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The Other Hand
Politics & opinion polls in Ireland, UK & US. Why are Sinn Fein suffering because of immigration? Have they lost vital momentum?
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Opinion polls on both sides of the Atlantic tell fascinating stories. Sinn Fein has lost momentum. Have they peaked too soon? Rishi Sunak's Tories are now polling at lower levels that the nadir of Liz Truss' government. That really is some going. Trump breaks wind audibly in court, hears stories about his sexual peccadillos and goes up in the polls.
It is said that SF are suffering because 'they have let their electorate down because of immigration'. Right wing parties everywhere, including Ireland, are on the rise because of the immigration issue. Yet right wing governments in power in the UK and Italy show how hard - impossible even - 'solving' immigration is.
Is it really true that immigrants take jobs? Spoiler alert: no.
What are SF's actual policies? Are they like the UK's Labour party, a policy-free zone? Long on promises, short on what they will do?
We are almost certainly still filling our cars with Russian fuel.
China and Russia deepen ties. China enables the Russian war machine. China has the best batteries.
Global stock markets continue to tell us: 'don't worry, be happy!
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A central banker urges government to spend. That's a sentence we never thought we would write
33:39|A prominent ex central banker has suggested that Ireland should spend the money: it's time, he says, for 'Jam today'. That's our interpretation, at least, of his only slightly coded remarks.Trumponomics: it's time to take them seriously, if not literally.Another Chinese economic stimulus: bazooka or pea-shooter?Your weekly reminder about the global nature of the housing crisis
Europe's manufacturing slowdown threatens recession and promises lower interest rates
34:14|There is a building slowdown in global manufacturing that is starting to look serious. This is a Chinese problem that is fast becoming a major issue for Germany. That's one explanation for the rise of the right in Germany.The new UK government is beginning to look like a bewildered bunch of not very good middle managers
House prices go boom. So does the Federal Reserve - Trump will go nuts
29:56|The US central bank goes large and delivers a big interest rate cut. Thereby admitting it should have cut sooner.The Irish property market moves into double figure price inflation. And mortgage rates are only going to fall further
Apple tax hysteria - it's getting very silly.
38:38|What is the right level of interest rates? While discussion of 'R-star' might seem esoteric, they do say one important thing: Euro interest rates are way too high.The Federal Reserve has achieved its price stability mandate and is now switching to focus on employment.Growth is now front and centre of all European economic policy debate. Even - especially - in the UK. The new chancellor is going down exactly the wrong path if she sticks to her fiscal rules. Don't just listen to us - every economist in the world is now on the same page when it comes to investment and growth. The time has come to junk the old rules and embrace sensible risk taking.The response to the Apple tax case has at times verged on hysteria. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. Where are all the foreign multinationals going to go?
Draghi to Brussels: do whatever it takes or the EU is toast. Irish inflation, American debt and the mystery of still too high Euro interest rates.
37:25|Irish inflation this week confirmed that the economy is showing few, if any, obvious signs of overheating. Prices are still going. up but at their slowest pace in a long while. That said, prices are 20% higher than we saw pre-pandemic. Memo to economists: don't pretend you know what causes inflation.European interest rates are still too high.When does government debt matter? 100% of GDP? 300% of GDP? As always, it all depends! But the US is adding to its debt in a most reckless and unsustainable manner.The Draghi report is worth reading at least twice. It is incredibly hard hitting. Europe's economy is falling far behind the US. His message to Euope's policymakers: do whatever it takes to catch up. Otherwise, the European project risks failure.
A podcast for petrol-heads. Life in the fast lane: the business of motor racing. And a young person's perspective on Ireland.
31:24|In this podcast special Jim talks with Alex Denning, a 25 year old racing superstar.The business of modern racing is all about money, contacts and driving talent - in that order.Alex talks about doing exactly what his parents didn't want him to do. Making it with McLaren!But it costs anything between 5-15 million to break into Formula 1. Sometimes more - your dad has to buy the car company!Want. to lose weight? Forget about Ozempic - drive a McLaren very fast for lots of laps and you will be a lot slimmer.Alex gives us a young person's perspective on life in Ireland. And on things UK, French and Italian (the French are rude and unwelcoming. Italian driving habits are very strange)EVs are losing traction. Why?And much more. Enjoy!
Apple taxes. Windfall taxes. A podcast special
21:44|To the surprise of many observers, Europe's top court has told Apple it must pay Ireland €13.1 billion in back taxes.In a case that dates back to 2016, it's partly a history lesson about dodgy practices - the double Irish and all that. Those days are long gone.But there is also an investment lesson here, one that is not just of historical interest. The outcome of the original investment was €14.8 billion became €13.1 billion, thanks to the original purchase of negative yielding government bonds. If the disputed taxes had been parked in Apple shares, the Irish government would today be in receipt of around €100 billion. Investment decisions are always massively consequential. Where to invest the €13.1 billion now?
'Europe faces an existential crisis'. According to Mario Draghi, at least.....He's right.
28:48|Latest jobs numbers from the US point to a weakening economy. Interest rate cuts are on the way. The only question is, 'how big?'European elites are warning that Europe could cease to exist in its current from unless radical remedial action is taken. Few politicians will lsiten. If they do, they won't act.
It keeps raining cash on the Finance Minister. A big budget is coming.
27:35|Still drowning in cash, the new Finance Minister is warned by IFAC, yet again, not to spend it. Are the fiscal giveaways of past budgets really costing each household €1000 a year? Amidst all the cries of 'they are windfall taxes' it's forgotten that capital investment is - or should be - very different to current spending. We used to argue about borrowing for investment purposes - economists have always pointed that that borrowing for investment is perfectly ok, provided the return on that investment is higher than the cost. Now, some seem to be arguing that spending money that we already have, windfall or otherwise, still shouldn't be spent, even on high return projects. There's crying wolf and then just being daft.GDP data is all over the place and has defeated us. Exchequer returns and other data point to an economy still growing although not one that is overheating. Tax revenues are booming and unemployment is down again.