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The Underdog NFL Show
Episode 274: Chaos in Cleveland
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00:13 – Cold Open & Personality Tangent
Chris and Mario open with storytelling about classroom punishment, performance, and why unintended encouragement often fuels confidence and showmanship.
04:33 – Super Bowl Gap & Browns Chaos Setup
They note the awkward timing before Super Bowl week and pivot hard to Cleveland, setting up a deep dive into one of the league’s messiest coaching situations.
04:56 – Browns Hire Todd Monken, Fallout Begins
Discussion of Cleveland hiring Todd Monken after failing to align with preferred candidates, why the choice feels uninspired, and how internal demands fractured the search.
07:15 – Jim Schwartz Exit & Defensive Consequences
Reaction to Jim Schwartz wanting out after being passed over, concerns for defensive stability, and how this decision could ripple into roster dissatisfaction.
08:15 – Shador Sanders, QB Reality Check
They discuss Sanders’ Pro Bowl nod, Cleveland’s long-term QB uncertainty, and why Monken’s success with Lamar Jackson doesn’t automatically translate.
12:46 – College Football Age Inflation & Draft Optics
Conversation about extended eligibility, older prospects, and why teams must balance production with shortened development windows.
13:26 – Akheem Mesidor vs Youth Prospects
Detailed breakdown of Mesidor’s elite pressure numbers, age concerns, and how win-now teams may value certainty over upside.
17:30 – Fernando Mendoza Lock at No. 1
Discussion of Mendoza as the presumed top pick, oddsmakers’ certainty, Raiders fit, personality questions, and leadership challenges.
22:26 – Raiders Roster, WR Fits & Free Agent Market
Wide-ranging debate on which receivers actually help a young QB, cultural fit vs talent, and why most free-agent options feel uninspiring.
32:18 – Diva WR History & Modern Comparisons
Lighthearted but pointed segment ranking historical diva WR duos and comparing them to today’s personalities.
42:22 – Eagles OC Search & Matt Nagy Skepticism
Strong criticism of retread coordinator hires, Nagy’s offensive track record, and why Philly needs upside, not safety.
45:25 – Schefter Tease & Coaching Uncertainty
Reaction to Adam Schefter hinting bigger changes may be coming, including speculation beyond coordinator hires.
48:07 – Josh Allen, Bills & Promotion Risks
Discussion of Buffalo promoting internally, how QB scrutiny shifts when staff changes stall, and long-term risk.
55:35 – Lamar Jackson Trade Prop Shock
Oddsmakers list Lamar Jackson-to-Raiders futures, sparking disbelief, mock trade exploration, and broader league instability talk.
59:03 – Browns QB Wild Cards & Offseason Outlook
Brief thoughts on Cleveland’s remaining options and why the offseason hype may not deliver.
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290: Week 2 NFL Games
01:03:53|The Underdog NFL Show returns for Week 2 with Chris Horwedel and Mario Hines working through the full NFL slate after a chaotic opening weekend. They revisit the biggest Week 1 takeaways, injuries, quarterback questions and offensive-line concerns while previewing every matchup. The episode closes with a look at several Week 2 specials.0:13 Opening: Week 1 surprises and the challenge of getting through the full NFL slate.2:19 Lions-Bills: Detroit’s secondary, Jahmyr Gibbs’ workload, Jameson Williams and Buffalo’s opener.7:20 Panthers-Falcons: Atlanta’s quarterback issues, Bijan Robinson, Bryce Young and Carolina’s defense.10:27 Bengals-Texans: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, C.J. Stroud and Houston’s defense.12:26 Browns-Buccaneers: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland’s offensive line, Quinshon Judkins and Baker Mayfield.15:43 Packers-Jets: Green Bay’s Week 1 collapse, New York’s outlook and Tennessee’s long-term QB situation.17:47 Vikings-Bears: Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson and Chicago’s offense.24:45 Saints-Ravens: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and New Orleans’ run defense.26:38 Eagles-Titans: Philadelphia’s interior offensive line, Landon Dickerson, Saquon Barkley and Tennessee.31:47 Steelers-Patriots: Drake Maye, New England’s depleted weapons and Pittsburgh’s outlook.35:31 Jaguars-Broncos: Bo Nix, Denver’s offense, Jacksonville’s ceiling and the Drew Brees-Broncos story.42:30 Raiders-Chargers: Justin Herbert, Mike McDaniel, the Chargers’ offense and Fernando Mendoza’s timeline.50:29 Dolphins-49ers: Miami’s roster concerns, San Francisco’s Australia trip and the Rams’ Week 1 context.52:56 Seahawks-Cardinals: Drew Lock, Seattle’s offense and Arizona’s early-season test.54:09 Commanders-Cowboys: Dallas’ Week 1 issues, Washington’s defensive scheme and Jalen Hurts’ middle-field success.56:23 Week 1 stats: passing, rushing, receiving, sacks and tackle leaders.1:00:06 Colts-Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Daniel Jones and Kansas City’s outlook.1:00:40 Giants-Rams: Jackson Dart, New York’s young core and Los Angeles’ reset after Australia.1:01:17 Betting specials: Week 2 boosted parlays and the Giants-Rams prop package
289: Drake Maye - Top 10 Quarterback
01:01:33|The Underdog NFL Show previews the complete NFL Week 1 slate, with Chris Horwedel and Mario Hines breaking down every matchup, roster question, and early-season pressure point. The episode opens with online privacy before moving into Patriots-Seahawks and the NFL’s Australia game. Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Stroud, and Drake May become major discussion points. The show closes with the remaining Sunday and Monday matchups.0:13 Intro, Mario’s Future Chefs photo, online privacy, data-removal services and spam calls.9:27 Patriots-Seahawks: Super Bowl rematch, New England’s offseason, Seattle’s line and Sam Darnold.15:57 49ers-Rams in Melbourne: travel, Aaron Donald and Christian McCaffrey’s workload and career trends.24:09 Falcons-Steelers: Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh’s offense, Atlanta’s secondary and Mike Tomlin.31:34 Ravens-Colts: Daniel Jones’ Achilles return and Baltimore’s new era.32:45 Bills-Texans: C.J. Stroud’s contract expectations, Houston’s offense and Buffalo’s outlook.40:27 Bears-Panthers: Caleb Williams, Drake May comparisons and Carolina.44:52 Drake Maye QB-ranking debate against Hurts, Love, Goff, Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, Stafford, and others.54:44 Jets-Titans: Geno Smith, Cam Ward and Tennessee.55:45 Browns-Jaguars: Cleveland’s QB situation and Jacksonville’s offense.55:59 Saints-Lions: New Orleans’ roster and Detroit.56:32 Buccaneers-Bengals: Baker Mayfield’s deal, Joe Burrow and Cincinnati.57:26 Cardinals-Chargers: Arizona and Mike McDaniel’s Chargers offense.58:40 Packers-Vikings: Kyler Murray, Kevin O’Connell and Minnesota’s QB situation.1:01:30 Dolphins-Raiders: Malik Willis, Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza and Miami’s rebuild.1:04:04 Eagles-Commanders: Philadelphia’s defense, Washington’s line and Jayden Daniels.1:05:05 Cowboys-Giants: Malik Nabers, New York’s defense and Dallas.1:08:25 Broncos-Chiefs: Denver’s expectations and Kansas City.
288: Divisional Predictions
46:02|The Underdog NFL Show previews every NFL division, Eagles and Lions roster decisions, Hurts-A.J. Brown, the Wednesday opener, Kirk Cousins and the Raiders, Joe Burrow’s future, NFL roster ages, and conference/Super Bowl futures ahead of Week 1.0:13 Intro from Azerbaijan, Qarabağ FK, NFL kickoff week, and oddsmakers’ season markets.3:54 Lions roster cuts, Greg Dortch and Detroit’s preseason outlook.5:20 Eagles cuts: four quarterbacks, International Pathway prospects, Carson Steele and Jalen Hurts-A.J. Brown.9:17 NFL’s rare Wednesday opener and the 2012 Cowboys-Giants precedent.12:44 NFC West: Rams, Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals outlook.16:00 NFC East: Eagles, Cowboys, Giants and Commanders, including offensive-line and quarterback questions.21:11 NFC South: Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers and Falcons roster outlook.25:37 NFC North: Lions, Bears, Packers and Vikings, plus Micah Parsons and Harrison Smith.33:34 AFC West: Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders with Kirk Cousins starting in Las Vegas.35:31 AFC East: Bills, Patriots, Jets and Dolphins, plus Buffalo-New England expectations.41:35 AFC South: Texans, Jaguars, Colts and Titans, plus NFL roster-age comparisons.48:06 AFC North: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers and Browns, Joe Burrow’s future and an Eagles hypothetical.49:57 NFC/AFC championship and Super Bowl futures discussion.51:21 Close and look ahead to Week 1.
287: The Epitome of Competent
56:18|0:13 Intro: Za’Darius Smith’s retirement story and NFL return.5:05 College eligibility: Da’Quan Wright, NFL-to-college returns, conference bans, and draft questions.9:55 NIL economics: college QB salaries vs NFL rookies, Darian Mensah, Dante Moore, Trinidad Chambliss, Arch Manning, Dylan Raiola and Bryce Underwood.17:04 College football futures and Michigan/Michigan State title odds.21:30 NFL ends the Pro Bowl game; what the honor means going forward.24:17 NFL watchability 32–21: Browns, Dolphins, Titans, Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders, Steelers, Jets, Saints, Giants, Chiefs and Panthers.37:20 Rankings 20–15: 49ers, Colts, Packers, Jaguars, Bills and Eagles; Travis Hunter, Jalen Hurts and Philly’s defense.46:38 Eagles outlook: DeVonta Smith receptions and Saquon Barkley rushing totals.48:15 Rankings 14–10: Buccaneers, Commanders, Texans, Ravens and Broncos.54:22 Rankings 9–5: Vikings, Seahawks, Bengals, Cowboys and Patriots.57:53 Rankings 4–1: Chargers, Lions, Rams and No. 1 Chicago Bears.1:01:40 Close and look ahead to the NFL season.
286: Football Season is Here
01:02:55|0:13 Chris Horwedel and Mario Hines return with Ole Miss players seeking another eligibility year after signing NFL deals, plus NIL, transfers, and college-football eligibility rules.11:34 Seattle’s secondary overhaul: Trevon Diggs, Terrion Arnold and Devon Witherspoon.13:45 TV and movie talk: Widow’s Bay, Hard Knocks, Spider-Man, Doomsday and Murder 101.27:33 Detroit Lions outlook, Jaden Higgins’ ACL injury and Houston receiver depth.29:38 Chris discusses Why We Love This Club, Yesterday in Sports and other Underdog shows.33:26 NFC futures: Detroit, the Rams, Aaron Donald, Seattle and Philadelphia.43:14 Pistons roster-building leads into the Knicks, Spurs, Thunder, 76ers, Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James.53:18 NBA cap-circumvention talk centers on Steve Ballmer, Kawhi Leonard and league enforcement.55:50 Eagles outlook: receivers, secondary, Jalen Carter, Moro Ojomo, Nolan Smith and the defensive front.1:00:20 Saquon Barkley’s 2026 outlook and rushing-yard expectations.
285: 2026 AFC North Standings Predictions
18:57|On this episode of The Underdog NFL Show, Chris Horwedel delivers a complete 2026 AFC North preview, breaking down the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns ahead of a season filled with coaching changes, quarterback questions and major roster turnover.Baltimore enters as the division favorite despite replacing John Harbaugh, changing offensive coordinators and losing several important contributors, including Tyler Linderbaum. Chris examines Lamar Jackson’s health, Derrick Henry’s continued dominance, Zay Flowers’ emergence and the Ravens’ attempt to rebuild their pass rush by adding Trey Hendrickson. The draft brought offensive lineman Vega Ioane, edge rusher Zion Young and receivers Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah “Waffle House” Sarratt.The Bengals remain one of the NFL’s most dangerous teams whenever Joe Burrow is healthy. Chris analyzes Cincinnati’s elite group of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown, along with the offensive line’s responsibility to keep Burrow available. After fielding one of football’s worst defenses, the Bengals responded by adding Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger.Pittsburgh begins a new era after Mike Tomlin’s departure. Mike McCarthy takes over as head coach and reunites with Aaron Rodgers for the quarterback’s final NFL season. The Steelers added Michael Pittman Jr., Rico Dowdle, Jamel Dean, Asante Samuel Jr. and Jaquan Brisker while drafting tackle Max Iheanachor, receiver Germie Bernard and developmental quarterback Drew Allar.Cleveland continues rebuilding around a talented young defense after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams for Jared Verse and multiple premium draft picks. Chris reviews the Browns’ crowded quarterback competition involving Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green. Cleveland also rebuilt its offensive line and added first-round receiving help with K.C. Concepcion and Denzel Boston.The episode compares each team’s free-agent additions, departures, draft classes, roster strengths and biggest concerns. Chris also reviews the latest AFC North, conference, Super Bowl and Week 1 markets from oddsmakers before revealing his projected divisional order and the team he believes offers the most interesting value.
284: 2026 AFC East Standings Predictions
24:09|On this episode of The Underdog NFL Show, Chris Horwedel continues the offseason division preview series with a full breakdown of the AFC East. The show covers team-by-team offseason movement, major trades, free-agent additions, key losses, draft picks, division odds, Super Bowl futures, and Chris’ final projected order for the division.The episode opens with the Buffalo Bills, who enter as the AFC East favorites behind Josh Allen. Chris breaks down Buffalo’s trade for DJ Moore, the importance of giving Allen a proven receiver, and the team’s offensive line additions including Austin Corbett, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Connor McGovern. He also looks at the defensive turnover, with major departures including Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Tre’Davious White, Taylor Rapp, Jordan Poyer, and more. Buffalo’s draft starts with Clemson edge rusher TJ Parker and Ohio State corner Davison Igbinosun, reinforcing a defense that lost a lot of experience. Chris explains why the Bills still have the safest floor in the division, but may be more volatile than the odds suggest.The New England Patriots are next, and Chris makes the case that their offseason may be the strongest in the AFC East. After going 14-3 and reaching the Super Bowl, New England adds A.J. Brown in a blockbuster trade with the Eagles, signs Romeo Doubs, brings in Alijah Vera-Tucker, Reggie Gilliam, Dre’Mont Jones, K.J. Britt, Kindle Vildor, and Kevin Byard, and continues building around Drake Maye. The Patriots’ draft starts with Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, followed by Illinois edge Gabe Jacas and Notre Dame tight end Eli Raridon. Chris questions why the Patriots are not favored to win the division after adding high-end talent to a roster that already won the AFC East.The New York Jets section focuses on a team trying to become functional again after a 3-14 season and a historically low takeaway total. Chris breaks down the trade for Geno Smith, Breece Hall’s extension, the defensive additions of Joseph Ossai, David Onyemata, T’Vondre Sweat, Demario Davis, Andre Cisco, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, plus the losses of Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jermaine Johnson, and Quincy Williams. The Jets’ draft includes No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, tight end Kenyon Sadiq, wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., corner D’Angelo Ponds, and quarterback Cade Klubnik. Chris likes the idea of the Jets improving, but not enough to threaten Buffalo or New England yet.The Miami Dolphins close the team breakdown, and Chris describes their offseason as a full reset. Miami moves on from Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Alec Ingold, Darren Waller, Bradley Chubb, Kader Kohou, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and other key pieces. Malik Willis arrives as the new quarterback on a three-year deal, De’Von Achane gets extended, and Miami adds players like Tutu Atwell, Jalen Reagor, Jalen Tolbert, Greg Dulcich, David Ojabo, Josh Uche, and others. The Dolphins’ 13-player draft class is led by Alabama offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor, San Diego State corner Chris Johnson, Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, and several offensive skill-position swings. Chris sees real long-term value in the draft, but views Miami as a team at the beginning of a rebuild.The episode ends with Chris’ AFC East prediction: New England Patriots first, Buffalo Bills second, New York Jets third, and Miami Dolphins fourth. He explains why picking against Josh Allen feels risky, but ultimately favors New England’s cleaner offseason, stronger roster-building logic, and more complete identity. Using odds from oddsmakers, Chris highlights Patriots to win the division and the exact order of Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins as his favorite AFC East angles.
283: 2026 NFC West Standings Predictions
28:07|Chris Horwedel closes out the NFC preview series on The Underdog NFL Show with a full breakdown of the NFC West heading into the 2026-27 NFL season. In this episode, Chris goes team by team through the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks, looking at each team’s offseason moves, free-agent signings, trades, NFL Draft picks, roster strengths, statistical profile, and projected division finish.The show starts with the Arizona Cardinals, who enter a full reset after moving on from Kyler Murray, hiring Mike LaFleur, and drafting Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick. Chris looks at whether Arizona can build a real offensive identity around Love, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, and rookie quarterback Carson Beck.From there, the focus shifts to the Los Angeles Rams, the NFC West favorites and one of the top Super Bowl contenders. Chris breaks down the Rams’ aggressive offseason, including the blockbuster addition of Myles Garrett, the trade for Trent McDuffie, and the selection of Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson as a possible long-term successor to Matthew Stafford. With Stafford coming off an MVP season and the Rams adding elite defensive talent, Chris explains why Los Angeles may have the highest ceiling in the NFC.The San Francisco 49ers are next, and Chris discusses how strange it is that a 12-win team could still feel like a third-place projection in this division. He looks at the additions of Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Osa Odighizuwa, Dre Greenlaw’s return, and a draft class focused on receiver, pass rush, running back, offensive line, and defensive depth.Finally, Chris turns to the Seattle Seahawks, who won the NFC West at 14-3 but still enter the season behind the Rams on the odds board. He examines Seattle’s elite defense, physical running game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba extension, continuity-based offseason, and draft-day addition of Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price.Chris wraps the show by comparing the NFC West odds, Super Bowl odds, NFC Championship odds, number-one seed market, and exact division order prices from Lucky Rebel, ultimately landing on Rams first, Seahawks second, 49ers third, and Cardinals fourth.
282: 2026 NFC South Standings Predictions
32:57|On this special edition of **The Underdog NFL Show**, Chris Horwedel continues his 2026 NFL division preview series with a full breakdown of the NFC South. After previously covering the NFC East and NFC North, Chris turns to one of football’s most unpredictable divisions, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons all enter the season with real questions and possible paths to the top.The episode looks at every NFC South team’s offseason moves, free-agent additions, trades, draft class, roster strengths, quarterback situation, division odds, Super Bowl odds, NFC Championship odds, finishing-position markets, and exact-order betting options from oddsmakers.Chris begins with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who enter as the division favorite despite losing franchise icon Mike Evans to San Francisco. He breaks down Baker Mayfield’s stability, the additions of Kenneth Gainwell and Cade Otton, Tampa Bay’s defensive reinforcements, and a defense-heavy draft led by Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr.Next, the defending division champion Carolina Panthers get the spotlight. Chris discusses Bryce Young’s development, the importance of improved pass protection, major defensive additions Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, the Panthers’ investment in the offensive line with Monroe Freeling, and why Carolina may be more dangerous than the market suggests.The New Orleans Saints section focuses on Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Travis Etienne, Jordyn Tyson, Noah Fant, Tyree Wilson, Cam Jordan’s final season, and whether New Orleans added enough offensive firepower to climb back into contention.Finally, Chris examines the Atlanta Falcons, including the unusual Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa quarterback setup, Drake London’s massive extension, Kyle Pitts’ uncertain future, Atlanta’s pass rush, Avieon Terrell, Zachariah Branch, Harold Perkins Jr., and the team’s wide range of possible outcomes.Chris closes with his NFC South prediction: Tampa Bay first, Carolina second, New Orleans third, and Atlanta fourth, while highlighting Tampa-Carolina as his favorite order-based betting angle.