A hot political spring is just getting started. Plus, is Quebec's provincial election a toss-up?

Three federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis. Meanwhile, a new poll out of Quebec shows the provincial election in October could prove to be a toss-up. Stuff is about to get real out there. This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and where things stand as this political spring starts to heat up. Plus, we take a peak at some leaked data about how NDP members ranked their ballot on the weekend. We also chat about a new poll out of Quebec, where the provincial election slated in October is looking tougher and tougher to predict. Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://thenumberspod.ca/ The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can <a href="https://youtu.be/-JCcaJLNZNI" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">watch this episode on YouTube</a>.

Carney's majority, Poilievre's challenge and Lewis's debut

The NDP leadership ends with a first ballot victory for Avi Lewis.

Avi Lewis secured the NDP leadership in Winnipeg today, getting 56% of the vote on the first ballot. In this quick-hit episode of The Numbers, we give our initial reactions to the results and chat about where the NDP under Lewis goes from here. Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://thenumberspod.ca/ The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can <a href="https://youtu.be/DmHt9XodXyk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">watch this episode on YouTube</a>.

Avi Lewis wins

The NDP chooses its new leader on Sunday. Is there much doubt who it will be?

The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday? This week on The Numbers, before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about the candidates for the leadership as well as the future of the NDP. Then, we break down the new federal polls (including on views of Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast) and take a quick look at some new provincial numbers out of Manitoba and Ontario before we close with an NDP-themed Quiz. Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://thenumberspod.ca/ The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can <a href="https://youtu.be/g-iEoBAVxLE" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">watch this episode on YouTube</a>.

Is the NDP leadership Avi Lewis's to lose?

The polls show some of the strongest numbers for the Liberals that we've seen in years while the Conservatives are slumping.

With some polls suggesting the Liberals are nearing 50% support while the Conservatives are slipping toward 30%, one has to wonder: has Mark Carney hit his ceiling and has Pierre Poilievre hit his floor? This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polling numbers and the unprecedented scores being put up by the Liberals. We also discuss provincial polling from across the country as a new poll shows which premiers are up and which premiers are down. Then, Philippe has another Quiz. Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://thenumberspod.ca/ The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can <a href="https://youtu.be/eS4-YBCRQEk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">watch this episode on YouTube</a>.

Have we hit Carney's ceiling and Poilievre's floor?

With another floor-crosser and three byelections now on the calendar, Mark Carney's Liberals could be weeks away from a majority government.

Mark Carney’s Liberals have a majority in sight after adding Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to their ranks. The former New Democrats has pushed the Liberals to 170 seats in the House of Commons, meaning they are only two short of a majority with three vacancies set to be filled in a trio of byelections on April 13. This week on The Numbers, we discuss Idlout’s floor-crossing, the byelection calendar and what it all means for the Liberals and the opposition parties. Is the NDP in serious trouble? What does a majority mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership? We also chat about the latest fundraising figures from the NDP leadership contest and break down all of the new federal polls published over the last week. Then, it’s the triomphant return of The Quiz! Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can <a href="https://youtu.be/_mjrcc2L_iI" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">watch this episode on YouTube</a>.

Floor-crossing + Byelections = Carney majority?

Mark Carney leans on his foreign policy advantage while Pierre Poilievre hopes to close the gap.

Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited Germany and the United Kingdom. But while the trips were foreign, the politics are always domestic. This week on The Numbers, we take a look at polling numbers that shed some light on what Canadians think about a few hot button foreign policy issues and what bearing that could have on Liberal and Conservative support. We also chat about some of the latest federal polling numbers, including a new Léger poll that awards the Liberals a 14-point lead. Plus, we discuss some new provincial polls in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec, where support for independence has hit a new low. Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can find this <a href="https://youtu.be/GRkKDNbsy3k" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">episode on YouTube</a>.

Carney, Poilievre go abroad in search of wins

Polls have shown a big shift nationally — and in the Conservative heartland.

As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls suggest the margin between the two parties has closed significantly. What is behind this shift in the polls, is it the real deal and what could it mean for the next election? We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the results of the Chicoutimi byelection as well as some new provincial polling out of Quebec and Ontario, where Doug Ford has dismissed numbers that show he might be losing a step on his rivals. Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. This episode is <a href="https://youtu.be/-PpAsu6B454" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">available on YouTube</a>.

Carney's Liberals are up big in Alberta. Is it for real?

Byelections and another Conservative floor-crosser have the Liberals on the cusp of a majority.

With the decision of Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux to cross from the Conservatives over to the Liberals — rather than resign as he said he would back in November — Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party is again under the microscope. And with one additional MP joining the government benches and a series of byelections on the horizon, Mark Carney and the Liberals are within sight of the majority government they were denied in the 2025 federal election. This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jeneroux’s floor-crossing, the over-turning of the Terrebonne election result and the potential resignation of NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, who is reportedly eyeing greener (or more orange?) pastures at the provincial level. We also have some new polls to discuss out of British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Quebec. Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can <a href="https://youtu.be/xNlN7inKVFM" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">watch this episode on YouTube</a>.

Poilievre on the ropes as Carney's majority in sight

Polls suggest the Liberals have widened their lead over the Conservatives.

With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026? This week on The Numbers, we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his honeymoon or an entirely new thing. We also chat about the round of byelections that we can expect in the next few months and what they mean for both federal and Ontario politics. Plus, a new poll on Alberta independence shows some stark divides in the province that complicate things for Danielle Smith (and Poilievre). Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join our Patreon</a> and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Join here!</a> https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. You can <a href="https://youtu.be/q9CDBi0THoM" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">watch this episode on YouTube</a>.

Liberals in majority territory, but there's no election — yet?

Politics with Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier

Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada. <a href="https://thenumberspod.ca/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Become a Patron</a> for full access to exclusive content!

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