The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

Jason Borbora Sheen unpacks the first coordinated US-Japan currency intervention since 1998 and why a stronger yen won't hold unless Japan's real rates move. He argues the bigger signal is a global rate cycle that may be settling higher than markets expect, and explains how that's shaping a cautious stance in fixed income.

The US Federal Reserve held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, but three dissents and a chair who won't give forward guidance left bond markets more unsettled than the decision itself. John Stopford explains why the confusion matters more than the vote, and what it means for positioning across bonds and equities.

The SARB's split decision to leave the repo rate at 7% caught almost every economist off guard, but Ruen Naidu argues the central bank's own scenario analysis tells a more nuanced story. He unpacks why a lower-for-now stance doesn't mean a dovish central bank, and sets out what the Fed's own hawkish pivot under its new chair means for global bond markets.

SA corporate credit holds up even as GDP growth stalls and inflation risk builds. Stephen Naidoo explains why strong technicals, not improving fundamentals, are driving the market, and why that gap demands a more conservative, quality-first approach rather than complacency.

Kevin Warsh has chaired his first Fed meeting and testified to Congress, but is he simply doing Trump's bidding? Philip Saunders doesn't think so. He makes sense of Warsh's push to challenge Fed groupthink, why productivity and the AI boom could lift US growth well above conventional estimates, and what it means for inflation, interest rates and the dollar.

John Biccard argues that South African equities have become disconnected from the country's own improving bond market. He points to retail names trading at deep discounts to intrinsic value, a first move into global technology after a brutal software sell-off, and a patient multi-year bet on a spirits recovery. In short: buy what's hated, hold through the discomfort, and let the turning point do the work.

After a blistering 18 months for emerging market equities at an index level, the concentration risk has now become a concern for many. Portfolio Manager Varun Laijawalla argues that beneath the headlines is a story of a wider opportunity set from which an active portfolio could benefit. 

After widespread expectations in 2025 of a structural dollar bear market, conditions appear to have shifted in 2026. The greenback's status as the world's reserve currency has strengthened over the past year, with the Dollar Index recording a modest, though not significant, gain. But is it simply a case of safe-haven buying at the outset of the conflict with Iran, combined with the prospect of higher inflation supporting tighter US monetary policy? Portfolio Manager Jason Borbora-Sheen examines the range of factors currently influencing the US dollar, including the stance and potential actions of a US Federal Reserve under the stewardship of a new Chair.

Oil prices have pulled back sharply from their peak, but Vivienne Taberer warns that the relief may come too late to spare South African consumers further pain. With the SARB watching closely for signs that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, more rate hikes may well be on the table before any cuts return.