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The Horn
Chad’s Young New Ruler Tightens His Grip
In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director, about Mahamat Déby’s rule in Chad as the country heads for elections in May. They discuss Déby’s ascendance to power after the death of his father in 2021 and his initial promises for democratic transition and national dialogue. They assess the fallout of the war in Sudan in Chad and how Déby’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces has been received among his support base. They talk about the crackdowns on the Chadian opposition, the killing of Déby’s main political rival Yaya Dillo in February and what to expect in the elections next month. They also discuss Déby’s relations with other military leaders in the Sahel and his seeming turn to Moscow and other regional powers for security partnerships as relations with its traditional Western backers, notably France, are turning increasingly fraught.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Chad country page.
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1. Somalia amid a Swirl of Regional Tensions
39:54||Season 6, Ep. 1In the first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Eastern Africa analyst Omar Mahmood to discuss the escalating regional tensions involving Somalia, Egypt and Ethiopia, the uncertain future of the stabilisation mission ATMIS, which supports Mogadishu in its fight against Al-Shabaab and the presence of the Islamic State in Somalia. They unpack the worsening relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa over Ethiopia’s bid for sea access through Somaliland and the diplomatic efforts under way to defuse the tensions. They discuss Somalia’s new defence pact with Egypt and its regional implications. They talk about a possible follow-on mission to ATMIS, which is set to end by December this year, Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia and Egypt’s increasing security assistance to the country amid regional rivalries. They also discuss the growing significance of the Somali branch of the Islamic State for the group’s global operations, recent developments in Mogadishu’s fight against Al-Shabaab and whether more diplomacy could help to improve relations between Somalia and its neighbours. For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our recent briefing, The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threat and our Somalia country page.18. Kenya and the Future of Protests
36:39||Season 5, Ep. 18In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with writer and political analyst Nanjala Nyabola about the wave of nationwide protests that have swept through Kenya in recent weeks and prospects for the country and the region. They unpack the political and economic factors driving discontent among young people in Kenya, the makeup of the demonstrators and social media’s role in galvanising the protests. They discuss what options Kenya’s President William Ruto has to address the country’s economic woes and its spiralling debt crisis. They also talk about whether demonstrations might spread to other African countries facing structural challenges similar to Kenya’s and what lessons can be learned from how protest movements have played out in Sudan and elsewhere in the region.For more, check out Nanjala’s article in The Guardian The world is scrambling to understand Kenya’s historic protests – this is what too many are missing, her book Digital Democracy, Analogue Politics: How the Internet Era is Transforming Politics in Kenya and our recent Q&A What is Behind Kenya’s Protest Movement?17. Sudan is Starving. Now What?
31:19||Season 5, Ep. 17In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Alex de Waal, a leading scholar on famines as well as on Sudan and the executive director of the World Peace Foundation, to talk about the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan as the war between Sudan's Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is driving millions to starvation. They assess the scale of the hunger crisis in Sudan and how close the country is to full-blown famine. They talk about the factors driving starvation in the country and how the belligerents are using hunger as a weapon of war. They also discuss how aid access throughout the country can be restored, whether outside actors, including the U.S. and the UN, can mount a large-scale emergency response and what can be done to improve the regional and international efforts to resolve the conflict.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, you can read Alex’s article in Foreign Affairs Sudan’s Manmade Famine, our briefing Halting the Catastrophic Battle for Sudan’s El Fasher and our Sudan country page.16. With Oil Exports Disrupted, What Lies Ahead for South Sudan?
24:25||Season 5, Ep. 16In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s widening fiscal crisis, with the war in neighbouring Sudan cutting the government off from vital oil revenue, and what that could mean for the country’s political future. They unpack why elections, originally scheduled for later this year, are likely to be postponed again as the country struggles to build up a functioning voting infrastructure. They talk about mediation efforts under way in Kenya between the government and exiled opposition groups, the motivations of the participants and whether the talks can lead to a substantive agreement. They also assess whether South Sudan is headed for wider political turmoil as the government’s main source of revenue remains disrupted.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbour’s War Disrupts Oil Exports, last year’s episode with Edmund It’s Time to Start Talking About Elections in South Sudan and our South Sudan country page.15. War and Dizzying Regional Alliances in Congo’s East
39:45||Season 5, Ep. 15In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director Richard Moncrieff about the latest from DR Congo as violence in eastern North Kivu continues to escalate. They unpack the recent attack by a group of armed men in Kinshasa, which has been framed as a coup by the government. They discuss the escalating violence in eastern DR Congo as fighting between M23 rebels and government forces moves closer to the regional capital Goma. They talk about the shifting of regional alliances and Kinshasa’s turn to its southern African allies. They assess the implications of the M23 securing valuable mining sites in the region and Rwanda’s involvement in the trade of minerals originating from the DRC. They also talk about where the diplomatic efforts to end the conflict might be headed.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our previous podcast episodes Great Lakes Politics and the Fight for the Eastern DR Congo and The Boiling Regional Crisis in Eastern Congo as well as our DR Congo country page.Bonus Episode: War and Hunger in Gaza and Darfur
50:39|Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan and Gaza from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell, Shewit Woldemichael, Rami Dajani and Rob Blecher about the latest from Sudan’s western Darfur region and from Gaza. Richard first talks to Alan and Shewit about the worsening violence in North Darfur. As the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces encircle the city of al-Fashar, the last Darfuri capital held by the Sudanese army, and both sides build up forces, they talk about the implications of an all-out battle for the city. They also discuss the legacy of the 2020 Juba peace agreement and why some Darfuri former rebels have now chosen to fight alongside the Sudanese army against the RSF. Richard then talks to Rami and Rob about Israel’s incursion this past week into Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah. They discuss prospects for talks over a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Cairo, the views of both Hamas and the Israeli government on what such a deal should entail and Israeli politics around the Rafah offensive. They also talk about the difficulties of aid delivery and famine risks in both Sudan and Gaza. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement Sudan: A Year of War and our report Stopping Famine in Gaza.Bonus Episode: What’s Left of Sudan After a Year At War?
44:55|Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss Sudan’s war on the eve of its first anniversary. They talk about what’s happening on the battlefield, particularly recent gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had appeared to have the upper hand. They unpack the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and aid access restricted by the warring parties as famine looms. They also discuss internal dynamics within Sudan’s Armed Forces, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF. They examine outside powers’ roles, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the army, the United Arab Emirates widely thought to be arming the RSF, and how foreign involvement has evolved. They also discuss the difficulties of getting the warring parties’ leaders to talk even about a ceasefire, let alone a more sustainable end to the fighting, and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.14. New U.S. Envoy on Ending Sudan’s War
38:27||Season 5, Ep. 14In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Tom Perriello, recently appointed U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, about the obstacles to peace in Sudan after a year of fighting and Washington’s plans to revitalise diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. They unpack the challenging task of bringing the leaders of the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table as the conflict continues to proliferate throughout the country amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They discuss prospects for aligning the interests of outside actors involved in the fighting, notably Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, what a concerted effort to end the conflict could look like as well as potential sticking points to a peace deal. They also talk about how the country could return to a political process once the fighting has subsided.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.