The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

This year’s State of the Nation Address struck a notably confident tone: less promise, more progress. But is this truly a turning point? Alastair Herbertson explores why infrastructure is at the heart of South Africa’s growth ambitions, where private capital fits in, and why long-term investors may find this moment compelling.

The dollar’s weakness is no longer a contrarian call; it’s becoming the base case. But what’s driving its persistence, and what would finally confirm a full-blown dollar bear cycle? Sahil Mahtani revisits the forces behind the “sell America” trade, the limits of Fed leadership changes, and the signals investors are watching for the next leg lower.

After a breathtaking surge that carried gold well beyond $5 000 an ounce, followed by a brutal pullback, investors are questioning whether the rally has finally run its course. George Cheveley unpacks what drove the frenzy, why volatility is here to stay, and why gold equities may still offer compelling value despite the metal’s wild ride.

One of Jerome Powell’s last acts as Fed chair was to do nothing. Or so it may seem. In the face of sluggish employment but lively growth, US rates were left unchanged. But will benign inflation continue and ultimately sway future decisions to ease? Philip Saunders analyses the situation.

A stronger rand. Lower inflation. Rate cuts on the horizon. Malcolm Charles explains why South African bonds remain one of the most attractive income trades on the board, despite a blockbuster 2025. However, with the easy gains behind us, discipline and risk management will be essential.

In 2025, quality investing was overshadowed by AI exuberance, precious metals and momentum-driven market leadership. As volatility re-enters the picture, those same forces are being tested. Sumesh Chetty reflects on why the balance between growth, valuation and resilience is becoming harder to ignore. From gold’s rise to a reassessment of South African assets, he explores what may matter more as 2026 unfolds.

The oil price is once again being shaped by forces far beyond the fundamentals of supply and demand. Geopolitics has re-entered the equation in a meaningful way, from instability in Venezuela to rising tensions in Iran. Layered onto this is Donald Trump’s political calculus. His domestic priorities are tightly interwoven with his international stance on energy and geopolitics. Paul Gooden unpacks the complex forces influencing black gold and sets out where volatility may create opportunity. 

The JSE has delivered a standout year, led by resource names, but the real story, according to John Biccard, is only just starting. He explains why SA Inc is primed for a powerful re-rating, what the bond–equity divergence really tells us, and which sectors and stocks will dominate his portfolio as it enters 2026 with conviction.