NAB Morning Call

Friday 4th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It’s an uncertain world, perhaps more than ever before. Brad Carr is NAB’s Executive for Geopolitical Risk and he joins Phil to discuss the five themes that concern him. That includes the ongoing war in the Middle East and the increasing sophistication of cybercrime. The third issue is the new trade order, where global supply changes are being replaced by self-reliance and self-interest. We are also about to face the Super El Niño, impacting the Australian agricultural sector which is already struggling with higher fertiliser costs. Finally, Brad suggests increasing assertiveness from China presents a threat. There are other concerns too, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifts in European politics and the multifaceted risks of AI. Brad acknowledges he is often portrayed as the doomsayer at NAB, but he said the positive counter is that Australia is protected from the worst aspects of much of this, by nature of our geography, geology and political structure. And Brad outlines three areas of focus we should adopt to ensure we benefit from the uncertainty, not get dragged down by it.

Friday 4th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere might not need to be a rate hike from the Fed. That’s been the takeout from a Reuters interview overnight with the bank's Christopher Waller, who suggested there are signs of disinflation which might mean there’s less need for a policy adjustment. There was a swift response in bond markets and a weakening US dollar. There’s also been a substantial rise in the Yen. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, why? Waller’s comments make next week’s CPI figures more significant than ever and Rodrigo suggests the number to look for. Meanwhile, non-farm payrolls tonight will also be influential, with some signs that the jobs market is weakening.

Thursday 3rd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUnease in the Gulf continues to push oil prices higher today and fears of persistent inflation mean bond yields continue to rise in Europe. expectations for rate hikes, eve n as they moderate a little in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phi to talk through a mixed session, influenced by a hawkish Bank of Canada, a dovish RBNZ and words from the fed’s John Williams suggesting inflationary pressures in the US might be easing. Meanwhile yesterday’s stronger than expected GDP numbers for Australia reinforce NAB’s view that the RBA will hike later this month.  

Wednesday 2nd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices have risen sharply with further attacks from both sides in the Gulf. That’s pushed bond yields higher in a world that is struggling to contain inflation. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about the issue of rising yields which, in Japan have hit a 30 year high. New UK PM Andy Burnham gave his first speech to parliament, and yields there have risen 16bp, which Ray describes as another example of bond vigilantes at work. They also look ahead to today’s Australian GDP numbers, which are unlikely to change NAB’s view that the RBA will lift rates at their next meeting. Meanwhile the RBNZ is expected to lift rates today, with the Bank of Canada holding back for now.

Tuesday 1st September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMonth end rebalancing has been complicated by Scott Bessent talking up the case for successive rate rises by the Bank of Japan, to help boost the Yen, whilst attacks from both sides in the Gulf has reaffirmed that the war is not over and oil prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through all this, plus the continued weakness in the Chinese economy, and the latest data to feed into tomorrow’s Australian GDP numbers. 

Monday 31st August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCould Kevin Warsh be more hawkish than Jerome Powell was? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks to Phil about the Fed chair’s speech at Jackson Hole, which now has markets pricing a greater chance than not of a rate hike at the next meeting. They also discuss President Trump’s plan for a US government majority stake in a massive new Venezuelan oil company. Will it happen? There’s little evidence so far of Operation Economic Outcast. There’s a busy week ahead for data, including European inflation today, Australian GDP mid-week, two central banks and US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Friday 28th August 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil speaks with Edward Sterck, Director of Research at the World Platinum Investment Council, to explore whether platinum is emerging as a higher-torque alternative to gold in the precious metals complex. Sterck explains how sustained market deficits—driven by severe geological supply constraints and deep-level underground mining limitations—initially catalyzed platinum's price rally before broader macro trends like US dollar debasement and geopolitical tensions began driving its movements alongside gold and silver. The conversation highlights platinum’s unique position, contrasting gold's monetary status with platinum's vital industrial demand in green hydrogen technologies, emissions reduction, and expanding applications in AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing. With global mine supply heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia and facing structural headwinds that prevent quick production scalings, he highlights why platinum offers higher upside leverage (a 1.3 beta to gold) and why supply deficits are projected to persist well into the next decade.

Friday 28th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB has made the call that they expect the RBA to lift rates in September. Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a hike. Expectations rose after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through NAB’s reasoning, as well as yesterday’s Capex numbers and upside surprise in household spending. They also discuss the rise in equities following yesterday’s NVIDIA earnings, oil rising against tensions in the Gulf and Ukraine, and rising hawkishness from the Fed alongside the Jackson Hole Symposium, ahead of Kevin Warsh speaking tonight. And a cause for celebration tomorrow!

Thursday 27th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWherever you look inflation is not coming down as quickly as hoped or expected. NAB’s Sally Auld identifies why yesterday’s Australian CPI numbers were such a surprise, and why it’s heightened expectations for a rate hike. That’s pushed front end yields higher, which has boosted the Aussie dollar, even against a rising US dollar. The RBA may not be alone. US Core PCE numbers showed inflation is persistent there too, and the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel was sounding particularly hawkish as well yesterday. Soon, NVIDIA earnings are out, the bellwether stock for AI. Their shares are down ahead of the close.