NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 24th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been big global move down in equities yesterday and that continued overnight. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this risk-off mood. There’s no clear trigger except shares rose quickly last week. The Iran situation certainly wasn’t responsible after another day with more ships leaving the Strait and oil prices continuing to fall. But why has the Aussie dollar taken such a big hit? They also discuss yesterday’s PMIs and look ahead to today’s Australian inflation numbers.

Tuesday 23rd June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou might expect that as oil prices fall and the potential for economic growth resumes, big tech would be riding the wave. But, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains today, US share indices have been driven down by two falls in two giants – SpaceX is own over 12% and Alphabet lost 6% at one stage, each for very different reasons. Meanwhile the resignation of the UK Prime Minister barely registered on markets. Canadian inflation ticked up a little but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for the Bank of Canada. Today, PMIs for Australia, Japan, the Euro Area, the UK and the US. And a 30 second eulogy for former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, who died yesterday.

Monday 20th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US closed for business on Friday what market action there was largely driven by geopolitics. Peace talks in Switzerland start on shaky ground with question marks over whether Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has turned up the rhetoric, but it could just be another chapter from Art of the Deal. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s likely that the risk sentiment from last week could take a backward step today. Also today, its possible Keir Starmer will announce his plans to step aside as the UK performs its own self-induced regime change. A busy week ahead for Australian data include May’s CPI, employment numbers, job vacancies and household spending. Plus, US PCE deflator on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (for now).

Friday 19th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Is the Australian property market running out of puff, or are we just seeing the first ripples of a dramatic regulatory shake-up? Phil sits down with Cotality’s head of Australian research, Gerard Burg, to dig into whether the federal government’s newly minted tax overhauls for established dwellings are actively driving investors away. They break down a highly unusual shift in local listings where properties are sitting on the market far longer, signaling a slow rebalancing of supply and demand that actually predates the budget. From the roaring lifestyle market in Hobart to stark upper-quartile property slides in Sydney, this episode uncovers why first-home buyers are getting squeezed the hardest by compounding RBA interest rate hikes. Plus, they explore a looming structural nightmare: why the massive 36% post-pandemic spike in construction costs and the approaching 2032 Brisbane Olympics are set to derail the government’s ambitious target of building 1.2 million homes. Tune in to find out if the golden era of hands-off property speculation is officially behind us, and whether, as a positive, tax changes will finally push Aussie wealth into more productive areas of the economy.

Friday 19th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABVessels have begun navigating the Strait of Hormuz following the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran MoU, with Brent crude at three-month lows near $80 a barrel. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this is as low as we can expect it to go for now, at least until a more definitive peace emerges. Also, Ray explains why the Aussie dollar is holding its own against a surging U.S. dollar and why the Bank of England hold – and future holds – might have something to do with the "Maradona theory" of monetary policy. They had to get soccer in there somehow. All covered off before the need for a refreshment break.

Thursday 18th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA concise and hawkish Federal Reserve decision has shifted global desks. Phil unpacks Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting with NAB’s Gavin Friend. It delivered an unyielding 12-0 vote to hold rates steady alongside a razor-thin official statement that raised inflation forecasts and explicitly prioritised price stability. This refusal to offer traditional forward guidance pushed bond yields higher and sparked choppy swings across the Nasdaq, all while a surprise 0.9% surge in U.S. retail sales proved the American consumer is out shopping. Meanwhile the UK awaits employment data and a high-stakes by-election. Then there’s that MoU with the signing-ceremony a day away.

Wednesday 17th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB's view remains firm that the data flow won't give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures.  

Tuesday 16th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been a sharp market response to the apparent agreed memorandum of understanding, electronically signed by Iran and the US, with a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the market response, with yields falling, equities rising, the Aussie dollar gaining ground and oil prices plummeting. It’s the closest we’ve been to a deal yet, but it doesn’t resolve any of the underlying issues, of course, and ships having started passing through the Strait in any great number just yet. It’s also the start of a flood of central bank meetings, starting with the RBA (likely on hold) and the BoJ (expected to raise rate). Plus a chunk of activity data for China released today.

Monday 15th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss a week where markets are responding to the shifting realities of a proposed U.S.-Iran peace deal. Deep optimism over a potential memorandum of understanding opening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free pushed Brent crude down to $87.30 a barrel and led to sharp gains across European equities. Looking ahead to a massive week of central bank decisions—including the Fed, Bank of England, and a highly anticipated Bank of Japan hike—the focus turns to the RBA's upcoming statement. Sally expects the board to maintain its steady path while striking a balanced tone; the RBA will likely acknowledge cooling domestic activity via soft housing metrics and dropping capacity utilization rates, yet remain anxious over sticky inflation pipelines, leaving the truly consequential policy and forecast revisions till their August meeting.