamas decapitated, Iran humiliated. And no end in sight to the bloodshed and destruction. So where have the pieces fallen? What chance of any kind of ceasefire on any front?What hope for the remaining Israeli hostages? Will things change further after the election hiatus in the US - Israel's biggest backer? Can Prime Minister Netanyahu cling to power indefinitely? Simon Mabon, Professor of International Politics at Lancaster University, tells Phil and Roger what the next year might bring

The Tory ship seems rudderless, and the vote for a new captain less than enthralling. After their underwhelming Birmingham conference, what hope is there for the Conservatives - hitherto the most successful political organisation in Europe? With the fewest MPs in its history, and missing many of the former big beasts of Toryism, does the party’s salvation lie in lurching further to the right to win back supporters from Reform? Or is the safe ground in the centre where the Lib Dems have drained their vote? Phil and Roger get the views of Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, and Thor of “The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation”

The Labour Party in government for the first time in 14 years, but this week’s party conference seemed an exercise in damage control rather than celebration - delegates voting against the cabinet on winter fuel payments, and cabinet ministers having to announce they won’t accept any more free clothes or glasses. How did the honeymoon end so soon? Or is the scale of the problems they have inherited so daunting it requires harsh medicine that will never make them popular? With such a huge parliamentary majority, do they, in any case, need to care? Matthew Flinders, Professor of Politics at the University of Sheffield, tells Phil and Roger their biggest problem is the lack of an overall strategic vision.

Are we all failing to become adults? Does the world treat us as if we need to be told to carry a water bottle on a train, or hold onto a handrail, or that a bag of nuts may contain…. nuts? The way our politics and culture like simple messages and avoid challenge or risk or complexity suggests to some that we are becoming an infantile society, incapable of understanding nuance or facing the world of adults. Phil and Roger talk about all this with Keith Hayward, Professor of Criminology at the University of Copenhagen, and author of the book ”Infantilised: How Our Culture Killed Adulthood”.  

X banned in Brazil. The boss of Telegram detained in France. Is state power finally moving to curb the big social media sites? There’s been a lot of talk about reining-in X, TikTok, Instagram, Snap and the rest, but have governments now decided make the sites accountable for the harm they cause - misinformation, child abuse and societal division? Or are the Elon Musks still beyond control and regulation? Robin Mansell, Professor of New Media and the Internet at the London School of Economics, tells Roger and Phil the economic pressure from advertisers will probably be a more effective curb.

Keir Starmer is pushing for a reset of relations with the European Union, but has ruled out rejoining in his lifetime. So how close can or should the UK get? How welcome is Britain in Brussels after all the Brexit grief? And does the changing tone of public opinion here mean he can easily get past the toxicity of Brexit for both the Labour Party and the country? David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Project at the European Centre For International Political Economy, tells Phil and Roger how the path back to the EU might begin.

Interest rates, inflation, monetary control. What is it that central bankers actually do - and are they the right people to be doing it? The last decades have seen huge turbulence in the global economy - the Great Recession, then post-Covid inflation, so is the system working? Is it right that a political decision - balancing price-rises against the cost of borrowing - should be in the hands of unelected bankers? Dominic Caddick of the New Economics Foundation takes Phil and Roger through what the central bankers can do, and how their job could be made more effective.

Happy days are here again for the Democrats, as their new candidates gear up for the US presidential election. But does the razzmatazz conceal a weakness on the ticket that will be exposed once Harris and Walz have to face hostile interviewers? Dr Thomas Gift, Associate Professor of Political Science at UCL and founding director of the Centre on US Politics tells Phil and Roger why he still thinks there could still be a Trump victory in November.

Riots and disorder on a scale Britain hadn’t seen in a decade, but then the streets re-taken by anti-racist crowds - what to make of what happened after the Southport stabbings? Keir Starmer said the white men throwing rocks and setting fire to hotels were “far right”. Was he correct? And what does “far right” mean? Is it a coherent political force in the UK, or just a bunch of drunken yobs? Phil and Roger look at the evidence with Aurelien Mondon of Bath University and the Reactionary Politics Research Network.