The Huddle Breakdown

Falkirk 2-0 Celtic, and the xG debate has exploded. On this week’s Huddle Breakdown, James and Alan dig into the Celtic FC data to explain why the Hoops’ big xG total at the Falkirk Stadium doesn’t tell the real story. They cover game state, post-shot xG, and how John McGlynn’s Falkirk earned their two-goal lead before sitting deep to protect it, helped by 10 saves from man of the match Scott Bain. They also get into Celtic’s exposed right-hand side, the decision to bring Cameron Carter-Vickers back on the artificial pitch, Bauer’s heat map, the half-time switch to James Forrest, Kieran Tierney’s clearances, Falkirk’s long throws, and the Luke McCowan subs. Finally, they look ahead to Martin O’Neill’s Celtic hosting Besiktas in the Europa League. The visitors have just sacked their coach, they rank among Europe’s most intense pressing sides, and the one thing that matters for Celtic is to stop the bleeding. Want to support the channel? - https://huddlebreakdown.com Like this video and want more content like it? Subscribe to the channel below and hit the bell to get notified every time a new video goes live. Follow us on Twitter: @huddlebreakdown @Alan_Morrison67 @jucojames

Celtic dropped points at home to Dundee United, and Callum McGregor and Cameron Carter-Vickers have both suggested the team isn’t organised enough. On this week’s Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, James and Alan use the data to test that claim. The opposition is getting about 15 shots a game against Celtic and more than double the touches in the Celtic box of the 2019/20 side. xG conceded has gone up from around 1.0 a game to 1.5. One stat suggests McGregor’s struggles are about the team’s structure rather than his age: he’s being taken out of the game by opposition passes twice as often as before. They also look at how Celtic’s front players and midfield pairings fit together (Duran and Hogh, McGregor and Bauer), including a 4-4-1-1 idea. They give credit to two young players: Dane Murray, who is on his first run of consecutive starts, and Colby Donovan, who has just signed a five-year deal and stands up well against Kieran Tierney at the same age. There’s a round-up of the SPFL after Hearts 2-2 Rangers, and the projections still have Celtic winning the Scottish Premiership by around six points. Finally, they preview Falkirk: John McGlynn’s high line and pressing, a run of good luck (four own goals in their favour) and bad set-piece defending that Celtic could take advantage of. Want to support the channel? - https://huddlebreakdown.com Like this video and want more content like it? Subscribe to the channel below and hit the bell to get notified every time a new video goes live. Follow us on Twitter: @huddlebreakdown @Alan_Morrison67 @jucojames

Celtic came from behind to bag 3 points against Hibs in 50–60mph Edinburgh winds. Alan and James get into whether there’s anything to learn from a game that chaotic, the Grant Hanley-up-front gamble, Martin O’Neill’s “best performance” comments, and why finishers like Duran and Nygren are so valuable when the ball drops. They look at Alistair Johnston’s latest hamstring setback and what it says about rest, recovery and soft-tissue injuries at Celtic. They also cover the young right side of the defence, with a new five-year deal for Donovan. Then the stats come out for a Dundee United preview. Jim Goodwin’s side are well-organised and press smartly. They shoot from range, are kings of the long throw and sit high in the Speedboat League, which raises the question: should Celtic go with an Osmand, Duran, Hassan front three? Scottish Premiership analysis, xG and data-led Celtic FC talk from The Huddle Breakdown. Want to support the channel? - https://huddlebreakdown.com Like this video and want more content like it? Subscribe to the channel below and hit the bell to get notified every time a new video goes live. Follow us on Twitter: @huddlebreakdown @Alan_Morrison67 @jucojames

Celtic fell to another Europa League defeat, losing to Celta Vigo at Celtic Park, and on this Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, Martin, James and Alan get into why the Hoops keep hammering teams in the Scottish Premiership and then get carved open in Europe. James reports from his first European night at Paradise. He also shares UEFA tracking data showing Callum McGregor has covered 37.4km in three Europa League games, the second most in the whole competition. Alan breaks down the structural issues behind Celtic giving up more shots than they take, a lopsided left side, and the “Engels-sized hole” on the right. He also says Oliver Sorensen is being set up to fail. The panel discusses board accountability, the roughly £300m in missed Champions League money, the SPFL TV rights tender, and the Conference League coefficient problem facing Scottish football. They finish by previewing Sunday’s lunchtime trip to Easter Road to face bottom-of-the-table Hibs under their new manager, after David Gray’s sacking.

Celtic thrash Hearts 7-1 at Celtic Park, and James and Alan dig into the data behind the Scottish Premiership demolition. Hearts had more possession and more shots but were blown away on xG. It’s a scoreline that echoes Germany 7-1 Brazil, and the packing numbers tell a similar story. We break down why Hearts’ bold possession game plan backfired, how Callum Osmand’s first professional start on the left wing set the tone, Benjamin Nygren’s movement, Kieran Tierney’s performance, and whether Celtic’s pace up front makes them a counter-attacking force in the Europa League. We also ask whether the 7-1 really fixed Celtic’s structural problems, use MLB payrolls and analytics staff to look at how smaller clubs close resource gaps, and preview Celtic vs Celta Vigo. The topics include xG, variance, set pieces, game state and what the result means for the season ahead. Want to support the channel? - https://huddlebreakdown.com Like this video and want more content like it? Subscribe to the channel below and hit the bell to get notified every time a new video goes live. Follow us on Twitter: @huddlebreakdown @Alan_Morrison67 @jucojames

Celtic were beaten 4-1 by Benfica in Lisbon in the Europa League, and on this Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, Martin, Alan and James break down why. Alan uses packing data to show that Benfica cut through Celtic’s front three 14 times in the first half alone, and asks why Martin O’Neill left Oliver Sørensen in a number 10 role that doesn’t suit him. The guys go through all four goals and Viljami Sinisalo’s goalkeeping. Alan’s data shows how much Sebastian Tounekti’s output drops in big games compared with Gianluca Prestianni, and the panel discusses Kasper Høgh’s struggles and whether Camilo Durán should now start through the middle. To finish, they preview Celtic v Hearts in the Scottish Premiership, covering Hearts’ set-piece threat, their new style of play and the luck that has gone their way so far. Plus details of our supporters’ meetup in Glasgow city centre on Monday 26 October.

Football author and executive Ben Lyttleton (Twelve Yards, Edge, Football School) joins Alan and James on The Huddle Breakdown Interview to talk about how data analytics is changing football and what that means for Celtic. Ben goes behind the scenes of the Netherlands’ penalty data before the 2010 World Cup final. He explains why your best penalty taker should go first or fourth, and why most Premier League transfers fail. He also makes the case for a sporting director as the “guardian of the culture.” Then the conversation turns to Martin O’Neill. Ben explains how the man-management strengths that won Celtic the Scottish Premiership title are now being held against him, and how a well-run club should handle a short-term slump. They also cover over-optimisation, the comeback of the dribbling winger, and why creativity may be the one thing AI can’t predict. Ben ends with why football is still a force for good.

Celtic produced their most dominant performance in weeks at Fir Park, and Alan and James break down the data from the Motherwell win. After Liam Scales talked about the player meetings, has Celtic’s game model shifted back towards Ange-ball? Is Shaun Maloney now effectively running the team under Martin O’Neill? The guys cover the expected goals (xG), the packing numbers behind Kieran Tierney’s huge game and Bauer’s man-of-the-match display. They also cover Jota’s emotional return after three years away and why a striker’s underlying numbers don’t match the doubters. Then they look at the Scottish Premiership weekend: Rangers’ flattering win over Kilmarnock, why Hearts are a real title threat, and the “two Frankensteins” in Glasgow. To finish, a Europa League preview of Benfica, and the hard truth about how far Scotland has fallen in Opta’s European league rankings. Want to support the channel? - https://huddlebreakdown.com Like this video and want more content like it? Subscribe to the channel below and hit the bell to get notified every time a new video goes live. Follow us on Twitter: @huddlebreakdown @Alan_Morrison67 @jucojames

Is the Celtic board as successful as it claims? On this week’s Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, James benchmarks Celtic FC against Club Brugge, Sporting CP and PSV Eindhoven on revenue, matchday income, wages, player amortisation and player trading. His conclusion is that weak player trading and missed Champions League football have cost the club £300M or more under Dermot Desmond’s model, and that domestic trophies hide how far behind its European peers it has fallen. Alan explains why Scotland’s Nations League loss to Slovenia felt so familiar to Celtic fans. He also covers the knives coming out for the new manager, and why Ryan Christie, not Lewis Ferguson, should partner Billy Gilmour. Then he breaks down the Speedboat League variance data: Celtic are losing almost half a goal a game to poor finishing and to opposition goalkeepers having the best run of any SPFL side against them. Plus Falkirk’s upswing, Dundee’s “cockroach” luck, and a full Motherwell vs Celtic preview ahead of Sunday at Fir Park. Want to support the channel? - https://huddlebreakdown.com Like this video and want more content like it? Subscribe to the channel below and hit the bell to get notified every time a new video goes live. Follow us on Twitter: @huddlebreakdown @Alan_Morrison67 @jucojames