Share
The Debrief
Inside Luxury's Slowdown
For nearly a decade, the luxury sector has experienced what seemed like limitless growth, with brands like Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Chanel pushing product prices higher — and seeing consumers pay up. However, recent quarterly reports have marked a sudden shift, with even industry giants reporting disappointing revenue. As luxury editor Robert Willliams explains, “These brands are omnipresent and people are seeing them everywhere. Whether consumers finally pull the trigger is so much about their economic confidence, this feel-good factor. Are things going to be better for me next month than they are today?”
This week, BoF executive editor Brian Baskin and luxury editor Robert Williams discuss the forces contributing to this downturn, the implications for top brands and potential strategies luxury players are exploring to reignite growth.
Key Insights:
- Global economic uncertainty has hit U.S. and European luxury spending hard. “Whether they finally pull the trigger [on a big purchase] is about economic confidence,” explains Williams, noting that factors like inflation, wage stagnation, and election cycles have consumers second-guessing expensive purchases. There are similar issues in Europe, with proximity to conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and Russia additionally impacting consumer sentiment and spending power.
- However, according to Williams, the biggest issue is China pulling back on this type of spending. China’s luxury market has always been a growth engine, but changing economic sentiments and less travel due to COVID are affecting luxury sales. “[Chinese consumers] are really holding out for when they feel better about the economy. … They’re holding out for when they can feel like they can get a deal because prices are higher in China than most of the world for luxury brands,” says Williams.
- Many consumers are frustrated with steep price increases, as seen with Dior’s Lady Dior bag, which has jumped 76% in price since 2019. “Customers are quite fed up with how dramatic the price increases have been often for like for like products,” Williams states, adding that consumers often feel they’re “spending a lot more for something that’s not necessarily as good.” Even if quality hasn’t declined, the perception has, especially with social media spotlighting any issues. “With the way our Internet culture works, if someone has an issue with the product, they can make that so public in a way and really disenchant a lot of people and their audience and make them question, is this high price worth it?”
- Facing a saturated market after years of rapid growth and price hikes, many forecast that 2025 and 2026 are to be similarly stagnant or negative periods for sales.” Even if it wasn't just a question of the prices or if there weren't these other macroeconomic factors, there could be a sense of having saturated the market, of people needing to be bored with fashion a bit so that then they can rediscover it. I'm not sure that it's the right time to introduce the next big idea if you were the one who had it,” says Williams. “Because if you're among the brands whose sales are quite negative … then how much can you really invest in telling the world that you're the one who has the next big idea?”.
Additional Resources:
More episodes
View all episodes
What Happened to Beauty’s Billion-Dollar Brands?
25:37|The beauty industry has witnessed a wave of disruptors rise and fall. Brands like Anastasia Beverly Hills, Glossier and Morphe leveraged social media and influencer marketing to achieve rapid success and unicorn valuations. But maintaining momentum has proven challenging, and some of these disruptor brands have seen sales fall and financial hurdles mount. As Glossier proves, there is the possibility of a second chance, but it requires radical changes to the business to pull off. As beauty correspondent Daniela Morosini points out, “The barriers to entry have been removed. You can get a critical mass of fans and build an aesthetic for your brand quite quickly. Making it stick is more difficult.” In today’s crowded market, sustainable growth and a deliberate strategy are essential for standing out.Key Insights: Slower growth in a crowded market can ensure longevity. “It’s the ones that are maybe growing a little bit slower, not having this initial huge rush and then a massive drop-off,” says Morosini. While brands can gain a critical mass of fans and build an aesthetic quickly, sustaining that momentum is much harder in today’s saturated market. “You go on TikTok, and there are 50 brands fighting for your attention. You go to Sephora, there's another 50,” Morosini adds. By focusing on steady, intentional growth, brands are better equipped to stand out and thrive in an environment where consumer choices are overwhelmingly abundant.In a saturated market, having a knowledgeable and authentic founder can differentiate a brand and build trust with consumers. “Brands that had a founder with expertise as a makeup artist or some other kind of professional qualifications helped bear out the brand and add a little bit more credence to it,” says Morosini. These founders often bring a personal approach to their brand, which resonates with consumers.Glossier’s success shows the value of balancing adaptation with staying true to a brand’s core mission. Despite being digital-first, the brand quickly established a physical presence, which “helped enmesh them and establish themselves with more the kind of quote unquote, middle-American consumer, just like a general shopper versus someone who is like a die-hard beauty fan,” explains Morosini. By moving away from an exclusively direct-to-consumer model, Glossier also refocused on its product assortment and customer needs. “Giving up on the DTC-only thing probably allowed them to take a hard look at their product assortment and build out more products that people were really interested in,” Morosini adds.A key lesson for emerging beauty brands is to prepare for both boom and bust cycles. As Morosini explains, “You’re probably going to be getting your most attention both from consumers and investors or acquirers during your fat years. And you need to be ready for the lean years because they're going to come.” She emphasises the importance of hedging strategies, noting, “No matter how well things are going, there will be a competitor snapping at your heels around the corner. Making sure that you’re keeping your strategy and product assortment broad enough to weather that.” Flexibility and foresight are essential to navigating inevitable market shifts.Additional Resources:How Anastasia Beverly Hills Lost Its Footing | BoFUrban Decay’s ‘Naked’ Relaunch Is a Hit. Now Comes the Hard Part. | BoFWhy Some Sports Win Big in Fashion — and Others Don't
32:53|In recent years, sports has provided a rich ground for fashion partnerships. Where even three years ago Dior’s tie-up with Paris Saint-Germain was relatively novel, today it’s harder to find luxury brands that aren’t at least dabbling in football, Formula 1 or other sports. These deals are also getting increasingly elaborate, with brands outfitting athletes, teams and even entire leagues on and off the field. This new wave of partnerships is about more than just looks or finding new audiences — it’s about cultural relevance. “Fashion brands have looked to [sports] to market their products to groups of consumers who maybe weren’t targeted by these brands previously, and athletes themselves have become major brands and media businesses in their own right,” says BoF sports correspondent Daniel-Yaw Miller.This week on The Debrief, Executive Editor Brian Baskin and Senior Correspondent Sheena Butler-Young sit down with Daniel-Yaw Miller to explore how the worlds of fashion and sports are colliding like never before.Key Insights: For a partnership to be successful, it must feel authentic. Arsenal's collaboration with London-based brand Labrum, which presented a runway show at Arsenal's stadium is a prime example. The jersey colours draw influence from the Pan-African flag and hint to the histories of the players and the club. "That partnership makes sense on a cultural level and fans can buy into that authentic messaging rather than just a logo swap,” he says.As individual athletes gain larger followings, brands see more appeal in creating tailored partnerships with rising stars like Coco Gauff and Angel Reese. “Athletes now have a direct bond with fans that the previous generation of stars never had,” Miller notes. “Sports fans have had insights into Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka’s lives since they were teenagers. They’ve grown with them, and that’s at the very essence of their appeal to these brands.”The rise of women’s sports has opened doors for fashion brands that previously overlooked the sector. "And that's really opened up the sports industry, which has traditionally been extremely male dominated. So a whole range of luxury womenswear brands that previously never really had an entry point into the sports industry,” Miller explains. Some sports struggle to find traction in the fashion world. While Formula 1 has embraced luxury, baseball remains on the sidelines. “Baseball has never quite broken out to have true global appeal in a sense that fashion could leverage,” Miller says. “I think baseball is very similar to where Formula One was before the Liberty Media acquisition, where there was a strict atmosphere around showing an interest in things that are outside the direct line of business for a baseball organisation that's hampered how much the sport and the athletes have been able to be in fashion.”Additional Resources:Fashion’s Sports Obsession Is No Accident | BoF How Athletes Became Fashion Week Royalty | BoF.Inside the Big Business of Styling Athletes | BoFCan AI Make Shopping Online Less Annoying?
24:04|Online shopping promises convenience, but finding the right product among thousands – or hundreds of thousands – of options can often feel like a chore. To address this, retailers are experimenting with AI tools that aim to cut through the clutter with improved search capabilities and personalised shopping experiences. These models don’t just match keywords; they understand user intent and interpret complex search terms, moving closer to a more personal shopping experience online.“Search works really well when you know specifically what you're looking for,” senior technology correspondent Marc Bain notes, “but there’s potential for AI to bridge that gap when you don’t.”This week on The Debrief, BoF executive editor Brian Baskin and senior correspondent Sheena Butler-Young sit down with Bain to explore how AI is transforming e-commerce.Key Insights: New AI search tools are evolving past traditional keyword searches, enhancing users’ ability to find what they’re looking for online with greater ease. “These large language models could change search in a way that you can interact with it more naturally,” explains Bain. With AI’s advanced understanding of nuanced searches like “what should I wear to Burning Man?”, these systems can now deliver results based on context, location, and style preferences, making online shopping a more seamless, intuitive experience.AI in e-commerce aims to serve as an attentive, personalised assistant, but brands face the challenge of enhancing the customer experience while maintaining a respectful distance in the digital space. AI must fall on “the right side of the line between concierge and creepy,” Baskin explains. "The ideal is having an online sales associate … where it doesn’t feel like … it’s just throwing products at you to see what sticks,” continues Bain. The goal of AI in e-commerce is to make shopping more intuitive by simplifying search. As Bain notes, “search is notoriously terrible on retail e-commerce sites,” highlighting the need for improvement. However, despite these advancements, consumers may remain hesitant to fully trust AI-driven recommendations. Bain reflects this sentiment, adding, “I would probably look at what it says and then still go do my own research because I don’t fully trust it.” Additional Resources:The E-Commerce Search Bar Gets an AI Makeover | BoF How AI Could Change Online Product Search and Discovery | BoFCase Study | How to Create the Perfect E-Commerce Site | BoFHow Dupe Culture is Challenging Traditional Luxury
30:03|A growing number of direct-to-consumer brands are disrupting the luxury market by offering high-quality alternatives at more affordable prices. As traditional luxury brands focus on the ultra-wealthy and fast fashion dominates the budget market, these “dupe” brands cater to middle-class consumers who feel priced out of luxury but still want value for their money. Through transparent pricing and savvy use of social media, they are reshaping how consumers think about value and quality.“The term dupe stems from duplication, but it also does speak to consumer sentiment around pricing today - they do feel duped,” says e-commerce correspondent Malique Morris. “Luxury brands have exponentially raised their prices for hip products in a way that is locking out middle class shoppers who typically could splurge on a few nice bags or a few nice sweaters a year.” Key insights:As luxury brands continue to hike prices for their most popular products, middle-class consumers are feeling increasingly excluded from the luxury market. This sentiment is fueling the rise of brands like Quince and Italic. “Luxury brands have exponentially raised their prices for hip products in a way that is locking out middle class shoppers who typically could splurge on a few nice bags or a few nice sweaters a year,” says Morris. “The check is going to come due for luxury brands to explain why their prices are so high.”Dupe brands take advantage of this dynamic by being open about their costs, breaking down exactly how much it takes to produce their items and what they’re selling them for. “Dupe brands are almost annoyingly transparent about pricing in terms of breaking down,” Morris explains. “That’s refreshing for middle-class shoppers who are seeing the prices of things like milk and eggs rise inexplicably. Outside of this vague bogeyman of inflation, their dreams of owning a Chanel bag is moving further away with no real explanation on that front either.” Platforms like TikTok and Instagram have been instrumental in the rise of dupe brands, where influencers showcase cheaper alternatives to high-end products. However, the sustainability of this trend is uncertain. “If consumers stop caring about dupes and engagement goes down, then social media leverage on this front will die out for these brands, but right now, it really is a boon for them,” says Morris.While price is the main draw for dupe brands now, they will need to evolve beyond being simply the cheaper alternative. “What is our differentiator beyond offering good prices now? What is our storytelling? What are our products that are unique to us? If dupe brands can answer those questions, they’ll stop being seen as just cheaper versions,” says Morris. Additional Resources:What Luxury ‘Dupe’ Brands Get Right About Shoppers | BoF Is Dupe Culture Out of Control? | BoFHow Beauty Blunders Go Viral and What Brands Do Next
30:00|The beauty industry thrives on virality, but in the age of social media, that can be a double-edged sword. One viral TikTok video can catapult a brand to success — or bring it to its knees. From Youthforia’s foundation shade controversy to Huda Beauty’s mislabeling error, brands are discovering that managing customer expectations and addressing backlash swiftly is critical to their survival.“It happens pretty fast when it does happen. … Sometimes it’s an unknown creator who can make [a product] go viral for all the wrong reasons,” says beauty correspondent Daniela Morosini. “You have to be willing to listen when they tell you that you got it wrong.”Key Insights: Building a strong brand community involves more than just creating a product; it means engaging with your customers and allowing them to have a meaningful role in your brand’s development. “If you're going to create a community to help your brand grow, you need to understand that those customers want a seat at the table,” says Morosini. Listening to customer feedback, especially when things go wrong, is crucial. Being proactive in addressing customer complaints is crucial. As demonstrated by Huda Beauty’s mislabeling issue, taking responsibility early on and offering solutions can stop a backlash from spiralling. Morosini notes, “She took full accountability and offered to make everybody whole if they’d bought the wrong shade.”Hair care products, especially those tied to hair loss, tend to evoke emotional responses and intense scrutiny. The stakes are high as hair loss is a sensitive, deeply personal issue. As Morosini points out, “There are so many factors that can cause hair loss… people don't want to roll the dice if there's even a 1% chance a product could be the cause.”Complexion product mishaps can be particularly damaging for beauty brands, as they quickly highlight inclusivity gaps. “It’s just so obvious when a brand has missed the mark with complexion,” says Morosini. “Oftentimes the scandals that seem to cause a lot of blowback, they come back to that exclusionary point,” she adds. “Nobody likes to feel left out.”Additional Resources:What to Do When a Beauty Product Launch Goes Wrong | BoFWhy Beauty Brands Keep Getting Accused of Causing Hair Loss — and What They Can Do About It Editor's Note: The hosts mistakenly identified a YSL blush as a Givenchy blush. BoF regrets this error.How Influencers Make Money
24:25|The influencer landscape has shifted dramatically over the last decade. While the image of influencers posting flawless selfies on exotic, brand-sponsored trips still resonates, the reality has become far more complex. Influencers now host live shoppable streams, publish newsletters on Substack and engage in intimate group chats. Their goal is not just to build a following and wait for brands to come calling, but to establish multiple sources of income through affiliate links, brand deals, and subscription models.“Influencers and creators have realised that they need to diversify and be on multiple platforms. They need to be connecting with their followers in multiple ways and have a deeper relationship with their followers,” says Diana Pearl, senior news and features editor. “Even five years ago, there were people who didn't really take this industry very seriously and didn't realise the difference they could make for their brand. Now it is impossible to ignore.”Key Insights:In the evolving digital landscape, influencers and creators are no longer relying on a single platform for success. Diversifying their presence across platforms, from Instagram to Substack, is key. Pearl emphasises, “It’s really all just about diversification... not relying so much on one source, not having to rely so much on Instagram, the algorithm, affiliate links and brand deals.”While macro-influencers may reach a broader audience, smaller influencers often have more engaged, loyal followers. “Once you get so big and you've got millions and millions of followers, you can't have that type of relationship with 5 million people the way you can with 100,000,” says Pearl.The rivalry between influencer marketing platforms LTK and ShopMy highlights a shift in the landscape, with ShopMy offering influencers more control and transparency. Pearl explains that while LTK encourages creators to centralise their content on its app, ShopMy allows influencers to share across platforms. “We know our audience, we know what content resonates with them. But if you hand us this really detailed brief and expect us to act like a traditional ad agency... it’s just not going to come off as authentic,” Pearl explains.The industry is becoming more nuanced, with clear distinctions emerging between influencers and creators. While creators focus on producing unique, engaging content, influencers drive sales and hold sway over purchasing decisions. Influence remains the key asset in the industry, one that can be translated across platforms like Instagram, TikTok, or Substack. "At the end of the day, the most valuable commodity in this business is influence," Pearl explains.By understanding their goals and selecting the right partner to meet them, brands can optimise the impact of their influencer campaigns and better connect with their target audiences. “Brands just need to be smart about what are your goals, what’s the right type of person to achieve these goals or right type of partner and who should we go with from there?” says Pearl. Additional Resources:The Widening Gap Between Influencers and CreatorsThe Fight for Influencer Marketing Dollars Heats UpWhat’s Driving the Influencer Subscription BoomCan Department Stores Save Themselves?
28:48|For decades, department stores were symbols of American retail success, but their shine has long since faded. Overexpansion that began in the 1990s, the growth of e-commerce and the decline of many malls has left a saturated market, with more stores than there is demand. Major department stores have been struggling for decades to adapt to changes in the way their customers shop, with little to show for it. "These challenges existed ten years ago, but the problem we have today is that it’s getting later and later, and more and more desperate for these department stores. Time is running out, and they still haven’t figured out the solution,” says retail editor Cat Chen.In this episode of The Debrief, BoF senior correspondent Sheena Butler-Young speaks with Chen about why department stores are struggling to stay relevant, how activist investors are complicating the picture, and whether following the approach of European department stores like Selfridges can save this iconic segment of the retail industry. Key Insights:Activist investors have been targeting department stores like Macy’s and Kohl’s, but they are more interested in these companies’ real estate portfolios than retail. Chen highlights the parallels with Sears, where the investor Eddie Lampert spun out Sears’ real estate into a separate entity, ultimately leading to its bankruptcy. “The sentiment in the industry is that if these companies were bought out by activist investors it would not be a good sign for the health of these department stores. There wouldn’t be a long-term strategy for maintaining their health,” she says.Nordstrom's strategy for revival includes focusing on experiential retail, enhancing customer service, and possibly going private under the Nordstrom family’s ownership. These moves would allow them to invest in the long-term health of the company without the pressure of quarterly earnings. “The Nordstrom family is really set on making some radical, transformative changes to Nordstrom that they just can't make as a public entity,” Chen explains.European department stores are a potential model for American department stores to replicate. “Look at Selfridges or look at Le Bon Marché. People love spending time in those stores — tourists but also locals,” Chen says. Explaining how European stores are treated like flagships, with significant investments in customer experience and meticulous attention to detail, she adds, “these companies invest in the layout of the store — fixtures, carpeting, lighting — all of these details matter, and European department stores have done a great job making it happen.” Additional Resources:Why Nordstrom’s Founding Family Wants to Take the Retailer Private | BoFInnovation Won’t Save Department Stores. The Right Products Will. | BoFCan Saks, Neiman Marcus and Amazon Save the American Department Store? | BoFWhy Does Menswear All Look the Same?
26:35|A style renaissance that changed how many men dress – mostly for the better – has congealed into a sea of sameness, at least in the eyes of a growing number of fashion critics and influencers. Too many interchangeable brands take the same approach, blending tailoring with casualwear in neutral-toned collections that are stylish but often fail to inspire. The look is often derided as a menswear “starter pack,” but remains popular with consumers. This week on The Debrief, Brian Baskin sits down with correspondents Malique Morris and Lei Takanashi to discuss why this “starter pack” approach works for the industry - but at the cost of long-term brand building and customer loyalty. Additionally, they probe what brands must do to recapture consumers' imagination.“Any brand can make a good product, but what makes a brand good, especially a good menswear brand, is having a great story that's worth telling,” says Takanashi.Key Insights:Menswear brands today are following a familiar formula, leading to a prevalence of “starter pack” lookbooks. “They all do some sort of version of this. Approachability, timeless, stylish and handsome but inoffensive look,” says Morris. This marketing playbook, popularised by brands like Aimé Leon Dore and followed by many others, has led to a lack of creativity and experimentation. As Morris puts it, “everything is good and nothing is great. So if everyone can dress well, then no one is actually cool.”What makes brands stand out over decades isn’t radical changes in design, but compelling storytelling and mythmaking. Morris argues consumers may not be loyal to today’s menswear brands in the long term if they're just buying into a trendy and easy to copy aesthetic. But Takanashi notes that for certain brands that are seen as authentically embracing this style, their best bet is stick to what’s worked: “I feel like in the case of brands like Aimé Leon Dore and Supreme, the long game for them is becoming a heritage label … they have such a distinct point of view that they will always have a core consumer.” As Morris puts it, “what brands should think about is just being themselves.”Additional resources:Why Menswear Is Getting a Marketing Refresh | BoFCan Off-White Get Back on Track? | BoFHow the Streetwear Customer Is Evolving | BoF