NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 5th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding of positions that you might associate with the Trump trade. The RBA meets today and there will be a lot of focus on what’s in and out of the statement, and whether there’s a more concerted effort to drive market expectations further back into mid-2025.

Monday 4th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMid-morning Wednesday Australia time the polls close in the US and soon after, hopefully, the world will know the choice made from two very different political and economic agendas. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this uncertainty is showing through in the data. It’s been blamed for the fall in the US manufacturing index on Friday, for example. It perhaps also explains why there was a limited response to Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which showed an unexpected contraction in employment growth. Also today, is NVIDIA about to overtake Apple as the highest valued company on the planet?

Friday 1st November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s data, for October, shows the growth streak in Sydney has been broken. Eliza joins Phil to break down the detail on trends in home prices across the country.

Friday 1st November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome big market moves overnight, with sharp falls in US equities.  Markets are clearly not impressed with the forecasts that came with the strong earnings results this week. In the UK bond yields are markedly higher, particularly at the front end. NAB’s Skye Masters says there are concerns that the extra spending could boost inflation.  The focus now is on tonight’s US jobs data, before a week that includes THAT election.

Thursday 31st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were a few reasons for central banks to be cautious about the speed of the cuts to interest rates. Europe is growing a little faster than expected, whilst German inflation kicked back up a little. Whilst US GDP is weaker it is being held up by strong levels of consumption. Australia’s CPI didn’t surprise, so there’s no reason for the FRBA to change the expected path of rate cuts. And the UK Chancellor announced a budget high on tax hikes, but also higher on borrowing. What impact will that have on the Bank of England? NAB’s Gavin Friend interprets a day rich on data - not forgetting the latest tech earnings - which much more to come.

Wednesday 30th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSomething for everyone today. On the jobs front US openings are down, whilst unemployment in Japan fell. On growth we have the US GDP number today, after the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast for Q3 was revised down.  Europe’s GDP numbers are released today along with CPI for various European countries, and for the Eurozone as a whole, today and tomorrow. More significantly, Australia’s quarterly CPI read is released this morning. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether it’ll have much impact on the timing of cuts from the RBA. Then there’s the tech earnings - Alphabet today, Meta and Microsoft tomorrow, Apple the day after. 

Tuesday 29th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs suggested yesterday oil prices fell sharply in this session as markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Middle East war didn’t escalate further after the Israeli attack on Iran. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to explain the continued rise in bond yields. Could a fear of inflation reigniting under a Trump presidency be part of the pricing? Kamala Harris makes her last major speech in Washington tonight, one week out from the election. We are a day away from Alphabet’s earnings results, but there are reports that Meta might be launching its own AI search engine, to reduce its reliance on Google and Bing, although no spike in Meta shares on the rumours.

Monday 28th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAfter that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of an economic slowdown, along with dates for the National People’s Congress which could ratify a rescue plan. This week there’s a lot of data to come, including US AND European Q3 GDP and US payrolls at the end of the week. Locally, all eyes will be on Australian inflation data middle of the week. 

Friday 18th October 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.They are neck and neck in the polls, so the US election could go either way, although markets are responding, to an extent, to betting odds which are showing Trump is the clear winner. The ABC’s John Barron reckons you have to be careful about betting odds. They often represent wishes rather than rational decisions. And polling data also has its weaknesses, as research companies struggle to find representative respondents. So, who will win and what changes if its Trump? Would he really push on with 20 percent tariffs on all US imports and the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants? John knows US politics well. He co-hosts the ABC’s Americast, and has written several books on the subject, including a history of US political campaigns called ‘Vote For me’ . On today’s Weekend edition he joins Phil to provide interesting insights into a man who is more bent on power than policy.