NAB Morning Call

Thursday 22nd October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB's Taylor Nugent discuss how market sentiment around AI is rebounding following strong Q3 earnings from SpaceX, even as local infrastructure bottlenecks loom large—highlighted by NextDC's 42% stock plunge following delays to its Melbourne data centre rollout. Domestically, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that the inflation backdrop has "materially worsened" relative to August projections, pushing market pricing for a November rate hike to nearly 50%, while NAB's monthly spend tracking showed resilient consumer spending driven primarily by non-mortgage holders. Globally, French 10-year bond yields climbed past 5% for the first time since 2002 as fiscal debate drags on, UK inflation printed slightly higher than expected at 3.5%, and oil prices remained elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent.

Wednesday 21st October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Skye Masters joins Phil to break down a highly volatile session where investors remain caught between geopolitical oil shocks and European political instability. Crude oil touched a five-month high near $112 a barrel before pulling back to hover around $108 for Brent. In Europe, widening political and fiscal unrest in France drove French 10-year government bond (OAT) yields higher and widened the OAT-Bund spread past 150 basis points, though markets showed little signs of broader European contagion. On Wall Street, tech stocks staged a recovery ahead of major earnings releases from Meta and SpaceX, while US pending home sales plunged 12.6% year-over-year under the weight of elevated mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar briefly touched 70 US cents.

Monday 19th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to navigate a session defined by rising global bond yields, with US 10-year Treasuries up 7 basis points to 5.15% and French 10-year yields jumping 13 basis points amid worsening social unrest and local curfew proposals. US equities pulled off a tech-led rebound ahead of key corporate earnings. Oil prices edged higher but found strong technical resistance near $110 a barrel for Brent, balancing regional escalation—such as Houthi strikes targeting Saudi transit hubs—against reports that Middle Eastern crude export flows remain near 80% of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rallied half a percent toward the 70 US cent mark on broader currency strength, though domestic monetary tightening expectations and economic slowing continue to cap a broader breakout.

Monday 19th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this morning’s volatile backdrop for global financial markets, driven by tech sentiment, geopolitical pivots, and domestic unrest. Equity markets ended the week under pressure, led by a 2.1% drop in the Nasdaq on Friday as investors focused on the escalating debt and borrowing costs associated with the massive AI data center build-out, with firms like CoreWeave at the center of credit stress. Geopolitical uncertainty flared after President Trump moved to lift select sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil and gas, prompting Ukraine to step up retaliatory drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a major attack on the St. Petersburg oil terminal. Meanwhile, market sentiment across Europe is being tested by widespread student and public-sector protests in France over severe budget cuts and austerity proposals, threatening broader sovereign debt spreads. Looking ahead, investors face a busy week of Q3 earnings reports, flash PMIs, and critical Chinese GDP and activity data.

Friday 16th October 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil speaks with Tom Jensen, Head of International Freight & Logistics at the Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA), to unpack the relentless disruptions hitting global sea freight. From post-COVID supply chain adjustments and soaring landside fees to the Red Sea crisis and escalating Middle East tensions, the conversation explores how foreign shipping lines are passing on heavy conflict surcharges and longer transit costs to Australian importers and exporters. Jensen details the impact of global carrier consolidation, vertical integration into landside terminals, and the structural imbalance between 40-foot import containers and 20-foot/reefer export demand. He also sheds light on Australia's port efficiency challenges, landside empty container park fees, Part X competition law exemptions, and the Federal Government's trial of a strategic fleet to safeguard national supply chains.

Friday 16th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil after a turbulent 24 hours across global and domestic markets. Investors pulled capital out of the tech sector amid rising concerns over AI-related corporate debt and capital spending, driving a safe-haven rally into US Treasuries that pushed 10-year yields down, well below the post-CPI highs. On the domestic front, the Australian dollar dropped sharply below 69.2 US cents after September employment data showed a net fall of 39,000 jobs and an unemployment rate edging up to 4.7%. Meanwhile, US producer price inflation surprised to the upside with a 1.3% monthly surge, reinforcing expectations of persistent cost pressures ahead of scheduled remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok.

Thursday 15th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to break down the market fallout from higher-than-expected US CPI data, where headline inflation reaccelerated to 3.7%. The surprise print triggered an immediate knee-jerk reaction across asset classes—sending the US Dollar Index up half a percent, pushing equities lower (with the Nasdaq down 1.9%), and sparking a wild 14-basis-point intra-session spike in 2-year US Treasury yields before bond yields eventually retraced. Locally attention shifts to today's crucial Australian September employment figures; following August's sharp jump in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. What will today’s print mean for the RBA’s November decision?.

Wednesday 14th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn today's episode, Phil Dobbie and NAB Senior FX Strategist Ray Attrill unpack a challenging economic picture as global inflation pressures and tight monetary policy weigh on market sentiment. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey highlighted a sharp drop in business confidence alongside a slump in the employment index to a five-year low, while the RBA minutes underscored persistent capacity constraints—including AI data center energy demands—keeping further rate hikes firmly on the table. Globally, equity markets traded softer as the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook flagged rising inflation forecasts and elevated bond yields as primary systemic risks, while US markets digested a mixed bag of Q3 bank earnings ahead of crucial CPI data.

Tuesday 13th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSemiconductor stocks are taking a beating as competition from China and internal US pressures weigh heavily on tech, while oil prices continue their climb as the Middle East conflict flares and the energy ceasefire fails to hold. NAB's Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to break down the latest market turbulence. They analyse the rising US dollar and sliding Australian dollar, escalating fiscal concerns in France driving bond spreads wider, and what to expect from today's key local releases—including the NAB Business Survey and the RBA meeting minutes.