Share

cover art for Will Russia resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

The Global Gambit

Will Russia resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

Episode Outline

As the Ukraine War worsens, the threat of nuclear weapons has remained present throughout. Yet, Putin hasn't followed through and so the question remains around the propensity for him to use them, alongside the narratives that emerge on nuclear use more broadly. Alongside scheduled guests, TGG had surprise expert appearances enriching the conversation in the latter half. Questions/themes included: 

  • What are the current conditions around nuclear weapons and the existing treaties? 
  • How does Russia approach nuclear weapons and their treatment compared to the West?
  • What would be the propensity for Putin to use them and how would the West/NATO respond?
  • If Russia did use them, how would that influence other countries who want to pursue nuclear proliferation? 
  • How significant would tactical nuclear weapons be next to strategic ones/ICBMs? 
  • How can we improve the narrative surrounding nuclear weapons? 

Guest Profiles

This episode had the following experts:

Dr. Alexander Bollfrass works as a Senior Researcher at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Security Studies from Princeton University and worked on nuclear issues at Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom, as well as the Stimson Center and the Arms Control Association.

Dr. Nicole Grajewski is a Stanton Nuclear Security Post-Doctoral Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A scholar of Russian foreign policy, she holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Oxford.

Dr. Stephen Herzog is senior Research at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies, as well as an Associate of Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom. He worked for the Federation of American Scientists and at the U.S. Department of Energy. Stephen holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University.

Surprise appearances were also made by:

Heather Williams
, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS.

Pavel Podvig, a Senior Researcher in the WMD Programme at UNIDIR. 

Support the show

Considering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)

This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

So, if any of those resonate with you, consider chipping to the GG, as allows me to improve its quality and elevate the experience for you.

And if you're unable able to do that - no worries. Please leave a review, or share GG. This small action has BIG impact in helping it grow and broaden its visibility to more audiences.

Links

More episodes

View all episodes

  • 443. Could Cyprus Become Two Separate Nations?

    33:40||Season 1, Ep. 443
    Cyprus marked the 50th anniversary of Turkey's invasion to the north of the island on July 20th 1974. Since Cyprus and the Cypriot people have remained divided by a United Nations buffer zone to prevent further conflict, including the only remaining split capital city Nicosia. Despite diplomatic efforts between Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and even the UK that controls too strategic military bases, prospects of reunification or any change remain low. I am joined by fellow YouTuber James Ker-Lindsay, and expert of Cyprus to cover this forgotten crisis and example of how complex geopolitics can be. We debate how Greek vs Turkish Cypriots differ in their feelings over separation, how the island has involved in the past decades, the roles of Britain, Greece, and Turkey especially, and why a 'two-state solution' may be more likely than reunification. Follow me for MoreX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support my WorkPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease leave the show a rating - its quick, easy and free to do, but helps me out tremendously.
  • 43. Could Israel & Hezbollah Actually Go to War?

    38:39||Season 1, Ep. 43
    Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of full-scale as the President Benjamin Netanyahu seriously considers sending the IDF into Lebanon. However, Hezbollah is not Hamas, being far more powerful and the flagship proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which could threaten escalating the war across the Middle East as the Ayatollah's don't want to lose such a military and strategic asset.This time l am joined by Ryan Bohl, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange) to discuss this latest escalation. I challenged Ryan on how likely a Israel-Hezbollah war is, who and which assets are most at risk, how Netanyahu is costing the Israeli economy, whether the US can reign in Israel or prevent full-scale conflict, and if Iran could get pulled in.Follow me for MoreX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support my WorkPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease leave the show a rating - its quick, easy and free to do, but helps tremendously.
  • 42. If we're in a New Cold War, does the USA need a new grand strategy for China?

    57:31||Season 1, Ep. 42
    China thinks 'its their historical right to be' the world's foremost power, and the US 'doesn't have a moment to waste' in adequately preparing or responding to the flashpoint that could bring the 21st centuries largest powers to war: War over Taiwan. We truly are in a Cold War II and its time we stop kidding ourselves. That's according to Dmitri Alperovitch - Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, Co-Founder of Crowdstrike, and author of the new book 'World on the Brink. A prolific voice in the areas of geopolitics, grand strategy, and cybersecurity, I challenged Dmitri to explain why he thinks we're in Cold War 2.0, what a Chinese invasion would look like, how the US needs to step up, and each's shortcomings and volatiles that could worsen escalation risks even more. Pick up Dmitri's book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096. Watch this interview and more on the YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg
  • 41. What has the Russia-Ukraine War Done to Human Rights, War Crimes & the Law of War?

    32:36||Season 1, Ep. 41
    Thanks to all who support my work on Patreon - you make this possible If you'd like bonus content, your own questions put to guests, and appreciate my efforts to bring diverse, nuanced conversations consider joining as a patron too or buying me a one-off coffee.Due to being MIA for so long - here is another episode! Normal service of the show will resume hereon-out, with 2 episodes a month. If you want more, subscribe to the YouTube. The Russia-Ukraine War is the most documented conflict in history. One of the darkest, toughest parts is recording evidence to expose Putin's war crimes and hold this war in line to international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict). A pioneer in this is Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, head of the Center for Civil Liberties and a 2022 Nobel Laureate.We cover the importance of the US aid package to Ukraine, Oleksandra touring America and rallying Congress for support, her work documenting Russian war crimes, why the Russia Ukraine War is threatening human rights international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict) and much more.
  • 40. Have the Iran-Israel Clashes put the Middle East in a New Permacrisis?

    34:49||Season 1, Ep. 40
    Israel and Iran’s clashes over April 2024 has left the Middle East in state of permacrisis. While immediate threat of war escalation seems to have subsided, the long term geopolitical implications are unprecedented. Many consider this to be a new reality for the region and how we interpret developments.To explain why, Bilal Saab - professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service & Dr Sanam Vakil - Director of Chatham House’s MENA programme, joined me for this extraordinarily timely conversation.Follow the show for updates and content:X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit
  • 39. Are the Houthis in Yemen permanently reshaping global commercial shipping?

    50:48||Season 1, Ep. 39
    Since Oct 7th the world has been rocked by the Israel-Hamas War. That has caused a series if escalations, including the ongoing Houthi disruptions to maritime security and global commercial shipping.Its so severe, the US and UK have initiated airstrikes in Yemen, but has made little difference and if anything only emboldens the Houthis more and who say they wont stop until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza. However, the long-term of these events on shipping are unprecedented, and not merely about the Houthis actions, but those of the ship insurers, explains Sal Dr. Salvatore Mercogliano - Chair of the Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell University. And the ramifications really are redefining global economic processes as well as geopolitical tensions. Follow for the LIVE ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 38. South Asia: A region in Good or Bad Condition?

    51:02||Season 1, Ep. 38
    South Asia - or the Indian subcontinent to others - is going through a concentrated set of shifts. Three of the main players - Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, all have major elections next year with each proposing potentially different directions - but which? Returning guest, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Program at the Wilson Centre sat down with me to outline, the challenges and details of these 3 countries on the geopolitical landscape. And while they all share elections, the reasons for, and potential consequences from, vary significantly, in a globe already highly unpredictable. Follow for LIVE ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 37. Can the UN's COP28 deliver on Climate Change?

    22:30||Season 1, Ep. 37
    The United Nations Climate Change Conference - known to most as COP - and in this case, COP28, is the highest-level of international engagement and gathering to find collective solutions to the globe's greatest collective challenge. Yet, COPs have poor reputations, with little tangible products or outcomes occurring - other than an agreement of inaction. But, as l spoke to Nazanine Moshiri - senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and attending COP28, this years began with an uplifting start - implementation of the loss and damage fund. But that's just the start, and as Nazanine made clear, there is real need to include one specific aspect: climate-conflict and security challenges. Follow for the LIVE ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!
  • 36. Is the BRICS bloc Overhyped or Underestimated?

    30:34||Season 1, Ep. 36
    2023 was a big year for multinational, multi-forum events, ranging from the G20 to BRICS to the annual UN General Assembly. But of these, the concept and symbolism of BRICS is often the one that captures the minds of people, especially those who tend to have anti-Western sentiments and desire for a multipolar order. But why this fascination, arguably infatuation for the BRICS? Is it purely about it removing the US hegemony or something else? What of the expansion consisting of 6 new members? My guest Ali Wyne, senior analyst in Global Macro at Eurasia Group, joined me for an in-depth conversation and exchange of ideas in this thoroughly enlightening yet entertaining episode. Follow for Live ShowsX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzinYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/Support the ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitPlease drop a like and share around - it REALLY supports independent shows like GG and only takes a few clicks!