Swamp Chronicles

For the final, bonus episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard, director of ECFR and host of the “World in 30 Minutes” podcast, about the results of yesterday’s US election.Together they discuss who turned out for Donald Trump and why; what Trump did right and what Kamala Harris did wrong; and how Trump’s choice of personnel for his second administration might impact future policumaking. Aydıntaşbaş and Shapiro share their thoughts on the change in economic and international relations under Trump, the concentration of power in the executive – and the looming potential of a dictatorship. How should European leaders should respond to the challenging political landscape in the US? And what mistakes should they avoid in this time of change?

For the ninth episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Célia Belin, head of the ECFR Paris office and senior policy fellow and Majda Ruge, ECFR senior policy fellow, about the US election and the different foreign policy tribes within the Democratic and Republican party. Together, Belin and Ruge discuss the foreign policy divisions within both the Republican and Democratic parties. They explore the various factions and their positions on key foreign policy issues, including Ukraine and the Middle East. The conversation also examines how different foreign policy positions could affect Europe and the potential partnerships between the US and Europe in the future, especially considering the growing populist movements in Europe. Finally, everyone gives their prediction on who will next week’s election.Music was recorded and produced by Kingston Lindner.

For the eighth episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former deputy assistant to the president and senior director for European and Russian affairs on the US National Security Council, about the future of transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine after the election. Hill discusses America’s global leadership and the impact of a smaller US presence in Europe. Sharing her experience from the first Trump administration, she warns of the lack of ‘adults in the room’ during a potential second Trump term and the impact his choice of personnel might have on the American government. Hill also talks about the potential future of the war in Ukraine under both Trump and Kamala Harris, and the complications that lie ahead for the next US president when dealing with Putin and Russia.

For the seventh episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Ed Luce, US national editor and columnist at the Financial Times and author of The Retreat of Western Liberalism about what either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory would mean for America, US foreign policy, and Europe.  Luce discusses his belief that a Trump win would put US constitutional order at stake and details the crisis that would arise, should his mass deportation plan be put into action. He describes how billionaires such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel are influencing the race and how JD Vance fits into the future of the Republican party in its current guise. Luce also shares his thoughts on how the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could develop in the scenario of either a Harris or a Trump administration.

For the sixth episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome to Matt Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy and former foreign policy advisor to senator Bernie Sanders. Together, they discuss American policy in the Middle East and the future of progressive foreign policy. Duss describes the Biden administration’s hesitancy to pressure Binyamin Netanyahu, and how the Democratic Party balances between its progressive and mainstream factions over America’s policy in the Middle East. He discusses who a Kamala Harris administration might appoint if the Democratics are victorious at the upcoming United States presidential election and shares his thoughts on the future of the war in Ukraine.

For the fifth episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Ken Weinstein, Japan chair and former president and CEO of the Hudson Institute, about Donald Trump’s outsider perspective, and the similarities and differences in US Indo-Pacific policy in a potential Trump or Kamala Harris administration. Weinstein explains Trump’s desire to restore the American deterrent and reestablish ‘peace through strength.’ He describes Trump’s debate tactics and discusses how he thinks this style has strengthened America’s position at the negotiating table. Weinstein also shares his belief that the US should utilise partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region to get ahead in the strategic competition against China.

For the third episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Dan Caldwell, public policy advisor at Defense Priorities, about the American foreign policy restrainer movement, the future of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the importance of Trump’s choice of personnel for his potential second administration. Caldwell examines the impact of America’s recent foreign policy failures on the restrainer movement, the movement’s future, and whether Trump himself is a restrainer. Caldwell also discusses his belief that a second Trump administration will pursue policies closely aligned to the restrainer movement and be filled with new personnel who are more aligned with this ideology than during his first four-year term.Music recorded and produced by Kingston Lindner

For the third episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro continue to take a deeper look at the state of play in the upcoming US presidential election and discuss the implications for Europe. This week, they talk to Norman Eisen, senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and former ethics czar in the Obama administration, to discuss the stakes of the presidential race, threats to democracy, the Harris-Walz campaign, and the potential election night drama come 5 November.  Eisen discusses nightmare scenarios of contested elections, including in the state of Georgia, where state electors might not ratify election results if Donald Trump loses. Eisen also questions the role of the US Supreme Court in determining the next US president, especially in contested elections. He describes the US Supreme Court and its recent role in culture wars and the reversal of US abortion laws as the “MAGA tribunal”.Music recorded and produced by Kingston Lindner.

Statistics show that the United States has a robust economy flush with opportunity; but poll after poll of the American public indicates discontent. The 2024 election will be framed by this metaphysical malaise, with Donald Trump and his MAGA movement finding strength in the community of alienated voters. Now Kamala Harris must also secure a narrative which not only addresses the country’s emotional burden, but helps her to form a loyal community of her own.For the second episode of ECFR’s Swamp Chronicles series, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Connecticut senator Chris Murphy to discuss America’s ‘metaphysical’ crisis and the post-neoliberal framing of the 2024 election. What is the impact of the loneliness epidemic on US society? How is post-neoliberalism shaping the Harris-Walz agenda? And what might a post-neoliberal path mean for Europe?Music recorded and produced by Kingston Lindner