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NAB Morning Call
Weekend Edition: Japan's High Flying Trapeze Act
Season 10, Ep. 127
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Friday 12th June 2026
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Japan finds itself performing a high-stakes economic balancing act as the nation navigates its most aggressive structural pivot in decades. In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie welcomes Tokyo-based independent macro strategist Tetsuo "Harry" Ishihara to unpack how Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration is fiercely driving growth via an interventionist, multi-year fiscal strategy—employing heavy gas subsidies and targeted funding across 17 growth sectors to absorb the massive shock of the Middle East energy crisis. Yet, this state-sponsored growth push directly collides with the Bank of Japan's urgent agenda. With the yen weakening back past the precarious 160-per-dollar mark, the central bank is looking clean through artificial headline numbers to an "ex-institutional" inflation metric that is creeping toward 3%. Can the government maintain its growth-at-all-costs mandate while the BOJ prepares to bite the bullet with a historic interest rate hike to 1% next week to defend the currency and tame import costs? Tune in to discover how Tokyo plans to pull off this delicate macroeconomic manoeuvre without bringing the entire apparatus crashing down.
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216. Weekend edition: Living beyond the goats cheese curtain
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215. PMIs push bond yields higher, AUD a victim
17:33||Season 10, Ep. 215Thursday 24th September 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar and global bond yields have risen sharply. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a bit part of this was stronger than expected PMIs, particularly for the US. It shows demand isn’t falling, whilst oil supplies remain a concern. So much of a concern that the US is limiting diesel exports to shore-up its domestic supplies. The US is attempting to bring down longer dated yields with a $6 billion buyback today. Phil asks, if it didn’t work last time, what will be different now? Australian labour market data is out later today, but the path for the RBA already seems to be set. And President Xi sets foot in the US today; an extension to the moratorium on tariffs is the best that can be hoped for.214. Trump talks oil down
13:40||Season 10, Ep. 214Wednesday 23rd September 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is now trading below $100 after President Trump says talk have gone well with Iran during the UN General Assembly in New York, with more talks scheduled I’n the near future’. NAB’s Ken Crompton says news of the east-west Saudi pipeline reopening has also helped. Markets have ignored the more extreme language of ‘annihilating’ the Republic if talks don’t go well. And what of Michelle Bullock’s fireside chat? ‘Well, it’s inflation that’s on fire,’ says Ken on today’s podcast. Meanwhile, the focus today will be on the UN General Assembly and the PMIs for Europe and the US.213. Momentarily below 100
12:32||Season 10, Ep. 213Tuesday 22nd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil ticked below $99 momentarily overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says reports of more traffic through the Strait have helped, along with a comment from the US president that he wlll ‘probably’ talk with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN Assembly this week/ But oil doesn’t want to stay below 100. Falling oil prices have helped bring down European bond yields. In a quiet session data wise there’s been much focus on comments from Chicago Fed chair Austan Goolsbee who suggested that growth might take a hit in the fight to control inflation. Expect Michelle Bullockto deliver similar messaging today in her fireside chat at the CEDA event at the Fullerton hotel in Sydney this lunchtime.212. Markets not convinced by BoJ hike
15:32||Season 10, Ep. 212Monday 21st September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEven though the Bank of Japan lifted rates, as widely anticipated, the Yen lost ground on Friday. NAB’s Sally Auld says the 7-2 vote split was responsible for the caution, particularly as the two dissenters were recent government appointees. There’s also speculation of currency intervention, although Sally questions the logic of that right now. Instability in European politics has seen swift movement in bond yields. Over the weekend the Greenland deal and Ukraine’s largest attack on Moscow so far have been the major Europe-centric headlines. There’s also discussion of Friday’s senate hearing where Michelle Bullock announced they have stepped off the narrow path balancing inflation and jobs. She made it clear, inflation is the main concern right now.
211. Weekend Edition: Red, Blue, or Deadlock? Michael Townsend on implications of the US midterms
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16:00||Season 10, Ep. 210Friday 18th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have shrugged off their early response to the hawkish press conference from Kevin Warsh yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the unwound started soon after the initial response, with bond yields falling and shares recovering. Both have been helped by a further reduction in oil prices, on hopes of resumed Saudi supply through their east-west pipeline. Ken and Phil also talk about the Bank of England yesterday and the assumption that the Bank of Japan will lift rates today. But what if they don’t?209. Fed all in agreement on hike, more to come
15:31||Season 10, Ep. 209Thursday 17th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA unanimous decision from the Fed to lift rates and, a s NAB’s Ray Attrilll explains, at least one more rate hike seems likely this year. The market response was fairly muted initially after the short statement talked about how the resilience in the economy was adding to the supply-side inflation worries, but it was Kevin Warsh’s press conference that drew the biggest response. So what did he say? Meanwhile the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold despite rising inflation numbers yesterday. How long can they hod that stance? It’s a similar question for the RBNZ, particularly if there is clear growth in today’s GDP numbers.208. Higher and Higher
14:30||Season 10, Ep. 208Wednesday16th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields are still at multi-year highs, driven by inflation concerns, in turn driven by oil prices, which are still rising, alongside expectations for rate hikes from central banks. NAB’s Skye Masters says markets have almost fully priced in a rate hike from the Fed tomorrow morning (our time) but there will be interest in the dots plot (whilst it’s still a thing) to determine future moves. Phil and Skye also look at the rise in Japanese Government Bonds Yields. As Phil points out, the last time they were this high nobody had heard of the Spice Girls.