The Other Hand

Unemployment edges up on both sides of the Atlantic - things are definitely showing early signs of slowing down.Whatever the outlook there are very good reasons to quietly ditch the 2% inflation targets that apply to the FED, BoE and ECB - particularly in the US, too much harm will be caused by a drive to 2%. Quietly adopt 3% inflation targets and get on with interest rate cuts. That 2% number was plucked out of thin air in the first place, decades ago, and has outlasted its usefulness.Rishi Sunak came to office promising much and delivering next to nothing. His political skills are next to non-existent. A strange thing to say about a Prime Minister. But he staked his premiership - and electoral chances - on a target that not enough people care about and a target that he couldn't meet. A more skilled politician would have asked 'what do most voters actually want?'. He asked the bat-shit crazy wing of the Tory Party that question and, surprise surprise, got a bat-shit crazy answer.Emmanuel Macron is right: unless Europe rearms, Putin will wage war on us. He already is - it will just get nastier and closer.

The border never went away you know.

A packed podcast:It may be the ultimate social faux pas, but dare we say the latest Revenue annual report contains a wealth of fascinating data?Back taxes owed by SMEs could be - maybe are - a real problemShort-termism: anyone wondering why some companies and countries don't inest enough in themselves need look no further than META's (Facebook) results this week. The shares tanked because the tech giant announced a huge capital spending program (mostly in AI). Financial markets want one thing only: instant gratification. That translates as "show us the cash". Dividends, share buybacks and increases in revenues are the golden trifecta that leads to higher share prices. But investment means spending cash. That's the big no-no. The paradox, of course, is that the only thing that leads to long-term growth in dividends, share buybacks and revenues is investment. Companies and countries that stint on investment don't grow. You couldn't make it up.If (hopefully a big if) another European war is on the way, is being a member of the EU and remaining neutral mutually inconsistent?And all the latest data!

The Irish government has released its latest assessment of where the economy is heading. It looks like. a forlorn attempt to dampen expectations ahead of another giveaway budget in a few months time. The last before the general election.The golden goose will someday stop laying its eggs. What will future generations think of us, what we did the largesses generously donated by the multinational tax boom? Will we be 'grateful Norwegians', now rich because they saved their windfall taxes (from oil). Or will we resemble the 'morose British' who blew all their windfall oil taxes on what?Is there much more capacity for extra housebuilding than is conventionally thought?Will house prices ever fall to 'affordable' levels, even with extra supply. Or were houses just 'the wrong price' a generation ago?Chris takes the other side of the IMF forecast bets: we are approaching peak short term growth optimism and the IMF is way too pessimistic about the medium term At least Ireland has a fiscal debate grounded in arithmetic. The UK's fiscal conversation is total hokum.And all the latest economic data

Latest opinion polls - and a bit of political crystal ball gazing - points to no one party getting more than 30% of the vote at the upcoming Irish general election.Why is that and what might it mean? Will Ireland 'Go Dutch' (or Belgian...)? Are we in for weeks or even months of prolonged coalition negotiations?The deteriorating geopolitical situation might give voters pause for thought about the sort of politicians they want. As talk of WW3 gets louder, will Ireland want to be led by SF?What is for sure is that SF policies will be subject to forensic scrutiny - unlike last time.Ban Tik Tok? Chinese Communist Party or Elon Musk - who is the better owner of social media companies?

Professor Edgar Morgenroth has recently published a joint paper with professor John Fitzgerald that takes a deep dive into the potential costs of Irish reunification.We talk to Edgar about his work. We look at lessons from german reunification and the asumptions behind his estimates that it could cost the Irish taxpayer a lot of money. And a lot of sweat and tears.Planning will be essential. Bad outcomes after ill thought out referendums have historical precedent. Brexit for instance.