NAB Morning Call

Monday 20th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices were pushed higher as tensions in the Gulf escalate, and with more happening over the weekend there’s every chance oil prices will push higher still. Tech stocks took a hit on Friday with news of the imminent release of Kimi K3, China’s latest agentic open-source AI offering that challenges the supposed superiority of US solutions. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss both developments, and to look ahead to a week dominated by CPI numbers (NZ, UK, Japan, and Canada) and Australian labour market data.

Friday 17th July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The petroleum resource rent tax has been around since 1988. It was introduced by the Hawke government as a way to tax the super-profits from petroleum and gas companies extracting offshore resources, without reducing the incentive for new investments. There have been many tweaks to the system over the years, some following the Callaghan Review, commissioned by Scott Morrison in 2017. Now, the government is indicating it wants to see more money from these companies, which would mean more ‘tweaks’ to the system, or perhaps a totally new approach. But that’s easier said than done. Lachlan Vass, research manager at the e61 Institute, joins Phil to talk through the rationale behind the original approach, what’s changed, and why more changes might work, but could also be costly or counterproductive.

Friday17th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet day for data but another busy 24 hours for action in the Gulf. In the US retail sales rose, the Philly fed manufacturing index is up, job claims are down – and for a reminder of how great things are, Donald trump is giving an address to the nation this morning our time. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this moderate rise in US exceptionalism and discusses why oil has fallen despite declining hope for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It’s been stuck in a tight trading range the last few days, what will push it out of that and in which direction? Inflation expectations from the Michigan Fed’s Consumer Survey today will be of interest, but it’s a light calendar for data releases.

Thursday 16th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar is back in the seventies for now, with a weaker US dollar, while the only answer the US President seems to have for the Iran situation is more military action. Could this challenge the downward trend in inflation? US PPI overnight was weaker than expected, adding to the softer CPI numbers the day before. Meanwhile, a slowdown in China’s growth, although there were some positive signs for the domestic economy. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss all of this, plus the Bank of Canada decision overnight. They look ahead to US retail sales and UK GDP later on and explain why the pound is one of the strongest upward currency moves this morning.

Wednesday 15th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAt his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Kevin Warsh vowed to make today’s elevated inflation ‘a thing of the past’, whilst warning that softer inflation numbers overnight should not be seen as ‘mission accomplished’. NAB’s Skye Masters tells Phil that, even though expectations for a July rate hike have lessened, markets are still pricing in more than one this year. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and US bank earnings, and the President’s reversal on a 20% levy on goods passing through the Strait. But with tensions not easing, oil continues to rise in price. A busy day today as well with data from China, US, Europe and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada. 

Tuesday 14th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump posted overnight that the US would blockade Iranian oil and charge shipping a 20% levy on the value of their cargo to help them through the Strait. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill it is a curious move for someone wanting to see oil price lower – it had the opposite effect, pushing oil up over 9 percent, even though many might discount it as just another Trump negotiating tactic. Tech stocks have taken a hit too. The focus today will be on US CPI, with the Fed’s Christopher Waller sounding increasingly hawkish. Tonight we’ll also get a flush of US bank quarterly earnings. 

Monday 13th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices fell on Friday even though war-like behaviour in the Gulf escalated. The hostilities ramped up even further over the weekend, so can investors hold their nerve and keep oil prices below $80? Phil is joined by NAB’s Taylor Nugent to talk through the prospects for the week ahead – a week that includes US inflation and retail sales data, alongside a swathe of bank earnings, plus the NAB Business Survey for Australia and China’s Q2 GDP growth.

Friday 10th July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.All is not so rosy in China despite the official figures showing continued strong growth. ‘It’s not as becalmed and orderly as the government would have us believe’, says George Magnus.  George is an independent economist and a research associate at the China centre at Oxford University and at the school of Oriental and African studies in London. He was previously chief economist at UBS and wrote ‘Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy’. He joins Phil to talk about the unreliability of China’s growth data, in particular how the targeted high growth industries, supported by government investment, are overshadowing the broader economy, where wages are low, unemployment is high and growth is at a crawl. Meanwhile government debt is growing. How sustainable is this path and what does it mean for exporters deliver resources to China? ‘Hedging your future business risks might be a good thing,’ says George.

Friday 10th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHostilities continue to escalate in the Gulf yet oil prices have fallen and bond markets rallied. Are we over it? On today’s podcast NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are accepting there wil be low grade military action for some time to come, and oil will continue to trade in a quasi-equilibrium between $70 and $90. The Fed’s John Williams said overnight that he expects oil prices to fall as the year progresses, despite the rise in hostilities. He said he was more concerned about AI as a driver of inflation. Sally also talks to Phil about yesterday’s stellar manufacturing PMI and the fall in China’s inflation.