Share

cover art for More tariff exemptions, but equities lose their early gains

NAB Morning Call

More tariff exemptions, but equities lose their early gains

Season 9, Ep. 79

Tuesday 15th April 2025


NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB


US equities kicked off Monday’s session sharply higher on Friday's news of tariff exemptions for certain electronics items. Apple was one of the big beneficiaries. But as the session progressed most of those gains diminished, perhaps as President Trump’s weekend social media post sank in, suggesting nobody was exempt, they were just being moved to a different tariff bucket. Then, news circulated that car parts may also be exempt, pushing up the share price of auto manufacturers. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to make sense of the latest moves and to pick through the data that is still helping to guide investors.

More episodes

View all episodes

  • 151. Weekend Edition: Delving deep into household spending

    25:48||Season 9, Ep. 151
    Friday 11h July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was based on a time consuming survey of retailers, the Household Spending report uses real data from banks, supermarkets and car retailers.Robert Ewing is Program Manager, Business Statistical Production & Futures Branch at the ABS. Phil asks him what’s new in this report, is it accurate and what sort of enhancements can be expect down the track?  It all sounds like a big step forward, but any chance we can get it quicker?
  • 150. Markets ignore a 50% hit on Brazil

    19:31||Season 9, Ep. 150
    Friday 11th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again markets have shrugged off a tariff proclamation from President Trump. 50% could be levied on imports from Brazil, not because of trade (Brazil has a deficit) but in response to a trial against former President Bolsonaro. It’s a new direction for Trump’s tariff policy, but markets have taken it in their stride, with US equities rising today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are also questions about whether tariffs will be that damaging to the US economy after all. Evidence suggests exporters are swallowing some of their margins to keep prices low for US consumers. There’s also more Fed members suggesting the inflationary impacts could be limited. Phil and Ray also discuss the latest US jobs data  and today’s BNZ Manufacturing PMIs and UK GDP, both due out today.
  • 149. As quiet as it gets

    15:11||Season 9, Ep. 149
    Thursday 10th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed minutes this morning show how divided the US central bank is on how quickly to move rates - or whether to move at all this year -and the impact of tariffs on the economy. There’s also discussion about the RBNZ yesterday, China’s inflation data and what to look out for today. Spoiler alert: not much! . 
  • 148. Trump strikes a blow with copper

    18:10||Season 9, Ep. 148
    Wednesday 9th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously suggests NAB’s Skye Masters, who says it’ll also be interesting to see how a 10-year Treasury auction is received tonight. Phil also asks her about why the RBA decision yesterday was such a surprise.
  • 147. Zen and the Art of Trade Realignment

    14:39||Season 9, Ep. 147
    Tuesday 8th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Korea are front and centre, each subject to a 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. Although US equities are well down, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market response was rather tame. Perhaps because the implementation of these new rates doesn’t apply until 1st August. Maybe the rates will change. Meanwhile, locally, the focus is on the NAB Business Survey this morning, the RBA decision later. Markets have fully priced in a 25bp cut.
  • 146. Tariffs are back. How hard will Trump go?

    16:50||Season 9, Ep. 146
    Monday 7th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe letters go in the post today, apparently, containing the personally selected tariff that will be applied to US trading nations. The good news is that they probably won’t apply until 1st August, giving time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent says the US is aiming to reach a deal with 18 nations. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this all adds to uncertainty and it’s hard to imagine there won’t be volatility in markets this week. There wasn’t much response to the passing of the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, however. Markets have taken it in their stride. There’s likely to be some response to the weekend’s news that OPEC+ are upping production from next month. Ray suggests it’s a move to lower prices and gain market share. Trump’s ‘Drill Baby Drill’ might be a little less viable. Phil and Ray also look at Friday’s Australian Household Spending report and look ahead to this week’s rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ.
  • 145. Weekend Edition: Will the Republicans Sail Through the Mid-Terms?

    24:50||Season 9, Ep. 145
    Friday 4th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the President’s policy agenda will continue at pace for a year and a half, or three and a half years.Dr Debra Leiter is an associate professor with the Department of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She says there’s an iron law of mid-term loss, where the President’s party invariably sheds support and can lose control of the Senate or the House. But, despite his falling approval ratings, there’s a chance President Trump will buck the trend. Prof. Leiter tells Phil that you get a more accurate view of the outcome if you ask voters who they think will win, not who they will vote for. And, right now, that’s showing a clear victory for the Republicans.Then what happens? If President Trump manages to maintain control, who follows him into the White House? Will his policies be perpetuated, or will US politics swing back to the centre, or even the far left?
  • 144. Beautiful Done Deal. Unemployment Down. Happy 4th July.

    14:35||Season 9, Ep. 144
    Friday 4th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. The rest of the day’s data from the US were also largely positive, including the ISM Services index, the weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders.  Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House, meeting the deadline and adding to the positive vibes at the end of a shortened week. Today, Australia’s Household Spending Indicator is released. It’ll be interested to compare its figures with the weakness shown in the Retail Spending data published earlier in the week.
  • 143. Vietnam’s deal, UK tears and a deluge of jobs data

    15:09||Season 9, Ep. 143
    Thursday 3rd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with Japan is looking unlikely, but that could be simple ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market reaction to the watered-down UK’s Welfare Reform Bill that could add significantly to the UK deficit and drove bond yields much higher. The US Big Beautiful Bill, meanwhile, is struggling to get through the House of Reps. All eyes are now on jobs, with non-farm payrolls tonight, along with the weekly jobless claims. Markets reacted briefly to a big downside surprise in the ADP jobs numbers, but they are notoriously unreliable.