The Other Hand

Trump is impossible to forecast - so should we stop trying? Is talking about him merely enabling him? Colluding with him?There is a spiders-web of connections between Trump and Brexit.Farage, Le Pen and Orban have a new spring in their step.Brexiteers still hanker after a free trade deal with the US. They must confront the reality of a protectionist US President - and government.One way Trump could make mischief would be to implement his global tariffs but offer the UK an exemption. The British government could hardly say no. But that would blow out of the water all of their efforts 'to get closer to the EU'. That would be the end of the 'rebuilding trust' project.Brexit is now too difficult to talk about. It may even be a problem too difficult to solve. Most Britons agree that Brexit was a mistake but is now a problem child best kept hidden.Electorates everywhere want anything but the truth.A fabulous conversation with Professor Chris Grey

The list of reasons why Trump won is getting longer. Some make sense, some do not. We look at the evidence-based ones. One very stark conclusion: not every Trump voter thinks all that positively about the President-elect. It's simply that they find the Democratic Party even more repulsive.The Trump trade is on. The stock market loves the prospect of trade wars, budget-busting tax cuts and mass deportations. Something doesn't add up.Incumbent governments everywhere are having a very hard time. The outgoing Irsh coalition should take note.Old media is as wounded as the opinion poll industry. Podcasting helped win it for Trump. A billion spent on TV ads did nothing for Harris.

Well, we said it was the year of election. Now we live with the consequences.

The first UK budget ever delivered by a female Chancellor was presented with aplomb and panache. A pity the details didn’t match up to the presentation.

Germany is in economic trouble. Its car industry - 7% of the economy - is being squeezed by struggling exports (to China in particular) and a poorly handled transition to EVs.Add in problems that go back decades and maybe its time to become a Eurosceptic again. If Trump wins, the Democrats need to look in mirror.

Loads of men (mostly) say their favourite movie is The Godfather. Plenty also rate the Sopranos as the best TV series ever. Is that because they secretly (and not so secretly these days) would love to have a Mafiosi's unchecked power?Brexit is the most contemporary example of people saying the system doesn't work for them and then replacing it with something far worse. The US appears to be on the verge of making the same mistake.Unchecked power accompanied by extreme wealth turns people mad.The checks and balances built into the US constitution were put there by people who recognised the dark side of human nature. They designed a system with guardrails explicitly put there to protect against someone like Trump rising to power.Trump unchained will be nothing like the Trump of his first reign. There is nobody left, even on the Supreme Court, to hold him back.

It's easy to conclude that we are a violent species. Just look at the state of the world.In a quite brilliant book, Professor Christopher Blattman argues that history books can give a misleading impression: on most days, war doesn't happen.Blattman has read everything. He has talked to the street gangs of Chicago and drug lords in Colombia. He summarises his vast knowledge with five main reasons why going to war - rathe than making peace - seems to happen. Armed (pardon the pun) with this knowledge, policy makers can get better at peace making.But, he warns, most policies are wrong, or likley to be. Grand, big theories of everything are best avoided. He urges a 'marginal' approach, perhaps best described as 'suck it and see'. Take baby steps and prepare to fail. But keep going. Small steps may mean you won't make big mistakes.It's hard to end wars but they always do. It's the terms that matter. It looks like Putin is going to win in Ukraine.Even more seriously, are China and America stuck in the same trap that drove ancient Sparta and Athens to war? That's the famous Thucydides Trap.A truly fabulous discussion. Our thanks to Shane.

Irish house prices are now well in excess of their pre-financial crisis peaks. Is the only thing that will get them down an old fashioned recession? More supply is certainly needed but it is far from clear that more houses equals lower prices - other things are not equalWhy do we still bang on about a cost of living crisis when inflation has fallen towards zero? If not actually zero. May be the answer is really simple: in the US (and probably elsewhere) food and energy price inflation reached 40% in 2022 - higher even than during the great energy shock of 1973. Europe has more problems than lower interest rates can solveEven if people have more letters after their name than are in their name, they are still capable of saying daft things.