NAB Morning Call

Friday 28th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the first day of the third quarter. The unsurprising news from French exit-polls this morning shows a clear win for Le Pen’s National Rally party, securing a third of the votes. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have already priced-in the outcome and there’s been very little movement in early trade. Markets responded a little more to Biden’s shaky debate performance on Friday. On the data front, the Core PCE Deflator, the fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was good news – a little better than expected if you look at the second decimal place! Germany’s CPI is out today and the Central Banking get-together kicks off in Portugal. 

Friday 28th June 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Could central banks push their timing back even further? Emma Lawson says we can’t ignore how economies are slowing, so there’s every chance that market pricing for cuts could move forward. It’s never a straight line, the fixed income strategist at Janus Henderson says.Does that mean we have to put aside the hope of a soft landing, anywhere in the world? Emma suggests we haven’t seen the cumulative impact of the tightening of policy yet because it takes time to filter through. But what about government spending, in Australia, the US and Europe?  Does it help or hinder the fight against inflation, and does it provide opportunities for investors.Emma give her take on the macro picture and the philosophy behind Janus Henderson’s approach to investing, and talks about Australia’s opportunity for investors – a mix of stability and instability and knowing what to do with it. Also, if the slow decline in central bank rates is one of the surprises of 2024, what does Emma think will be the next surprise that most people aren’t seeing?

Friday 28th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t a lot of data of significance around overnight, but the combination of a range of weak data prints fuelled some hope that the fed will cut sooner than markets had been moved towards. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a slight overnight rally on Australian bonds was likely to be a response to what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser has been saying, suggesting a partial CPI print for one month was hardly enough to base rate expectations on, and there’s a lot more data before the August meeting. The key number today is the US Core PC deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Markets will be very sensitive to this number, with Ray suggesting its important to look to the second decimal place because, on an annual basis, that can make all the difference.

Thursday 27th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday’s inflation number for Australia was a big surprise, pushing up yields, particularly at the front end, and pushing back expectations for cuts by the RBA. Some commentators – not NAB – are arguing this reinforces the case for a rate rise. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says travel was a largely responsible for the rise. He also talks about speculation from the RBA’s Chris Kent about the neutral rate, being somewhat higher than many might have expected. This morning’s other big story is the fall in the Yen to a 38 year low, and the response from China.

Wednesday 26th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCanada’s inflation came in hotter than expected in May and that’s pushed up Canadian bond yields overnight, but there’s been limited reaction to that – or anything really – on currency markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the print has pushed back expectations for the Bank of Canada to cut again in July. What happens next depends on the data. We get more Australian data today, with the CPI print for May and a speech by the RBA’s Chrisopher Kent. 

Tuesday 25th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere are three broad themes on today’s podcast. First, a missed day on US equities again, with falls in the S&P and NASDAQ. NVIDIA shares are well down, but even a minor correction is only a deny in their upward trajectory this year. There’s also the divide between the European and US economies, evidenced by last weeks PMIs. But is the difference really that great. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril agrees with the ECB’S Isabel Schnabel that, when it coms to fighting inflation, they’re not that far apart so it would be wrong to assume a divergence in policy by the two central banks. The other theme is the continued fall in the Yen and the repercussions it could have across the region, including the Australian dollar.

Monday 24th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPMIs on Friday continued to show the dichotomy between Europe and the US. Even within Europe we saw clear evidence of the weakness within Germany. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what these latest PMI numbers mean for central banks. Could the strong US print delay the Fed into next year, whilst providing the reasoning for the ECB to perhaps move a little faster? It all depends on the inflation data, of course. And we don’t have to wait long for that, with thew Fed’s preferred measure, the core PCE deflator out at the end of the week and European CPIs ahead of that. 

Friday 21st June 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Markets reacted rather swiftly to the news that President Macron had called a snap election for France, just after his own party had been heavily beaten in the European elections by Marine Le Pen’s Front National. This week Phil talks to Anne Bucher, from Bruegel, an independent European economic think tank. Anne is a former Director-General in the European Commission until October 2020 – in fact, she joined the commission in 1983 working across a wide variety of policy areas over may years. She has an innate knowledge of European politics.So, how does she see the French situation play out? Can we expect the more extreme elements of the Front National agenda to be watered down? Has the UK’s Liz Truss moment served as a warning bell for any party promoting higher debt?Whilst we can expect some compromise, Anne says the big casualty will be progress. As the EU fights battles with the right it’ll struggle to develop a cohesive plan for growth and climate change.

Friday 21st June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEurope is in the midst of the group rounds of the Euros, but when it comes to central bank cuts Switzerland is already the champion, with Britain the favourite to cut next. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through yesterday’s decisions by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Norge’s Bank. In the US markets seemed unfazed by Neel Kashkari’s claims that hitting the Fed’s inflation target might take a year or two. Perhaps his views were surpassed by more soft data overnight, including another rise in jobless claims. New Zealand’s GDP was a little higher than expected, but it won’t last, says Sally. And tonight the PMI data-dump for Germany, France, the Euro area, the UK and the US.