Share

cover art for Is There a Stat That Shows Us How Much Pitchers Fear Hitters?

Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball

Is There a Stat That Shows Us How Much Pitchers Fear Hitters?

Drew Rasmussen’s incredible run continues. Today, Eno, Jed, and DVR dig into the factors behind the Rays right-hander owning the best ERA in baseball since 2021 among qualified starters not named Shohei Ohtani. Then, they discuss whether Zone% can reveal which hitters pitchers fear the most. Later, the guys examine the recent regressions of Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman before wrapping up with a daunting round of Name! That! Dude!

Rundown:

0:50 Drew Rasmussen’s Run

3:48 Eno at World Cup

6:33 Cooper Pratt’s Debut

8:47 Sal Stewart vs. Bryce Eldridge

12:20 Adjustment Phases: The League Will Find Flaws, Eventually

18:11 Leaning on Strengths: Use Them Until They Stop Working!

26:04 Zone Rates for Feared Hitters

32:30 Middle-Middle Fastballs: Another Potential Indicator?

38:04 Rafael Devers’ Slide

40:20 Alex Bregman: Declining Gracefully Still Messes with Us

42:18 Mookie Betts: Plate Discipline Holding Steady

45:36 Vision Driving Decline

50:08 Name! That! Dude!

Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.social

Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social

e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com

Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe

Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels

Host: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris

With: Jed Lowrie

Editor: Jason Potere

More episodes

View all episodes

  • Starting Pitcher Rankings: Tough Calls in June

    01:07:31|
    Who are the toughest starting pitchers to rank right now? Eno and DVR dig into a group of arms that defy easy placement, including Jared Jones, Chase Burns, JT Ginn, Trey Yesavage, and more, breaking down the factors that make each of them such difficult evaluations. Then, they're joined by Chris Gill of MLB The Show to discuss how the iconic franchise has evolved over the past two decades and the challenge of creating a baseball game that mirrors the real thing.Rundown:1:04 Jared Jones’ Slow Start7:14 Chase Burns’ Dominance17:34 Logan Gilbert’s Slider & Splitter Blurring Together19:25 Dustin May’s ROS Outlook26:01 Is the Phillies’ Lineup Still ‘Good’?30:22 Walbert Ureña Quietly Pitching Well in Anaheim34:00 JT Ginn Deals Again38:28 Trey Yesavage’s Lack of Command42:00 20 Years of MLB The ShowFollow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHost: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisEditor: Jason PotereWith: Chris Gill
  • The Injury Roller Coaster Speeds Up

    01:06:25|
    What a weekend across baseball. A reigning Cy Young winner returned to the mound, runs piled up in Kansas City and Las Vegas, and two stars suffered an all-too-familiar injury to a notorious hand bone. Eno and DVR break down Tarik Skubal’s uneven return, the hamate fractures suffered by José Ramírez and Vinnie Pasquantino, and Luis Lara’s extension with the Brewers. Plus, they take a closer look at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s continued struggles and examine where fantasy managers spent their money over the weekend.Rundown:3:20 Tarik Skubal's Return9:17 José Ramírez Lands on IL11:59 Vinnie Pasquantino to the IL17:22 A Weird Series in KC20:31 Hunter Brown is Back!24:33 A ‘Maddux’ From The Miz31:42 Cooper Pratt Promoted41:45 Luis Lara’s Extension46:14 Ryan Waldschmidt Sent to Reno50:31 Vlad Jr. Check-In54:42 Where the Money WentFollow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialE-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHost: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisEditor: Jason Potere
  • Starkville | Catching Up with J.T. Realmuto

    52:07|
    J.T. Realmuto returns to Starkville this week, joining Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville to talk about everything from his last appearance on the show (which happened on a golf course) to catching Cristopher Sánchez, facing Jacob Misiorowski, and the unforgettable time Freddie Freeman kicked dirt on him.Plus, Jayson and Doug weigh in on Manny Machado's criticism of analytics and what it says about the modern game, and Jo Adell makes another appearance in Strange But True — though this chapter of the story isn't nearly as triumphant as the last one.Rundown:2:50 Manny Machado Dislikes Analytics13:55 J.T. Realmuto Joins the Show14:48 Golfing with Kyle Schwarber16:58 From Thomson to Mattingly21:30 Catching Cristopher Sánchez25:11 Sánchez vs. Misiorowski29:12 Adjusting to ABS32:38 Being a Catcher in 202637:41 2026 Team Expectations41:21 Realmuto & Freeman’s Dust-Up43:10 Strange But True: Jo AdellFollow Jayson on Bluesky: @jaysonst.bsky.socialFollow Doug on Bluesky: @dougglanville.bsky.socialE-mail: starkville@theathletic.comStarkville Hotline: (347) 313-8371Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Jayson Stark & Doug GlanvilleWith: J.T. RealmutoProducer: Jason Potere
  • Draft-Day Regrets, Prospect Talk & Waiver Wire Prep

    01:18:30|
    It’s Fantasy Friday, and with Eno out today, DVR enlists a pair of special guests. First, James Anderson of RotoWire joins the show to discuss the draft picks he’s already regretting, along with prospects generating plenty of buzz, including Braden Montgomery, Cole Carrigg, and Jordan Lawlar.Later, Ottoneu founder and Senior Hot Dog Correspondent Niv Shah stops by to examine Aaron Judge’s long-term outlook as he turns 35 next April before sharing reviews from his latest ballpark hot dog tour through Detroit and Miami.Rundown:0:37 James Anderson Joins the Show1:55 Draft-Day Regrets: Price Enforcing & the Cal Raleigh Premium6:25 Prospect Profiles: How Has Increased Data Altered Your Targets?11:39 Chasing Unicorns: Could Aaron Judge’s Success Lead Us Astray?14:38 Accounting for the Ball: How Is James Dealing with Lively Minor-League Baseball?20:46 2026 Prospects to Come: Are We Facing a Drought Until Mid-August?23:45 Braden Montgomery27:26 Cole Carrigg30:07 Jordan Lawlar33:58 Jac Caligianone is Heating Up!37:12 The Big Picture: Are We Always Going to Be Limited by Waiver-Wire Pitching?41:19 Making Draft-Day Adjustments to Avoid In-Season Shortages43:36 Hagen Smith May Debut This Weekend48:17 Other SPs to Consider52:31 Closer Carousel: Low Bids Could Pay Off on Elvis Alvarado54:46 Niv Shah Joins the Show55:35 Aaron Judge in Ottoneu & Other Keeper/Dynasty Leagues1:07:13 Detroit Dog Reviews: The Tiger Tail & A Polish Sausage1:10:46 Taste of the Majors: Behold, The ‘Miami Dog’!Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHost: Derek VanRiperWith: James Anderson and Niv ShahEditor: Jason Potere
  • Fear the Regression Monster, or Feed the Beast?

    01:08:21|
    After news of a setback for Garrett Crochet’s injured lat, DVR and Stephen revisit the 2024 blockbuster that sent the ace to Boston and brought four prospects back to Chicago — all of whom have now reached the majors with the White Sox. Then, they sort through a group of potential regression candidates, including Dillon Dingler, James Wood, Jordan Walker, Brandon Lowe, José Soriano, Gavin Williams, Max Meyer, and Bryce Elder, to determine who’s most likely to cool off in the months ahead.Rundown:3:35 Garrett Crochet’s Injury Setback8:37 The White Sox Did Well in Crochet Trade11:22 Reid Detmers as a Trade Candidate?18:32 Oneil Cruz Out with Broken Hand28:20 Fear the Regression Monster? Or Feed the Beast?28:57 Dillon Dingler: Fully Buying the 2026 Power Breakout?32:47 James Wood: Will He Avoid Second-Half Slide?38:30 Jordan Walker Homers Again: Is a 30-20 Season On Tap?42:17 Brandon Lowe: Resurgence Hinges on Continued Good Health?46:08 José Soriano: Has the Regression Monster Already Arrived?51:09 Gavin Williams: A Capital ‘A’ Ace Now?54:42 Max Meyer: Will He Hold Up Through Career-High Workload?59:30 Bryce Elder: Better than ROS Projections, Right?Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHost: Derek VanRiperWith: Stephen NesbittEditor: Jason Potere
  • Breaking Down Five Young Hitters & Their Future Outlooks

    01:00:10|
    Baseball Savant has given fans a new toy to play with. Today, DVR and Jed dig into the site's new swing timing and miss distance leaderboards and what they can reveal about hitter performance. Then, they break down the struggles of several young hitters, including Lawrence Butler, Evan Carter, Coby Mayo, Masyn Winn, and Marcelo Mayer. Later, they open the mailbag and tackle one of baseball’s most pressing questions: Is Brandon Marsh good?Rundown:0:45 New Toys at Baseball Savant!12:54 Lawrence Butler: Can He Press Reset in 2026, or Beyond?23:42 Evan Carter: Homers & Steals, Without a Supporting Slash Line31:03 Coby Mayo: A Pull-Heavy Approach Gone Too Far?40:45 Masyn Winn: Will the Bat Catch Up to His Elite Glove?46:45 Marcelo Mayer: Can He Live Up to His Potential?50:24 Are PCA’s Adjustments Paying Off?55:20 Is Brandon Marsh Good?Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHost: Derek VanRiperWith: Jed LowrieEditor: Jason Potere
  • Surprising Teams & The Cubs’ Unusual Path to the Middle

    01:01:01|
    Is Manny Machado really mad about analytics, or is a tough season at the plate fueling the frustration? Today, Eno, Britt, and DVR unpack Machado’s comments and discuss whether advanced stats can help him break out of his prolonged slump.Then, they look at three of baseball’s biggest surprises this season: the White Sox, Cardinals, and Nationals. Are these teams legitimate contenders, or should they sell at the deadline?Later, Eno and DVR are joined by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic to discuss the Cubs’ disappointing season, what’s gone wrong, and whether there’s still a path back into the playoff race.Rundown:0:36 Brewers-A’s Goes PCL: Outdoor Baseball in Vegas in June, Yikes!7:48 Manny Machado’s Frustration: Was Analytics Rant Just Venting?15:20 It’s About Communication: Always Has Been, Always Will Be22:10 Longer Road Trips? Would Teams Benefit From Less Back-and-Forth?26:13 Should They Be Buyers? Watching White Sox, Cards & Nats Closely41:36 Braden Montgomery Gets the Call43:58 Patrick Mooney Joins the Show44:18 An Unusual Start: Making Sense of Cubs’ Streaky Path to 34-2246:32 Sitting in Discomfort: Believing in the Core to Click Despite Early Struggles49:25 Trade Deadline Plan: How Much Rides on Path to a Wild-Card Round Bye?52:15 Pitching Development: Why Are the Cubs Short on Arms?56:02 A Pleasant Surprise: Ben Brown is Cruising in the Rotation57:52 PCA Back to MVP Form? What Has Changed in His Approach?Follow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow Britt on Bluesky: @brittghiroli.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Britt Ghiroli
  • Starting Pitcher Stock Watch

    01:09:25|
    More Josh Naylor theatrics and another step forward for Tarik Skubal. Today, Eno and DVR break down the latest chapter in the Josh Naylor-Detroit Tigers saga after the Mariners first baseman tossed his sliding mitt toward Tigers catcher Dillon Dingler during a play at the plate. They also discuss Skubal’s latest rehab start, the recent dominance of Bryce Miller and Michael Soroka, and wrap up the show with a look at where the money went in fantasy leagues over the weekend.Rundown:1:43 Tarik Skubal Fires Five Scoreless Frames3:24 Josh Naylor vs. Detroit: Another Interesting Chapter7:50 Bryce Miller Shoves15:36 League Shamed! Are We Making Our Leagues Too Easy?21:15 Reid Detmers’ Step Forward: Buying Better Ratios Ahead?22:05 Bryce Miller Never Underwent Surgery23:52 Michael Soroka is Dealing Again30:41 DVR Is Intrigued by Edward Cabrera33:47 Spencer Strider Still Adjusting to Wider Mix, Lesser Stuff?38:13 Emmet Sheehan’s Odyssey Continues42:49 Will Relievers Get Dinged More By Smaller Zone?49:52 Where the Money Went: Nootbar, The Martian & Cowser Lead the WayFollow DVR on Bluesky: @DVR.bsky.socialFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.sociale-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.comJoin our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisEditor: Jason Potere