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House prices strike back, Irish election date, and a UK Labour supermajority is all but assured
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Daft.ie released their Quarterly House Prices report for Q2 of 2024, showing housing prices nationally rising again! With housing inflation on the radar, we look at house prices in the context of loans and prices – how do ratios compare with the world? Ireland is on an election footing, and we speculate (or place a bet like in the UK!) when we are going to the polls – pre- or post-budget? It’s less than ten days until polling in the UK; we look at how certain a Labour supermajority is and whether Reform UK will make an impact. And Taylor Swift is in town, and she may delay your expected interest rate cut!
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Election 2024 Review Special – Winners and Losers
40:25Hugh O’Connell is Political Editor for The Sunday Times in Ireland. Having spent more than a decade reporting and writing on politics in Ireland, we discuss with Hugh the fallout from the 2024 local and European elections. With a mixed bag of results, did the government win? Did the opposition lose? Or a bit of both? What made things go completely wrong for Sinn Fein, is Mary Lou a busted flush? With an increase in online “TikTok” campaigning and celebrity candidates, will politics change for better or worse? The far-right made gains, should we be worried? And are we only weeks away from a general election?
Decision Time – your guide to the Irish, EU and UK elections (and ECB inflation!)
39:04It’s D-Day (literally) and tomorrow and over the weekend Ireland and Europe decides in crucial elections. We look at how the elections will logistically unfold. With underwhelming performance by Sinn Fein in the polls and an uptick for Fine Gael, will there be sweeping change? We look at how social media affects campaigning. Nigel Farage returns and Reform UK surges in the polls, are the Conservatives doomed? Interest rates in Europe are on the decline with the ECB’s first cut since 2019, but inflation is stubbornly high. Is higher inflation going to stick around? And David explains why doves and hawks are important and Dale is going to Italy.
National Service - the best the Tories can offer young people? Ireland’s far-right fizzle. Stock markets participation and ways for more people to partake in wealth appreciation.
38:43As the UK general election campaign unfolds, national service is the big Tory policy offering to the young electorate. The UK Labour Party picks up significant business support. We look at how this compared to Sinn Féin in Ireland, which has traditionally lacked such support. Ireland’s far-right is a real movement, but the local elections might reveal it to be a movement absent from the doorsteps. We discuss this and the European elections which show increased support for right-of-government candidates. Finally, how can we all participate in stock markets? Ireland has a low participation rate relative to other countries (especially the US). Even in the US, stock ownership is tilted towards the top 1%.
Sunak plunges the UK into an election betting on low inflation, is it enough? The Housing Commission calls for a radical reset on policy, but what should the target be? Ireland’s population growth has surged, what does that mean for immigration?
37:29With inflation “beaten”, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called a general election for 4th of July (Independence Day!). We look at the numbers and examine what are the indicators that may spell trouble for his gamble. The Housing Commission has said the Government’s housing policy needs a “radical” reset; we examine what the ideal housing target is. Ireland is world leading in population growth for 2023, we look to history for past instances and ask what considerations are needed for policy going forward.
Mortgage War heats up for lower interest rates, but will house prices increase further? OpenAI and Google release the next generation of AI products. Are most workers destined for the scrap heap, and what about our dating lives?
37:48PTSB announces a large cut in mortgage interest rates and more could be ahead. We compare the Irish and UK markets and explore if this (unfortunately!) will lead to house prices increasing again.It’s been a busy week in Silicon Valley with the next generation of artificial intelligence products being released, we explore the impact AI might have on jobs and the economy, and will it be a net positive or negative? We also look at how it might affect how we date one another and if our virtual assistants can find the perfect match.Elon Musk cares about birth rates, why should we? Good news on Dublin rents but are rent controls causing trouble? And is Labour truly certain to win the UK election, or is a hung parliament ahead?
41:24With Elon Musk sounding the alarm on the birth rate crisis that affected the Roman Empire and now our generation, we examine the causes and possible solutions and if history is doomed to repeat itself. Good news might finally be on the horizon for the Dublin rental market and we examine the increase in housing stock while also looking at the effect of rent controls on the housing market and their unintended consequences. We also review the recent UK local and mayoral elections and discuss if Labour’s fait accompli general election win may be just a little bit premature?Housing, hate and the pursuit of happiness! Are dual mortgages needed to buy a home? What will happen with the latest UK-Ireland immigration spat over Rwanda? Is the rise of hate in the country about to boil over?
38:42Do you need to have a partner or significant other to buy a home? We examine the rise of dual income mortgages and has there been correlation or causation to higher house prices in Ireland and across the world. With asylum seekers reportedly heading to Ireland en masse because of the UK’s ‘Rwanda Bill’, which has earmarked the country as safe for deportation, we look at where does the spat go from here – is it a bun right or something much bigger? And finally with the abuse of politicians ever increasing (including the former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar this week), we examine where our political system goes from here and will anyone young want to get involved in politics anymore.Referendum Rewind - From Family definitions to asylum trends. Is corporate welfare here to stay? Can our politicians wake up to our generation's needs? And the Gen Zs are richer (but are having a lot less fun).
42:04What did the government know before proposing to widen the definition of the family at the March referendums? We look ahead to what asylum applications might do in the coming quarters, and how it feeds into politics. As Paschal Donohoe takes to Instagram to share the latest business grant, we discuss if corporate welfare is the new norm in the Irish economy. We respond to a listener who asks if politicians have woken up yet to Ireland’s rising population and the need for the infrastructure to match it. Finally, we discuss an Economist article on Gen-Z and their economic and social prospects.