Share

cover art for Projections Are a Liar Sometimes!

Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball

Projections Are a Liar Sometimes!

Eno, Jed, and DVR discuss a few spring news items including Gerrit Cole's return to game action with his first outing for the spring, plus updates on Seiya Suzuki, José Ramírez, and Zach Neto.


Plus, they host their ever 'Plus-Minus Draft', selecting their favorite hitters primed to exceed their projections during the upcoming season.


Rundown

2:31 Gerrit Cole Makes Spring Debut

5:41 Seiya Suzuki: PCL Strain; Opening Day Status TBD

9:50 Updates: José Ramírez & Zach Neto

10:33 The 2026 Hitter Projections Draft

13:02 DVR Takes Acuña at 1.1; Was That a Mistake?

28:04 Jed’s Case for Wyatt Langford Being Underprojected

31:52 Mike Trout?! In This Economy?

40:15 Banking Heavily on Youth

43:51 Andy Pages & Jed’s Emphasis on Defensive Value

46:02 Eno Targets Evan Carter & Matt McLain

48:11 Surprised that Jed Added Rafael Devers?

49:53 James Wood & Colton Cowser to DVR

53:37 Have We Underrated Colson Montgomery’s Debut?

56:13 Shopping in the Low WAR Projection Bin: Cam Smith

1:04:29 Notable Omissions From This Draft


Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social

Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.social


e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com


Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe


Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels


Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris


With: Jed Lowrie


Editor: Jason Potere

More episodes

View all episodes

  • Starkville | The Life, Times, and Ejections of Bobby Cox

    56:33|
    One of baseball's most beloved managers is gone. Hall of Famer Bobby Cox passed away this week, and Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville celebrate his life with a guest who knew him well — Mark DeRosa, who played for Cox in Atlanta and shares what made him such a special manager. DeRosa also reveals a moment that stuck with him: Cox going out of his way to say he was glad to see him thriving, even after DeRosa had long since moved on to other teams. Then, Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz provides the material for one of the most jaw-dropping Strange But True segments in recent memory.Rundown:2:00 ABS Through the First Quarter of the Season10:12 Mark DeRosa Joins the Show11:45 Remembering Bobby Cox23:30 Al Leiter Pops In29:07 Remembering Bobby Cox (cont’d)33:00 Managing Team USA in WBC39:22 Remembering Bobby Cox (cont’d)42:49 Strange But TrueJayson’s Article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7281002/2026Follow Jayson on Bluesky: @jaysonst.bsky.socialFollow Doug on Bluesky: @dougglanville.bsky.socialE-mail: starkville@theathletic.comStarkville Hotline: (347) 313-8371Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Jayson Stark & Doug GlanvilleWith: Mark DeRosa (and Al Leiter)Producer: Jason Potere
  • Starting Pitcher Rankings: Misiorowski & Schlittler to the Moon!

    01:04:25|
    A fresh batch of starting pitcher rankings has arrived, and there’s plenty to debate. Who made the “Hype 7”? Is Gavin Williams making the leap to ace status? And where does José Soriano land in the mix? Eno and DVR break it all down before turning their attention to the waiver wire, where two intriguing rookies — A.J. Ewing and Henry Bolte — are making their cases as weekend pickups. Plus, no Fantasy Friday would be complete without another edition of “Closer Corner.”Rundown:2:00 Eno's Updated SP Rankings: The 'Hype 7' is on the Move!6:25 Future Drafts: Is There Usually a Group Like This to Target?12:55 Emmet Sheehan's Velo: Wide Fluctuations Start-to-Start17:00 Another Top-20 SP in Pittsburgh? Braxton Ashcraft Joins the Fray20:56 Gavin Williams' Adjustments: Is He Becoming an Ace?30:29 Using Fresh Rankings: Finding Fits on the Trade Front34:18 José Soriano: Top-25 Guy Now, Defensive Limitations?38:58 A.J. Ewing & Henry Bolte: Most Intriguing Waiver-Wire Hitters This Weekend?44:12 JJ Bleday's Breakout: A True Post-Hype Sleeper is Delivering!50:05 Vaughn Grissom's Opportunity: Good Enough to Stick in Anaheim?54:36 Pitching Considerations: Bryce Miller is Back, G-Rod Nearing Return55:54 A Tough Toss-Up: Ben Brown vs. Griffin Jax1:01:44 Closer Corner: Still Waiting on Ryan HelsleyEno's Starting Pitcher Rankings: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7277683/Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisEditor: Jason Potere
  • How Many Pitches Could the Best Pitcher Throw?

    01:02:08|
    Have you ever compared baseball to microtones? Neither had we — until today. The guys dive into the music of Angine de Poitrine to explore just how many pitch types a pitcher could realistically master. Then, Eno, Trevor, and DVR head behind the plate to break down the surprising development of Pirates catcher Henry Davis’ command model.Rundown:1:47 Bryce Miller is Back7:38 Cal Raleigh Placed on the IL8:16 Max Fried Exits with Elbow Soreness11:05 Robby Snelling to the IL13:12 Francisco Alvarez Likely Out Eight Weeks (Knee Surgery)15:05 Getting the Return Right: Coming Back from the IL20:17 Pitching & Microtones?27:00 Covering Everything: Having Pitches for All Situations35:36 Two Splitters? Roki Sasaki’s Attempt to Find More Options40:38 Nothing in the Middle? Empty Space for Cutters & Gyro Sliders44:44 Thinking About Development: Creative Solutions to Pitching Problems?52:00 Henry Davis’ Command ModelFollow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow Trevor on Bluesky: @iamtrevormay.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Trevor MayEditor: Jason Potere
  • Four Intriguing Players for a Round of Trade, Hold, or Extend

    54:53|
    Would you trade, hold, or extend Nick Kurtz right now? CJ Abrams? Ben Rice? The answers might surprise you.Eno, Jed, and DVR break down all three in their favorite new game, "Trade, Hold, or Extend," then shift to two of baseball's hottest prospects: A.J. Ewing, who made a splash in his MLB debut for the Mets on Tuesday, and Henry Bolte, the Athletics outfielder just called up from Triple-A.Rundown:2:02 A.J. Ewing Debuts for the Mets5:45 Henry Bolte Gets the Call9:47 Skipping Rehab Assignments: Christian Yelich Activated From IL17:29 CJ Abrams' Future in D.C.29:49 Is There a Path to an Extension for Ben Rice?37:06 William Contreras' Long-Term Outlook45:42 A Nick Kurtz Extension?Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Jed LowrieEditor: Jason Potere
  • Four Teams We Haven't Discussed Enough

    01:05:22|
    Eno, Britt, and DVR hit the quarter mark of the season with a look at the Blue Jays’ lack of power and speed, questions surrounding the rotation, and concerns about Louis Varland’s heavy workload in the closer role. Later, DVR puts Eno and Britt to the test with his latest trivia challenge before the crew dives into the Pirates, Cardinals, and White Sox.Rundown: 2:00 DVR's Tattoo Promise 2:50 The Jays' Struggling Offense10:48 Jays Continue to Steal Few Bases16:08 Trivia Time!18:30 Pitching in Toronto23:02 Heavy Workload for Louis Varland26:39 The Pirates Are on Course32:32 Likely Mid-Summer Additions in Pittsburgh37:35 Checking In on the Cards43:02 How Far Away Are the Cards’ Impact Arms?50:06 What Happened to Matt Svanson?51:38 The White Sox's Rebuild Looks OK!59:45 Davis Martin is RollingFollow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow Britt on Bluesky: @brittghiroli.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Britt GhiroliEditor: Jason Potere
  • The Dodgers' IL Shuffle Continues & Buster Posey Makes Another Deal

    01:02:37|
    Eno and DVR discuss the recent returns of pitchers Blake Snell and Carlos Rodón, breaking down how the two hard-throwing lefties looked on the mound this weekend. They also preview Mookie Betts’ return to the Dodgers’ lineup Monday and what his presence means for the rest of the offense. Later, the guys analyze the trade that sent Giants catcher Patrick Bailey to the Guardians.Rundown:00:35 Weekend at Eno’s1:45 Blake Snell is Back!4:29 Mookie Betts Returns Monday8:30 Carlos Rodón Also Returned10:33 More Mother’s Day Magic in Milwaukee11:57 Bat Speed Buckets18:30 Do Hitters Change More Slowly than Pitchers?21:15 Ryan Waldschmidt Promoted33:18 Patrick Bailey Sent to Cleveland42:25 Bo Naylor to Triple-A50:04 Tough Starts: Bryce Miller, Tatsuya Imai & Trevor McDonald56:57 Where the Money Went: Zack Gelof 2.0Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisEditor: Jason Potere
  • Starkville | Baseball’s Most Unhittable Pitcher & Terry Francona

    54:02|
    Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville explain why Mason Miller may be the most unhittable pitcher in MLB history before discussing the toughest pitcher Doug ever faced. Later, they’re joined by Terry Francona — Doug’s former manager, Jayson’s old neighbor, and current Reds skipper — to talk about his return to the dugout, memories of managing Doug in Philadelphia, and the joy of watching Elly De La Cruz lead the Reds.Rundown:1:35 Is Strands Inspired by Starkville?3:40 Is Mason Miller Baseball’s Most Unhittable Pitcher?8:01 Doug’s Most Unhittable Pitcher11:10 Reds Manager Terry Francona Joins the Show12:40 Being a Manager in 202619:21 Adjusting to ABS25:00 Managing Elly De La Cruz27:07 Playing 16228:10 The Good Ole Days31:38 Most Memorable Regular Season Game34:00 Health Update35:22 Benches Clearing Brawls36:39 Francona’s Gum Chewing Habit 38:55 Francona’s Most Unhittable Pitcher41:18 Strange But True52:00 Call Us at (347) 313-8371 Is Padres closer Mason Miller the most unhittable pitcher who ever lived?: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7244775/Follow Jayson on Bluesky: @jaysonst.bsky.socialFollow Doug on Bluesky: @dougglanville.bsky.socialE-mail: starkville@theathletic.comSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Jayson Stark & Doug GlanvilleWith: Terry FranconaProducer: Jason Potere
  • Weekend Waiver Preview: Robby Snelling Gets the Call!

    01:00:10|
    Eno and DVR preview top prospect Robby Snelling’s highly anticipated big league debut and discuss expectations for the rookie left-hander. Later, they open the mailbag to answer questions about the closer market, Liam Hicks, and Will Warren. Plus, Ottoneu founder and Senior Hot Dog Correspondent Niv Shah joins the show to break down Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, along with delivering his latest hot dog review — this time, the Minnesota Dog.Rundown:1:16 Marlins Promote Robby Snelling4:23 Pitchers Nearing Returns: Jared Jones, Bryce Miller & Carlos Rodón10:25 Deeper League Considerations: Sean Burke & JT Ginn14:14 Holding Steady: Where Will Noah Schultz Rank?16:57 Good News on Skubal?20:07 Injury Updates: Crochet, Ragans, Glasnow Ryan, Abel, Woodruff24:45 Spencer Jones Gets the Call!29:10 Keeper Consideration — Anthony Eyanson34:11 JJ Bleday Tearing It Up with Reds39:10 Taste of the Majors: The Minnesota Dog!45:54 Closer Corner: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati & Baltimore52:53 Pleasant Surprises: What to Make of Liam Hicks?57:06 Will Warren is Cruising: Is the Strikeout Rate Bound to Fall? Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Niv ShahEditor: Jason Potere
  • Quantifying Deception & The Rays’ Fast Start

    01:01:41|
    Eno, Trevor, and DVR unveil Trevor’s new deception model, digging into how it works, what it’s designed to measure, and the challenges of quantifying deception. They also break down the current leaders in deception among starters and relievers, and reveal where listeners can access the model (Hint: coming soon to Discord!). Later, they bring back How I’d Pitch This Guy with a look at Junior Caminero before shifting to the Rays’ rotation, focusing on Shane McClanahan and Griffin Jax.Rundown:1:15 Quantifying Deception: From 2016 to 20268:39 Current Kings of Deception: Top-Five Starting Pitchers for 20269:30 Current Kings of Deception: Top-Five Relief Pitchers for 202615:10 Looking to the Future: More Precision From Impact of Hitter's Vision?23:15 Deception Model Coming Soon to Discord!23:51 The Rays' 24-12 Start: What's Working Thus Far?26:04 Is the League Pitching the Rays Wrong?36:44 How I'd Pitch This Guy: Junior Caminero42:33 Starkville Sneak Peek44:38 Knocking the Rust Off: Shane McClanahan49:46 Getting Out of Rehab Mode54:37 Expectations for Griffin Jax as a StarterEno's FanGraphs Blog Post: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-attempt-to-quantify-pitcher-deception/Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow Trevor on Bluesky: @iamtrevormay.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Trevor MayEditor: Jason Potere