The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

SA corporate credit holds up even as GDP growth stalls and inflation risk builds. Stephen Naidoo explains why strong technicals, not improving fundamentals, are driving the market, and why that gap demands a more conservative, quality-first approach rather than complacency.

Kevin Warsh has chaired his first Fed meeting and testified to Congress, but is he simply doing Trump's bidding? Philip Saunders doesn't think so. He makes sense of Warsh's push to challenge Fed groupthink, why productivity and the AI boom could lift US growth well above conventional estimates, and what it means for inflation, interest rates and the dollar.

John Biccard argues that South African equities have become disconnected from the country's own improving bond market. He points to retail names trading at deep discounts to intrinsic value, a first move into global technology after a brutal software sell-off, and a patient multi-year bet on a spirits recovery. In short: buy what's hated, hold through the discomfort, and let the turning point do the work.

After a blistering 18 months for emerging market equities at an index level, the concentration risk has now become a concern for many. Portfolio Manager Varun Laijawalla argues that beneath the headlines is a story of a wider opportunity set from which an active portfolio could benefit. 

After widespread expectations in 2025 of a structural dollar bear market, conditions appear to have shifted in 2026. The greenback's status as the world's reserve currency has strengthened over the past year, with the Dollar Index recording a modest, though not significant, gain. But is it simply a case of safe-haven buying at the outset of the conflict with Iran, combined with the prospect of higher inflation supporting tighter US monetary policy? Portfolio Manager Jason Borbora-Sheen examines the range of factors currently influencing the US dollar, including the stance and potential actions of a US Federal Reserve under the stewardship of a new Chair.

Oil prices have pulled back sharply from their peak, but Vivienne Taberer warns that the relief may come too late to spare South African consumers further pain. With the SARB watching closely for signs that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, more rate hikes may well be on the table before any cuts return.

The interim Iran peace plan has sent oil sharply lower, but the more interesting questions lie elsewhere. From gold's structural demand story to copper's confounding surplus, coal supply disruptions, and the fertilizer shock still working through the system, George Cheveley walks through why he believes the market is moving too fast to declare the crisis resolved.

AI is reshaping the US economy in ways that confound historical precedent. Philip Saunders makes sense of a market landscape where growth is real but uneven, inflation risks are manageable but not absent, and the old playbook may no longer be enough.

The SpaceX IPO is just the opening act. With Anthropic and OpenAI close behind, Anton du Plooy considers what a wave of trillion-dollar listings means for markets, and for the investors who have to decide what to do about them.