Share
The National Security Podcast
Indo-Pacific Futures – The grey zone, hybrid war, and minilateralism
•
In this episode of the National Security Podcast, we bring you the first of a special three-part series looking at key trends influencing the future strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific. This episode unpacks two competing trends that are shaping the regional order: the rise of grey zone and hybrid threats, and the emergence of ‘minilateralism’.
Grey zone and hybrid threats have been rising in prominence as tools used by authoritarian states as they attempt to reshape the regional order. But what are they, who are they being used against, and how they are likely to evolve in coming years? And with minilateralism emerging as a preferred format for states to meet the challenges of great power competition, how might diplomacy evolve to match the shifting security landscape of the coming decade? In this episode of the National Security Podcast, we ask how these trends intersect and whether minilateralism is an effective tool to deal with grey zone and hybrid threats.
Professor Sascha Bachmann is a Professor in Law at Canberra Law School and co-convener of the National Security Hub at the University of Canberra. He is also a Research Fellow at the Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa at Stellenbosch University.
Elisabeth Braw is a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where she focuses on defense against emerging national security challenges, such as hybrid and grey zone threats.
Professor Akiko Fukushima is a Senior Fellow at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research. She has previously held roles as Director of Policy Studies at the National Institute for Research Advancement and as Senior Fellow at the Japan Foundation.
Dr Frank Hoffman is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University's Center for Strategic Research.
Professor Takashi Shiraishi is Chancellor of the Prefectural University of Kumamoto and Professor Emeritus at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
Abhijit Singh is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, where he heads the Maritime Policy Initiative.
Dr Sarah Teo is a Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Regional Security Architecture Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University.
Aarshi Tirkey is a Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, working in its Strategic Studies Programme. Her research focuses on international law, especially its relevance and application to Indian foreign policy.
Professor Jingdong Yuan is an Associate Professor at the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney. He specialises in Asia-Pacific security, Chinese defence and foreign policy, and global and regional arms control and non-proliferation issues.
Chris Farnham is the Senior Outreach and Policy Officer at the ANU National Security College.
This mini-series forms part of the Indo-Pacific Futures Project underway at ANU National Security College. This project, which explores the future strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific region, offers a range of analysis and ideas, all of which is available on the Futures Hub website. In the rest of this series, experts from across the national security community will interrogate the future of the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape, evaluate the influence of critical technology on the region, and examine the rise of geoeconomics as a feature of great power competition.
The Indo-Pacific Futures Project receives support from the Japanese Embassy in Australia. ANU National Security College is independent in its...
More episodes
View all episodes
One and free: interests, values and national identity
01:01:29Why is it important to consider Australia's national identity when discussing matters related to national security?What does a shared sense of national identity look like for Australia today? What are some of the frailties and risks that Australia faces when it comes to maintaining social cohesion? In this episode, Zoe McKenzie, Allegra Spender, Wesa Chau, Asmi Wood and Afeeya Akhand join Ian Kemish to discuss the importance of Australian values, national identity, and social cohesion in guiding Australia’s strategic priorities.Zoe McKenzie MP is the Federal Member for Flinders Allegra Spender MP is the Federal Member for Wentworth Wesa Chau is the Director of Public Policy at the Multicultural Leadership Initiative Professor Asmi Wood is a Professor at the ANU College of Law and Sub-Dean (Indigenous) Afeeya Akhand is a Youth Council Member at the ANU National Security College (NSC). Ian Kemish AM is a Distinguished Advisor at NSC. Show notes: Keynote address by the Hon Tim Watts MP Keynote address by the Hon Andrew Hastie MP PJCIS - Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security A Rightful Place by Noel Pearson | Symbolic indigenous recognition for all of us Note: This episode was recorded during the NSC’s ‘Securing our Future’ conference on 10 April 2024. We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.An intergenerational approach to national security policymaking
52:10Why is it important to include young voices in policymaking? Would commitments to long-term policymaking at a multilateral level push Australia and other countries to apply these principles domestically? Can state-based wellbeing frameworks guide national decision-making in Australia? In this episode, Sophie Howe and Caitlin Figueiredo join Dayle Stanley to for a future-focused discussion on the importance of long-term policy making. Sophie Howe was the first Future Generations Commissioner for Wales and is a member of the ANU National Security College (NSC) Futures Council. Caitlin Figueiredo is the 2024 ACT Young Australian of the Year and the former co-chair of the Australian Youth Affairs Coalition. Dayle Stanley is the Chief Futures Officer at the NSC Futures Hub. Show notes: Sophie Howe Ted Talk How did there come to be a Future Generations Commissioner in Wales? UN Summit for the Future National Emergency Management Agency We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.Insights into intelligence: statecraft, security, and truth
52:35What is the role of intelligence with respect to policy-making and national security? What is the concept of ‘truth to power’ and is it the right approach for intelligence assessment? Should intelligence agencies to be more public and open about their threat assessments? What is the role of open-source intelligence (OSINT) in the intelligence community (IC)? And would the Australian IC stand to benefit from a standalone OSINT agency? In this episode, Beth Sanner joins Peter Ford and Ben Scott to discuss how intelligence and statecraft interact and look at some key events to analyse the role of intelligence. Beth Sanner is a Senior Fellow at Harvard University Belfer Center and the former US Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration. Peter Ford is a Senior Advisor at the ANU National Security College (NSC). Ben Scott is a Senior Advisor at NSC. Show notes: Opinion piece by Beth Sanner on 'Truth to Power': A Former Presidential Briefer Rethinks Truth to Power (thecipherbrief.com) United States 2024 Annual Threat Assessment: ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf (dni.gov) ASIO Director-General's Annual Threat Assessment 2024: Director-General's Annual Threat Assessment 2024 | ASIO Adapting Australian intelligence to the information age by Ben Scott: find out more We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.Trouble in paradise? What’s next for the Australia-Solomon Islands relationship?
50:01Why is the 2024 election so important for the Solomon Islands and what is the future of democracy in the country?What is the state of the Australia-Solomon Islands relationship in a post-RAMSI era?Can Australia be more ambitious in its provision of development assistance to the Solomon Islands? In this episode, Edward Cavanough joins Rory Medcalf to discuss the upcoming Solomon Islands election, the future of Australia’s relationship with the Solomon Islands and Edward’s new book Divided Isles: Solomon Islands and the China Switch. Edward Cavanough is the Chief Executive Officer at The McKell Institute, an Australian think-tank. He is also an experienced analyst and journalist.Professor Rory Medcalf AM is Head of ANU National Security College (NSC). His professional experience spans more than three decades across diplomacy, intelligence analysis, think tanks, journalism and academia. Show notes:· Securing our Future – national security conference, 9–10 April, 2024: find out more [DA1] · Divided Isles: Solomon Islands and the China Switch: find out more· Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI): find out more We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts. Are we still selling tickets? [DA1]In conversation with the EU Special Envoy for the Indo-Pacific, Richard Tibbels
35:34Why is the EU stepping up its engagement in the Indo-Pacific? In what ways does the EU collaborate with sub-regions within the Indo-Pacific? How can it diversify its relationship with Australia? And how does the EU reconcile with perceptions of it as a neo-colonial character in the Indo-Pacific? In this episode, Richard Tibbels joins Rory Medcalf to discuss the Europe Union’s engagement, challenges, and opportunities in the Indo-Pacific, and what it means for Australia. Richard Tibbels is the EU Special Envoy for the Indo-Pacific. Professor Rory Medcalf AM is Head of ANU National Security College (NSC). His professional experience spans more than three decades across diplomacy, intelligence analysis, think tanks, journalism and academia. Show notes: Securing our Future – national security conference, 9–10 April, 2024: secure your ticketsEU Indo-Pacific Forum 2024: address from Richard Tibbels, EU Special Envoy to the Indo-PacificEU Special Envoy to the Indo-Pacific Richard Tibbels in conversation with Professor Rory MedcalfEuropean Security Strategy We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.ASEAN-Australia ambitions: celebrating 50 years of dialogue
48:55In a world of geopolitical uncertainty, what is the significance of the recent ASEAN-Australia Special Summit? What realistically can be achieved between Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)? And what are the diplomatic and security challenges facing ASEAN nations? In this episode, Pichamon Yeophanton, Huong Le Thu and Don McLain Gill join Rory Medcalf on the sidelines of the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit to assess the state of ASEAN-Australia relations, and explore the opportunities and challenges facing deeper engagement. Dr Pichamon Yeophantong is Head of Research and Associate Professor at the Centre for Future Defence and National Security, Deakin University at the Australian War College. Dr Huong Le Thu is the Asia Deputy Director at the International Crisis Group. Don McLain Gill is a Lecturer and a geopolitical analyst at the Department of International Studies, De La Salle University. Professor Rory Medcalf AM is Head of the ANU National Security College (NSC). His professional experience spans more than three decades across diplomacy, intelligence analysis, think tanks, journalism and academia. Show notes: Securing our Future – national security conference, 9–10 April, 2024: secure your tickets ASEAN-Australia Special Summit 2024: find out more Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: find out more We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.Fixing systems, not women: space and the Women, Peace and Security agenda
42:42How does the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda apply to space policy? Why is better integration of the WPS agenda into the space sector crucial for Australia? And how does Australia compare to its international peers in this area? In this episode, Cassandra Steer and Elise Stephenson join Danielle Ireland-Piper to discuss the importance of incorporating the Women, Peace, and Security agenda into the Australian space sector. Dr Cassandra Steer is Deputy Director (Mission Specialists) at the Australian National University Institute for Space (InSpace).Dr Elise Stephenson GAICD is a Gender, Space and National Security Fellow at the ANU National Security College (NSC) and the Deputy Director at the ANU Global Institute for Women's Leadership.Dr Danielle Ireland-Piper is an Associate Professor and Academic Director at NSC. Show notes: Securing our Future – national security conference, 9–10 April, 2024: secure your tickets Australia’s National Action Plan for implementing the WPS agenda: find out more Joint Project 9102 Phase 1: find out more We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.Promise and peril: what to expect from the year of elections
54:39How could global politics shift, with more than half the world's population voting in elections this year? How should Australia – and other liberal democracies – navigate a path forward amid growing geopolitical tension and conflict? And what opportunities exist for Australia to deepen ties with its longstanding partners, despite increasing uncertainty and complexity? In this episode, Sophia Gaston and Gideon Rachman join Rory Medcalf to discuss upcoming elections around the world, escalating global conflicts, and what may be in store for the Australia-UK relationship, following the UK’s upcoming general election.Sophia Gaston is an Expert Associate at the ANU National Security College (NSC). She is also the Head of Foreign Policy and UK Resilience at the leading Westminster think tank, Policy Exchange. Gideon Rachman is the Chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times. Professor Rory Medcalf AM is Head of NSC. His professional experience spans more than three decades across diplomacy, intelligence analysis, think tanks, journalism, and academia. Show notes: Securing our Future – national security conference, 9–10 April, 2024: secure your tickets AUKUS Pillar II: find out more We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.‘Joined at the hip’: what next for the Australia-PNG relationship?
49:55This episode is dedicated to the memory of Faith Medcalf (1935-2023), who devoted much of her life to school education and teacher training in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. Have Australians lost sight of the importance of the Australia-PNG relationship? What impact has Prime Minister Marape’s address to the Australian Parliament, and the new security agreement had on public perceptions? And how can a shared history help to further develop this complex and critical relationship? In this episode, Ian Kemish, Oliver Nobetau and Nayahamui Rooney join Rory Medcalf to delve into the dynamics of Australia-Papua New Guinea bilateral relations, and explore how the two nations can strengthen their bond. Dr Nayahamui Rooney is a Lecturer with the School of Culture, History & Language in the College of Asia & the Pacific at the Australian National University (ANU). Ian Kemish AM is an Expert Associate at the ANU National Security College (NSC), and the former Australian High Commissioner to Papua New Guinea. Oliver Nobetau is an FDC Pacific Fellow at the Lowy Institute, on secondment from the Government of Papua New Guinea. Professor Rory Medcalf AM is Head of NSC. His professional experience spans more than three decades across diplomacy, intelligence analysis, think tanks, journalism and academia. Show notes: Securing our Future – national security conference, 9–10 April, 2024: secure your tickets Prime Minister Marape’s address to parliament: PNG Prime Minister James Marape makes historic first address to Australian parliament | Sky News Australia Moving beyond the Bougainville Peace Agreement by Ian Kemish AM The state of play in PNG: A momentous start to 2024 by Oliver Nobetau 'Fabricated Security Space': The Manus Regional Processing Centre and gendered discourse between Australia and Papua New Guinea by Dr Nayahamui Rooney We’d love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.