NAB Morning Call

Thursday 12th November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Gavin Friend discuss another powerful rally in the US dollar alongside a roaring comeback for technology equities, even as US bond markets remained closed for Veterans Day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed 0.7% to 102.9—touching its highest level since mid-October—putting widespread pressure on European currencies and the Yen, while the Australian dollar held relatively steady around 68.5 US cents. On Wall Street, the NASDAQ jumped 2.1% led by an extraordinary 3.8% surge across IT and semiconductors, with NVIDIA rebounding nearly 5% and Micron surging 14%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 also notched a fresh all-time high, buoyed by solid corporate earnings from the likes of Siemens Energy. Meanwhile, oil prices steadied near US$93 a barrel despite simmering rhetoric between Washington and Tehran, UK 2-year gilt yields surged 20 basis points over two sessions on rising Bank of England rate hike expectations ahead of today's UK Q3 GDP release, and Australian data revealed a record 16% quarterly plunge in the value of new home loans—driven by a 32% collapse in investor lending.

Wednesday 11th November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Skye Masters assess a "perfect storm" that has pushed the US dollar higher and sent the Australian dollar tumbling 1.1% to 68.5 US cents. Hotter-than-expected US core CPI (0.3% MoM) and hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan have reignited expectations for further US policy tightening—driving 10-year Treasury yields up 12 basis points to 5.0% and sending 2-year yields surging 18–20 basis points. In contrast, softer domestic prints from the NAB Business Survey and a four-year low in Westpac Consumer Sentiment have led markets to aggressively pare back expectations of further RBA rate increases, with cash rate futures now pricing just 1.6 basis points of tightening for December and beginning to price in cuts by late next year. Phil and Skye also examine Wall Street's volatile tech action, the NFIB small business survey’s persistent labour-matching problem, China's surging trade figures, and crude oil’s ongoing slide as markets keep an eye on Middle East headlines.

NAB'sTuesday 10th November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB's Ray Attrill unpack a strong risk-on session across global markets, led by a sharp 2.5% rebound in the Nasdaq and a steep decline in crude oil, with Brent sliding nearly 5% toward US$93.50 a barrel as Middle East de-escalation hopes take center stage. The semiconductor space saw dramatic divergence: while Nvidia dropped almost 5% following sensational allegations involving CEO Jensen Huang, rivals AMD and Broadcom surged 12% and 9% respectively, lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index more than 6%. Elsewhere, Chinese inflation prints highlighted ongoing domestic disinflation with headline CPI at 0.7% year-on-year, even as upstream PPI rose 5.7%. Domestically, the Australian dollar pushed back above 69 US cents ahead of today's key NAB Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Sentiment data for Australia, while investors globally brace for the crucial US CPI report due out later today. Meanwhile, European markets digest Dutch central banker Klaas Knot's candidacy for the ECB presidency and comments downplaying the immediate need for aggressive rate hikes.

Monday 9th November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld analyse a resilient finish to the week for the US economy. Wall Street found its footing on Friday—with the Nasdaq rebounding 1.1%—following a blowout US Non-Farm Payrolls print of 165,000 that beat expectations, even as accelerating average hourly earnings keep the Fed on track for a December rate hike. By contrast, Canadian employment data fell sharply, underscoring growing divergence across North America. The resurgent US dollar pressured the Australian dollar down to 68.7 US cents, while crude oil stabilized below US$99 a barrel despite fresh Houthi ballistic missile strikes on Riyadh. Regionally, New Zealand’s general election remains too close to call with Christopher Luxon’s National-led bloc holding a razor-thin advantage, and domestically, market focus turns to Tuesday’s NAB Business Survey tomorrow.

Friday 6th November 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil speaks with Professor Paul Whiteley from the University of Essex to break down the seismic political and economic fallout of the US midterm elections. Following a historic "blue wash" that delivered decisive control of both the House and Senate to the Democrats, Whiteley argues that Capitol Hill’s primary focus will be "cleaning up the mess"—strategically daring Donald Trump to wield his veto against popular domestic measures such as healthcare protections and billionaire wealth taxes to damage the Republican brand ahead of 2028. Beyond domestic gridlock, they examine how executive pushback could trigger an oversight avalanche targeting administration officials and corporate megadonors, whether the massive capex bubble across big tech and data centres is facing an inevitable market reckoning, and how European leaders might capitalize on a distracted Washington to assert greater strategic autonomy and coordinate aid for Ukraine. Finally, drawing on long-term global survey data from his upcoming book, Whiteley explains why this election could signal that the global tide of authoritarian populism has peaked, paving the way for a broader democratic recovery.

Friday 6th November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB's Gavin Friend break down a brutal tech-led sell-off on Wall Street as reality sets in over what a Democratic-controlled Congress means for big tech valuations and regulation. The Nasdaq plunged 5% and the S&P 500 tumbled 3.6%—dragging major names like Nvidia, Tesla, and Micron down between 8% and 15%—as investors price in heightened oversight, local moratoriums on massive AI data center build-outs, and fading odds of corporate tax breaks. The equity rout spurred a classic safe-haven flight into sovereign debt, with US 2-year Treasury yields sliding 11 basis points. In the UK, the Bank of England delivered a hawkish 25-basis-point rate hike—its first lift since August 2023—with member Catherine Mann pushing for 50 bps as Governor Andrew Bailey warned of sticky second-round inflation pressures. Meanwhile, oil prices staged a modest 2.8% rebound, French political gridlock deepened after the National Assembly rejected the revenue side of the budget bill, and markets ready for tonight's US non-farm payrolls release.

Thursday 5th November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Ray Attrill, unpack a dramatic risk-on session across global financial markets following a decisive Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. With the prospect of less in the way of military action in the Middle east crude dipped below US$94 a barrel for the first time since late September. This, combined with the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement tweaking issuance guidance, fueled a powerful rally in sovereign debt that sent US 10-year Treasury yields down 7 basis points and French 10-year yields tumbling 18 basis points. Global equity markets surged in response, whilst the US dollar weakened, lifting the Australian dollar back above 70.2 US cents. Domestically, while stronger-than-expected Australian household spending data for September (+0.6%) highlighted ongoing consumer resilience ahead of a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Andrew Hauser, across the Tasman, New Zealand’s labour market surprised on the downside, with Q3 employment contracting 0.1% and the jobless rate rising to 5.7%, significantly paring back market expectations for an aggressive RBNZ rate hike in December.

Wednesday 4th November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Taylor Nugent assesses the fallout from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Melbourne Cup Day decision, where the Board delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase to lift the cash rate to 4.85%. Despite the rate rise, domestic bond yields and the Australian dollar both declined—with the Aussie dipping back below 70 US cents—as markets seized on a dovish 6–3 split vote and a subtle softening in the RBA’s forward guidance, reinforcing NAB’s view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is now done and dusted. On Wall Street, tech equities mounted a modest recovery following recent steep losses, led by a bounce in semiconductor makers like Nvidia and AMD, though Apple slipped 1.8% despite beating quarterly revenue estimates. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped further—with Brent sliding toward US$103 a barrel—and US JOLTS data pointed to renewed labour mobility with a pickup in job openings and quits. Across the Pacific, all eyes now turn to the counting of the US midterm elections as polls close across the East Coast, with markets alert to the prospect of divided government in Washington.

Tuesday 3rd November 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril analyse a sharp drop in oil prices after reports surfaced that US President Trump is pursuing diplomatic de-escalation over Iran. That’s spurred a broader risk-on tone across financial markets, driving sovereign bond yields lower and boosting European and broad US equities, even as technology stocks lagged on persistent AI capex caution and pre-earnings nerves ahead of Apple’s results. Domestically, the spotlight turns to today’s Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, where markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point cash rate increase following last week’s sticky Q3 trimmed mean inflation print, even as building approvals data highlights mounting headwinds across the residential construction sector. Meanwhile, political focus intensifies around the US midterm elections, with polling pointing to an altered legislative landscape in Washington.