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Senedd Sources
Plaid Win, Reform UK Surge, Labour Humiliation: Caerphilly By-Election
The Caerphilly by-election has shaken Welsh politics to its core. In this Senedd Sources flash reaction episode, Calum Macdonald, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton unpack a dramatic night for Welsh democracy.
š Plaid Cymru has claimed victory with 47% of the vote ā the partyās first win in Caerphilly for 100 years ā while Labour crashed to third, and Reform UK surged into second with 36%. What does this mean for Keir Starmerās Labour, for Nigel Farageās Reform movement, and for Welsh politics ahead of the 2026 Senedd election?
In this episode:
- Why turnout hit a record 50% ā and what it tells us about voter anger
- How tactical voting shaped the result
- Why Reformās rise could reshape the Senedd in 2026
- Whether Plaid Cymru can hold together its new coalition of voters
- What Labour must do to recover before May 2026
šŗ Subscribe to Senedd Sources on YouTube for sharp, insider analysis of Welsh politics ā from the Caerphilly by-election to the road to 2026.
š§ Also listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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12. Labour Civil War, Assisted Dying Bill Explained & Walesā Ā£16bn Investment Summit,
49:52||Season 1, Ep. 12Wales just hosted its biggest investment event in decades ā but will the Ā£16bn announcements move the polls before Mayās Senedd elections?In this weekās Senedd Sources, Ollie, Jo and Craig break down a huge week in Welsh politics:š¢ Walesā Global Investment Summit⢠Was the Ā£16bn package real, new or repackaged?⢠What role did UK Labour ministers, the Prince of Wales, and companies like Nvidia play?⢠Will it help Welsh Labour before the Senedd elections?ā ļø Welsh Labour Backbench Revolt⢠11 Labour MSs accuse Westminster of ārolling back devolutionā⢠Why they say a Labour UK Government is ābypassingā Wales⢠How this impacts the campaign ā and whether UK Labour is listeningš Reform UKās Welsh Leadership Mystery⢠Why former Welsh Secretary David Jones WONāT be leading Reform⢠What his decision means ā and who might step ināļø Assisted Dying Bill & WalesWith guest Fran Hall from Dignity in Dying, we explore:⢠What the Assisted Dying Bill means for Wales⢠Why the Senedd must vote on a Legislative Consent Motion⢠Will Welsh patients have equal access ā or have to travel?
11. Biggest Stealth Tax Rise Ever? ā What Reevesā Budget Means for Wales
54:14||Season 1, Ep. 11This week, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton break down one of the biggest political weeks of the year, including Rachel Reevesā long-trailed Westminster Budget and what it really means for Wales.We analyse:Why the Budget felt like āGroundhog DayāThe lifting of the two-child benefit cap and how it could lift 26,000 Welsh children out of povertyThe hidden impact of tax threshold freezes and the ābiggest stealth tax rise everāWhy Wales only gets limited wiggle room despite new Barnett funding and borrowing powersLabourās messaging ahead of the 2026 Senedd electionThe Senedd vote rejecting the Budget and what it signals for the Welsh Governmentās shaky six-month futurePLUS ā Senedd Sources exclusive:ā”ļø Plaid Cymru HAVE now entered budget talks, despite public coyness. We explain what they want, what they might trade, and the political dangers if the Budget falls.And in the second half of the episode:The sentencing of Nathan GillThe extraordinary details revealed in courtWhat this means for Nigel Farage, Reform UK and the wider Welsh political landscapeWe also head into "Leaflet Corner" as election leaflets begin landing across Wales ā analysing the early campaign strategies of Welsh Labour, the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and Reform.š§ Subscribe for weekly analysis, inside knowledge and exclusive Senedd scoops.š² WhatsApp us your thoughts or voice notes: 0333 404 6507 (start with SENEdd).š§ Email: hello@seneddsources.com
10. Inside Reform UK Wales: Policies, Leadership & the Caerphilly Shock Result
53:09||Season 1, Ep. 10In this weekās episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton sit down with Cai Parry-Jones, Reform UK spokesperson in Wales and Vice Chair of the Anglesey, Bangor & Aberconwy branch.With Reform UK rapidly increasing its vote share and shaking up Welsh politics ā including a huge showing in the Caerphilly by-election ā this conversation cuts through the noise and looks at what the party actually stands for going into the 2026 Senedd election.We ask:ā¢ā Ā ā Does Reform UK have a clear Welsh identity, or is it a British nationalist project?ā¢ā Ā ā What really drove their surge in Caerphilly?ā¢ā Ā ā When will we see a Welsh leader ā and who is making the decision?ā¢ā Ā ā How are candidates being selected?ā¢ā Ā ā How seriously does the party take political abuse and safety concerns?ā¢ā Ā ā Will Nigel Farage be an asset or distraction in Wales?ā¢ā Ā ā What policies can we expect ā including the 20mph limit reversal?ā¢ā Ā ā How will Reform UK address Welsh language decline and devolved public services?Cai gives rare insight into:ā internal policy developmentā candidate vettingā tensions between UK-wide messaging and Welsh-specific issuesā the weight given to social media activismā Reform UK's claims of facing a uniquely intense level of abuseThis episode also dives into:ā the future of political campaigning in Walesā whether Reform UK can maintain momentum without a clear leaderā how the new Senedd electoral system could reshape party fortunesā the partyās ambition to present the most āpro-businessā manifesto since devolutionWhether you support Reform UK, oppose them, or simply want to understand their growing influence, this is a must-listen episode for understanding the next six months in Welsh politics.š± WhatsApp the show with comments or questions: 0333 404 6507 (start your message with "Senedd")š§ Email: hello@seneddsources.comGet tickets to join us at Public Affairs Cymru: https://publicaffairscymru.com/events/
9. Labour Chaos, Reform Scandal & NDAs in Cardiff Bay
47:11||Season 1, Ep. 9Welcome to Senedd Sources ā your inside track on Welsh politics.This week, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton unpack a jam-packed week in Welsh and UK politics.š¢ Can the Green Party win their first ever Senedd seat?With membership tripling and Zack Polanski energising the movement, the Greens are targeting key constituencies like Cardiff and Penarth ā but could a split between the Welsh and English parties be coming?šµ Reformās only Senedd member faces suspensionLaura Anne Jonesā two-week suspension raises deep questions about standards, NDAs, and taxpayer money being used to silence staff. Jo launches a fiery rant on why the Seneddās standards system is ānot fit for purposeā.š“ Labour meltdown in Downing StreetKeir Starmerās team face open revolt as aides brief against senior cabinet ministers ā just months before major Welsh elections. What does this mean for Labourās credibility in Wales, and do they even know thereās an election on?š² Join the conversation:WhatsApp us a voice note: 0333 404 6507 (start your message with āSeneddā)Or email: hello@seneddsources.comš³ļø Subscribe to stay ahead of Welsh politics every week ā analysis, insight, and no spin.š§ Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all major platforms.
8. Rhun Ap Iorwerth
51:04||Season 1, Ep. 8Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth joins Senedd Sources to discuss his partyās stunning by-election win in Caerphilly, what it means for the 2026 Senedd election, and how Plaid plans to challenge both Labourās dominance in Cardiff Bay and the rise of Reform UK. Rhun speaks candidly about populism, independence, cooperation in Welsh politics, and why heās ready to lead Wales as First Minister. In this in-depth interview with Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan, and Craig Lawton, Rhun explains:Why Plaid Cymruās Caerphilly win signals a āfundamental shiftā in Welsh politicsHis view on British vs Welsh nationalism and what sets Plaid apartWhether Labourās disillusionment under Keir Starmer gives Plaid a path to powerHis plans for childcare reform, tackling child poverty, and preparing for governmentThe realistic timeline for Welsh independence ā and why heās ānot putting anything on the back burnerā š§ Subscribe for more from Senedd Sources ā your inside track on Welsh politics, policy and power in Cardiff Bay. š New episodes every week.
7. How Plaid Beat Reform ā and Why Labourās Economic Plan Still Isnāt Landing
56:20||Season 1, Ep. 7In this weekās Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton unpack the Caerphilly by-election fallout, the rise (and stall) of Reform UK in Wales, and the quiet competence of Plaid Cymruās ground game.They also look ahead to Walesā long-delayed Investment Summit, asking whether it will deliver real inward investment or just more political headlines. With First Minister Eluned Morgan under pressure and Rebecca Evans standing down, how stable is Welsh Labourās economic strategy heading into next yearās Senedd elections?From Rachel Reevesā āparty of businessā pivot to the Toriesā identity crisis and the endless debate over āgrowth you can feel in your pocketā, this is a lively, insider-led look at whatās really happening in Welsh politics.š Subscribe for weekly insights on Welsh politics, policy and the Senedd election campaign. š± Send us a WhatsApp voice note with your thoughts: 0333 404 6507 (start your message with Senedd). š§ Listen on Spotify, Apple or watch the full conversation here on YouTube.
5. Wales at a Crossroads: Net Zero, Jobs & Political Gridlock
42:33||Season 1, Ep. 5In this episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton are joined by Cathy Owens (Cavendish Consulting), who shares exclusive new YouGov polling on Welsh attitudes toward energy, renewables, and climate change.They explore:Why 70% of Welsh voters back onshore renewables like wind and solarThe disconnect between voters and political parties on climate policyHow Plaid Cymru, Labour, and the Conservatives are positioning themselves ahead of the 2026 Senedd electionsWhether Wales risks losing investment because of slow grid upgradesThe political dangers of talking about net zero vs. talking about jobs and growthExpect sharp insights on:How cost-of-living pressures are changing views on climate actionThe coming clash over pylons, undergrounding, and rural protest movementsWhy Plaid Cymru faces a āhorseshoe problemā inside its own baseWhat the data says about nuclear power and offshore vs onshore renewablesš Send us your thoughts: WhatsApp: 0333 404 6507 ā start your message with Senedd š§ Email: hello@seneddsources.comš§ Listen on Spotify / Apple / Google ā or watch full episodes on YouTube.
4. Plaid Cymru Conference Fallout & The Battle for Caerphilly
39:48||Season 1, Ep. 4Itās crunch time in Caerphilly. New polling puts Reform UK ahead of Plaid Cymru ā and Welsh Labour facing a nightmare scenario. On this weekās Senedd Sources Podcast, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan, and Craig Lawton break down whatās really happening on the ground, the fallout from Plaid Cymruās party conference, and the latest twists in the Senedd budget negotiations.We cover:š The latest Caerphilly by-election poll ā Reform UK leads Plaid Cymru 42ā38ā” The impact of Nigel Farageās visit and questions over Russian linksšļø Labourās struggles in Welsh Government and locally in Caerphillyš± Plaid Cymruās childcare policy, energy protests, and independence debateš· Budget brinkmanship in Cardiff Bay ā and could Welsh Conservatives cut a deal?šļø Plus: The disastrous TV hustings that turned voters offš Subscribe for more in-depth analysis of Welsh politics, from those whoāve worked inside the Senedd and advised First Ministers. š± WhatsApp your questions and voice notes to 0333 404 6507 (start your message with Senedd). š© Email: hello@seneddsources.com