The Lowdown from Nick Cohen

UK Economic Stagnation AnalysisNick Cohen @NickCohen4 talks to Simon Nixon @Simon_Nixon discussed the UK's economic stagnation since 2008, highlighting the impact of financial sector reliance, austerity policies, and Brexit. They analysed Keir Starmer's recent EU trade deal, noting modest improvements but emphasising its limited impact on addressing broader economic challenges. Simon suggested that deeper EU integration could yield greater economic benefits, while Andrew questioned whether rejoining the EU would be politically feasible.Businesses Navigate Political Party ChallengesNick Cohen & Simon Nixon discuss the challenges businesses face in aligning with political parties, particularly the Conservative Party, due to its current opposition to policies beneficial for business, such as the Brexit deal and trade agreements with India. They noted that businesses may seek alternatives to advance their agendas, given the presence of multiple parties in the political landscape. Simon highlighted the economic impact of the recent National Insurance rise, which was implemented to fund social care but has been met with skepticism and uncertainty about its long-term effects on employment and inflation.Economic Policy Challenges and SolutionsSimon and Nick discussed the challenges of economic policy, particularly the reliance on low tax rates and central banks to stimulate growth. They agreed that raising taxes is necessary to reduce debt and ease pressure on central banks, as seen in both the UK and US.Economic Challenges in UK and USThe discussion focused on the economic challenges facing both the UK and the US, with Simon Nixon highlighting how Liz Truss's fiscal policies have left limited room for manoeuver before requiring tax increases or spending cuts. Nixon compared the US situation under Donald Trump, noting that while Trump's tax cuts were temporary, his administration is now pushing through a budget that would increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, primarily to prevent tax rates from rising.Global Economic Challenges and ReformsSimon discussed the global economic challenges facing various countries, including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, emphasising that no country has a perfect solution. He highlighted the impact of technology, particularly AI, on employment and the need for bold administrative reforms to improve state management. Simon also touched on the Labour Party's sudden rise to power and the lack of comprehensive plans upon taking office, noting the difficulty of implementing significant reforms while in government.Read all about!Simon Nixon's Substack column Wealth of Nations is one of the best and most insightful reads on economics and finance. His latest column - Europe's Crippling Risk Aversion - is here.Nick Cohen's regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read.

Nick Cohen talks to Russia expert Ian GarnerNick Cohen and Dr Ian Garner discussed the impact of Vladimir Putin on global affairs and the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Ian highlighting the strict government control, lack of free speech, and severe punishments for dissent in Russia. They also discussed the economic impact of the war, the rise of fascism in Russia, and the Russian government's propaganda tactics. The conversation ended with a discussion on the political landscape in Russia, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the cultural and historical factors that contribute to Russia's inclination towards war.Putin's Impact on Global AffairsNick Cohen introduces the podcast "The Lowdown" and welcomes guest Ian Garner, an academic authority on Russia. They discuss the impact of Vladimir Putin on global affairs and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ian explains that despite Russia suffering an estimated 900,000 casualties in the war, the country hasn't fallen apart due to strict government control, lack of free speech, and severe punishments for dissent.Political Prisoners in Putin's RussiaIan discussed the increasing number of political prisoners in Putin's Russia, surpassing the Soviet Union's post-Stalin era. He highlighted the return of old techniques like psychiatric institutions and show trials, and the lack of a fair legal system in Russia. Ian also touched on the militarization of Russian culture, both historically and under the Putin regime, and the government's strategy of bribing people to join the military.Rise of Fascism in RussiaIan and Nick discussed the rise of fascism in Russia, tracing its roots to the late Soviet era when dissident groups emerged, including neo-Nazi and nationalist movements. They noted the disappointment of many Russians with the experience of democracy in the 1990s, which led to the rise of a nationalist, irredentist, and revanchist bloc.Russian Propaganda Tactics and ControlIan discussed the Russian government's propaganda tactics, including creating multiple narratives to shape public opinion and reality. He noted that these tactics are effective, despite being crude, and that they allow the government to maintain control and manipulate public perception. Ian also compared the current situation to the aftermath of the Soviet-Afghan war, where similar tactics were used to control public opinion.Read all about it!Dr Ian Garner @irgarner is professor of Russia, war, propaganda @ Pilecki Institute & author of Z Generation: Russia's Fascist Youth. His next book -co-authored - Russia and Modern Fascism is out August 5th.Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

The Tories face extinction as a political forceIn the meeting, Nick Cohen and Nick Tyrone, author, activist and political commentator, discussed the potential demise of the Conservative party in the UK. They highlighted the party's ideological confusion and complacency as major factors contributing to their decline. Nick suggested that the Conservative party might be losing its way intellectually and ideologically, and that they are complacent about their situation. They also discussed the rise of the radical right in the form of Nigel Farage's Reform party and the potential impact on the Conservative party. The conversation ended with a discussion on the need for the Conservative party to offer an alternative to the Reform party and the importance of having a strong leader to lead the party forward.Tories' Leadership and Strategy CritiqueThe two Nicks discuss Kemi Badenoch's leadership and strategy for the Tories. Nick Tyrone criticised Kemi's performance, stating she was not good at politics and had a fatal flaw in her strategy. He argued that her focus on culture issues was the wrong approach, as the Tories needed to rebuild their image as competent and pro-business. Nick Tyreone also suggested that Kemi's strategy was the opposite of what the Tories needed to succeed.Conservative Party's Potential Dissolution DiscussedBoth Nicks discuss the potential for the Conservative party to dissolve into the Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, due to their shared right-wing ideologies. They argued that the Conservative party's failure to articulate a unique reason for its existence in the current political climate could lead to its demise.Farage's Departure and Reform Party's FutureThey then discuss the potential impact of Nigel Farage's departure on the Reform Party's momentum. They agreed that Farage's personality cult is crucial to the party's success, and his absence could lead to its collapse.The Tories' grisly dilemmaNick Tyrone says the Tory Party face a grisly dilemma if it decides it has blown its ill-deserved credentials for being the party of business and economic competence thanks to Brexit and Liz Truss. He explains, "If that's the case, just make, just do whatever you need to do with Farage. Make Farage the leader of the conservative party. Melt the conservative party into Reform all the conservative party and just become. Just make Reform the one like right wing vehicle in the country, because that's gonna be more electorally efficient if there's no reason to exist. And what's happening is they are being crushed on one end by the Lib Dems and crushed on the other end by Reform, and they don't appeal to either group. "Read all about it!Nick Tyrone is an author, activist, policy advisor and commentator and keen observer of the Tory party whose Substack column as Neoliberal Centrist Dad - nick.tyrone.substack.com - is a must read for those of us desperate for the return of sanity to our national political discourse.Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

UK's Electoral System Challenges Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain, discusses the challenges of the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system and its impact on political strategies. She points out that the system is no longer working effectively for the two main parties, with recent elections showing candidates winning with as little as 22-25% of the vote.This situation has led to discussions about whether major parties should try to appeal to their core supporters or attempt to win over voters from other parties. Naomi emphasises the need for a new approach to address the limitations of the current electoral system.Brexit's Impact on UK Economy and PoliticsNaomi and Nick discussed the impact of Brexit on the UK economy and the political landscape. Naomi highlighted the fragmentation of voter preferences, with people switching from Labour to Reform UK and the Greens. She noted that Labour's inability to deliver progressive economic policies was hurting their appeal. Nick criticised Nigel Farage for the economic consequences of Brexit, but Naomi points out that the media rarely questions Reform UK's policies beyond Brexit. They agreed that politicians need to lead the conversation and not just react to past elections.UK Politics: Fragmentation and ChallengesThe discussion focuses on the current state of UK politics, particularly the Conservative Party's struggles and the rise of Reform UK. Naomi says that the political landscape is fragmented, with different parties leading in various regions. She notes that Labour needs to provide a compelling vision to motivate progressive voters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a "regressive alliance" between Conservatives and Reform UK, and the need for Labour to deliver meaningful change if they win the next election.Labour's Strategy and Progressive Party RelationsThe discussion focuses on the Labour Party's current strategy and its relationship with other progressive parties. Naomi suggests that Labour is losing more votes to the Liberal Democrats, SNP, and Green Party than to Reform UK. She also mentions internal concerns within the Labour Party about the proposed Welfare Bill, which could increase poverty and break manifesto promises. The conversation then shifts to the Green Party's perspective, with Naomi stating that Green Party leaders feel Labour is arrogant and unwilling to engage in discussions about combating the far right. The Greens' decision to run more candidates in the last election is attributed to a lack of reciprocation from Labour for their previous cooperation. Naomi expressed optimism about Britain's future, emphasising the need to address issues such as stagnant wages and declining public services. Read all about it!Naomi Smith is one of the country's most incisive commentators on politics & the UK-Europe relationship. She can also be found on Bluesky . Naomi is also a seasoned podcaster, co-hosting the Quiet Riot Pod, the politics podcast with more passion, less shouting & lots of laughter. Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

Tech billionaires' paradoxical political support of TrumpNick Cohen and Quinn Slobodian,@zeithistoriker, the Canadian author and academic, discuss the paradoxical behaviour of American libertarians, particularly tech billionaires, who have been supporting Donald Trump despite his policies contradicting their beliefs in free trade, limited state interference, and unrestricted business operations. Quinn, a professor of international history at Boston University, introduced his book "Hayek's Bastards: The Neoliberal Roots of the Populist Right," which explores the roots of the modern radical right and helps understand why these individuals seem to make little sense.Neoliberalism's Shift From Globalism to AuthoritarianismQuinn discusses the origins of neoliberal thought and libertarianism in the aftermath of the Habsburg Empire's collapse. He highlighted the Universalist project of Friedrich Hayek, Wilhelm Rupka, and Ludwig von Mises to rebuild the world economy. Quinn also explains how the consensus of globalism started to unravel in the 1990s, leading to a shift in libertarian Universalism towards human differences and acceptance of authoritarian partnerships. He uses the figure of Peter Thiel to illustrate this transformation.Silicon Valley's Libertarian escapism and governmentQuinn discusses the convergence of Silicon Valley escapism and libertarianism, highlighting the story of California and its influence on libertarianism. He also touched on the role of the government in supporting the tech industry, particularly in the development of the Internet. Nick agrees with Quinn's points and added that the hippie movement also sought to reduce the power of the state over the individual.Ultra-rich influence on American societyQuinn and Nick discuss the influence of the ultra-rich on American society. Quinn argued that the ultra-rich have abandoned the need to buy legitimacy, which is a warning sign. Nick suggests that the ultra-rich are not as concerned with America as they should be, and that they are more sanguine about Trump's actions. Quinn also mentioned that the ultra-rich are constantly seeking security and are leaning into the dynamics of capitalist competition. Nick concludes that the ultra-rich are willing to use any means to defeat their perceived enemies, including burning down American cultural institutions.Read all about it!Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.Quinn Slobodian is a Canadian author & historian specialising in modern Germany and international history. He is currently Professor of International History at Boston University. His latest book is Hayek's bastards: The Neoliberal roots of the Populist Right.

Whither or wither NATO?Nick Cohen and Phillips P.O'Brien, the academic, author & military historian, discuss the current state of NATO and the Western alliance, with a focus on the US security guarantee to Europe and the impact of the American right's ideology on international relations. They also explored the potential trust between Trump and Putin, the implications of reduced American aid to Ukraine, and the implications of the US pivoting from Europe to face China's aggression. They also discuss the dilemma faced by an isolated Brexit Britain, hopelessly trying to face towards a Trumpist US and the European Union at the same time,Trump is selling out its allies - bigly!Phillips says Europe cannot accept the evidence of its own eyes and ears: that Trump is completely selling out its allies: "I despair. As you probably know from reading my stuff at times, I've been trying to scream about this for over a year. Europe had to get ready and Britain had to get ready for this."An isolated UK trying to ride 2 horses at once faces irrelevancePhillips urged the UK to stop tying to ride 2 horses at once and plots its future with Europe. He says, "The old system is gone. It's not coming back. And I would start with almost a blank sheet of paper and re-assume what Britain needs for its own security and that will be European focused... if Britain doesn't, it'll get left behind by the European states that do. I mean, Britain won't actually instantly collapse, but it will just become more irrelevant .. it always like to think it could have a, a foot in both camps, but it might end up with a foot in neither." Trump doesn't give a **** about Europe or the UKPhillips says the The Trump White House isn't interested in some kind of special relationship with Brexit Britain where the UK plays an important role, adding, "This really seems to be all, maybe Trump will change his mind or maybe, you know, he'll have too many Big Mac and the Republican party will reverse revert to what it was. But it's astonishing 'cause it is a wilful inability to look after your own interests."And Trumpist Tories have a big image problem says Phillips: "you can't be pro-Trump, unless you're pro Putin as well ... which is maybe a position that many in the conservative party are trying to circle."Trump wants populists to take over EuropePhillips says the MAGA White House has a sinister objective: it wants populists to take over Europe. He adds, This is their goal to have a populist takeover in Europe. So they would like Europe to be sort of different populist states not working in action, but being basically a bunch of, populist cutthroats, corrupt cutthroats making deals with Trump in the United States... Their plan is to break European Union unity."Read all about it!Read Phillips' own regular Substack column - Phillips's Newsletter. Phillips is also professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews.Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read.

1st part of 2-part interview with Professor A.C. GraylingNick Cohen talks about cancel culture with leading philosopher & author Professor A.C.Grayling @acgrayling This is the first part of a 2-part interview with Professor Grayling.Radicalised Right labels all opponents as "Woke"Emboldened by Trump, Brexit & Trump, a Radical Right on-the-rampage seeks to justify its own prejudices and failures by labelling its opponents as "woke". A.C. Grayling tells Nick, "the term political correctness was a pejorative term as woke has become now in the vocabulary of the right..."Pogroms, oppression, discrimination - cancelling has a long and sorry historyA.C. Grayling says there's nothing new about discriminatory cancelling, adding cancellation is really one of the major forces of recent history, saying "one group trying to cancel another...By means of wars or pogroms or, you know, exclusions or, or oppressive laws and so on...it is just the story of history."We look for example, at the phenomenon of caste in India, and we see that as a massive systematic and systemic is history long cancellation of whole groups of people."The online Cancel Culture Club is threatening free speechSocial media has made it easier for the authoritarians of both left and right to cancel & penalise people for expressing their views. He adds, "apart from all the other reasons why allowing free expression is so important. Without it, you can't have a process at law. You can't recuse and defend, you can't have politics. You can't propose policies or, or analyse them and challenge them."You can't have an education system if you can't freely pass on information and analyse it and discuss it."Read all about it!Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.A.C. Grayling's book Discriminations: Making peace in the culture wars is now out as paperback.

Nick Cohen talks with Guardian political columnist and author Rafael Behr, @rafelbehr, a Lowdown regular, about Sir Keir Starmer, and asks Raf can the prime minister face down an erratic and increasingly unhinged US president?Labour's Comms issues and a hazardous future aheadRafael says Sir Keir Starmer needs to communicate properly with the British public about how it negotiates the dangerous future ahead, "They seem completely unable just to narrate what they're doing and why they're doing it in a way that would lead people to accept. and get on board with and be patient with ... And that is true of the fiscal situation, and it's true of the geo-strategic situation."Is Starmer the Right Stuff to handle Trump & the Radical Right?Raf says many Brits understand the predicament that Starmer finds himself in with a hostile Trump, adding "They understand he's the prime minister. He can't just go and, and sort of piss all over the American president on live television. But no one seriously intuits that they are kindred spirits or alike..."Starmer best PM we've gotRaf thinks Starmer is the best prime minister we've got adding "Constitutionally the alternative is Kemi Badenoch and the per, and if it's not her, it would've been Robert Jenrick with Farage in the wngs. And you look at most countries in the world, and he wouldn't swap him out for anyone who's actually there available. So from that point of view, he is the right leader for the times."Bye bye Badenoch!Raf & Nick discuss the state of UK politics, include the current dire Tory leadership. Raf says he's "pretty confident" than Kemi Badenoch will. not be leading the Tories into the next general election.Read all about itRafael's recent book Politics: A Survivor's Guide: How to stay engaged without getting enraged is published by W.F.Howes Ltd and available at Amazon and in all good bookshops.Support the show You can also read his wonderful columns in the Guardian. His X handle is @rafaelbehrNick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.