NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 23rdd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is now trading below $100 after President Trump says talk have gone well with Iran during the UN General Assembly in New York, with more talks scheduled I’n the near future’. NAB’s Ken Crompton says news of the east-west Saudi pipeline reopening has also helped. Markets have ignored the more extreme language of ‘annihilating’ the Republic if talks don’t go well. And what of Michelle Bullock’s fireside chat? ‘Well, it’s inflation that’s on fire,’ says Ken on today’s podcast. Meanwhile, the focus today will be on the UN General Assembly and the PMIs for Europe and the US.

Tuesday 22nd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil ticked below $99 momentarily overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says reports of more traffic through the Strait have helped, along with a comment from the US president that he wlll ‘probably’ talk with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN Assembly this week/ But oil doesn’t want to stay below 100. Falling oil prices have helped bring down European bond yields. In a quiet session data wise there’s been much focus on comments from Chicago Fed chair Austan Goolsbee who suggested that growth might take a hit in the fight to control inflation. Expect Michelle Bullockto deliver similar messaging today in her fireside chat at the CEDA event at the Fullerton hotel in Sydney this lunchtime.

Monday 21st September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEven though the Bank of Japan lifted rates, as widely anticipated, the Yen lost ground on Friday. NAB’s Sally Auld says the 7-2 vote split was responsible for the caution, particularly as the two dissenters were recent government appointees. There’s also speculation of currency intervention, although Sally questions the logic of that right now. Instability in European politics has seen swift movement in bond yields. Over the weekend the Greenland deal and Ukraine’s largest attack on Moscow so far have been the major Europe-centric headlines. There’s also discussion of Friday’s senate hearing where Michelle Bullock announced they have stepped off the narrow path balancing inflation and jobs. She made it clear, inflation is the main concern right now.

Friday 18th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.With the US midterm elections looming and the threat of Republican losses hanging over Capitol Hill, how much should investors actually care about a potential shift in congressional power? This weekend on the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab and host of the Washington Wise podcast, to break down the realistic market fallout of an impending balance-of-power shakeup. Michael explains why history points to Democrats likely flipping the House while the Senate hangs on a knife-edge, but cautions against overestimating the political noise: historically, Wall Street doesn't care who wins—it simply rallies once the uncertainty is over and gridlock prevents policy overreach. With stubborn inflation, Middle East supply shocks keeping gas prices high, Fed rate hikes, and corporate debt from the AI boom dominating the landscape, does the battle for Capitol Hill even matter to the bottom line, or has the market already learned to shrug off Washington's daily drama?

Friday 18th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have shrugged off their early response to the hawkish press conference from Kevin Warsh yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the unwound started soon after the initial response, with bond yields falling and shares recovering. Both have been helped by a further reduction in oil prices, on hopes of resumed Saudi supply through their east-west pipeline. Ken and Phil also talk about the Bank of England yesterday and the assumption that the Bank of Japan will lift rates today. But what if they don’t?

Thursday 17th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA unanimous decision from the Fed to lift rates and, a s NAB’s Ray Attrilll explains, at least  one more rate hike seems likely this year. The market response was fairly muted initially after the short statement talked about how the resilience in the economy was adding to the supply-side inflation worries, but it was Kevin Warsh’s press conference that drew the biggest response. So what did he say? Meanwhile the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold despite rising inflation numbers yesterday. How long can they hod that stance? It’s a similar question for the RBNZ, particularly if there is clear growth in today’s GDP numbers. 

Wednesday16th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields are still at multi-year highs, driven by inflation concerns, in turn driven by oil prices, which are still rising, alongside expectations for rate hikes from central banks. NAB’s Skye Masters says markets have almost fully priced in a rate hike from the Fed tomorrow morning (our time) but there will be interest in the dots plot (whilst it’s still a thing) to determine future moves. Phil and Skye also look at the rise in Japanese Government Bonds Yields. As Phil points out, the last time they were this high nobody had heard of the Spice Girls.

Tuesday 15th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRising bond yields, rising oil prices, bond yields higher. Today is a repetition of yesterday as the same pressures drive markets - the Middle East, AI growth concerns, inflation fears and central bank expectations. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss market reactions and where she thinks expectations might be a little over-egged. Why, for example, asks Phil, is the market expecting hikes from the Bank of Canada this week when yesterday’s data shows inflation seems to be more under control there than in most places? Today’s UK jobs data precedes a Bank of England rate announcement on Thursday.

Monday 14th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s curious that the CEO of a major AI platform argues that AI development should be slowed down in case it causes serious problems, when that same company has its sights set on a share market listing. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril makes that point on today’s podcast with Phil, as they also examine the impact of Friday’s higher than expected inflation read from the US. And the rising uncertainty for middle east oil supplies. And should we take Canada seriously when they talk about becoming an associate member of the EU or is it just talk to upset the US? Phil suggests if they really want to upset the US they should join the Euro!