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NAB Morning Call
Keeping the dream alive
Season 9, Ep. 42
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Monday 3rd March 2025
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Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
There were two bits of news to drive markets on Friday, First, that press conference that left us wondering whether a peace deal in Ukraine could ever happen, But the gathering of European leaders on Sunday suggests peace could be brokered, at least between Zelensky and Trump. So. the dream has been kept alive. The other news was the signs of softness in the US economy, evidenced by lower spending, a massive increase the trade deficit and a complete turnaround in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast. But, as NAB’S Tapas Strickland explains, a lot of this could be driven by pre-tariff behaviour, particularly for the import of machinery earlier than usual. There are concerns, though, that the economy might be slowing more than expected, which has nudged rate cut expectations slightly higher. Supposedly tariffs on Mexico and Canada kick off today, but we look at one way it might be avoided or at least delayed again. Plus, why this is a busy week for Australian data.
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34. Aussie unemployment supports rate hike, higher tension in Middle East
15:22||Season 10, Ep. 34Friday 20th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, reinforcing the case for a potential RBA rate hike in May as the labour market remains tighter than expected. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged above $71.80 a barrel as the U.S. bolsters its air power in the Middle East to levels not seen since 2003, creating a volatile backdrop of geopolitical risk. While the U.S. continues to show economic resilience with a strong labor market, a record-high trade deficit and cautious outlooks from major retailers like Walmart are tempering global market optimism. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the overnight market news.33. War, wages and algorithms
15:48||Season 10, Ep. 33Thursday 19th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are heating up in the Middle East, with Iran getting itself ready in case talks fail. As a result oil prices have moved up sharply, with Brent back over $70 a barrel. While the geopolitical scene is tense, tech stocks are bouncing back, perhaps using a set of moderately optimistic second-tier data as the reason. Meanwhile NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through UK inflatioin, which has cooled to 3%, and Aussie wages holding steady at 3.4%. Australian employment numbers are out today and, to top it all off, the tech world is bracing for Mark Zuckerberg’s landmark testimony on whether Meta’s algorithms are intentionally addictive—an outcome that could have a big impact on share prices. Gavin also manages to sneek in the FOMC minutes, just released.32. Choppy markets settle as Middle East war risk fades
13:16||Season 10, Ep. 32Wednesday 18th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA choppy session for equities, bonds and energy, as Iran went from powder keg to hopes of peace. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the talks have a long way to go and oil is still well down despite the switch in sentiment. Phil and Rodrigo also break down the pound’s 0.6% slide following a rise in UK unemployment to 5.2% and they dive into the RBA’s latest minutes, which showed a hold was given consideration. There’s also discussion on Canada’s "slow grind" disinflation and a look ahead to today’s Australian Wage Price Index and the RBNZ rate decision.31. Out of Office
13:28||Season 10, Ep. 31Tuesday 17th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTrading was thin with holidays in the US and Asia on Monday, but there was still data around. NAB’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about jittery GDP figures from Japan and the mixed industrial signals coming out of Europe. They also weigh up the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, which shows high investor optimism despite a lack of downside protection, and touch on why geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping a floor under oil prices.30. US inflation slows faster, but still a bit to go
14:31||Season 10, Ep. 30Monday 16th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil catches up with NAB’s Ken Crompton to break down the fallout from a cooler-than-expected 0.2% US inflation print, which sent bond yields tumbling and left the US 2-year yield at its lowest level since mid-2022. They dig into the reality of the Fed’s waiting game, the New York Fed data showing that US consumers and firms are footing 90% of the tariff bill, and why the "AI vigilantes" are continuing to eye tech stocks with a bit more scepticism. From the Bank of England’s internal split over rate hikes to a busy week ahead featuring Japan's Q4 GDP and fresh inflation numbers from the UK and Canada, it’s a deep dive into whether the global disinflation trend is truly taking hold or hitting a snag.
29. Weekend Edition: From Dairy to Data: Can NZ Outgrow Australia’s Shadow?
30:01||Season 10, Ep. 29Friday 13th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil grills BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on which central bank played the inflation fight better — the RBNZ with its early hammer, or the RBA with its softer touch. They tear into NZ’s slow growth, a labour market now showing 5.4% unemployment, population pressures, housing distortions, and whether China’s slowdown or Trump‑era geopolitics pose the bigger threat. Plus: can NZ keep leaning on agriculture, is tech finally a real opportunity, and how do the two neighbours stack up on growth, risks and untapped upside.28. The chips are down
14:15||Season 10, Ep. 28Friday 13th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets are wobbling again as the AI boom shows its darker side — soaring investment costs on one hand, and the threat of software-sector disruption on the other — dragging the NASDAQ and S&P sharply lower. Bond yields are softer, commodities are sliding, and the Aussie has dipped below 71 US cents. In the UK, GDP is technically growing but only just, while Japan enjoys a rare week of political calm that’s helped steady JGBs and lift the yen. At home, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter has doubled down on the message that full employment and inflation remain uncomfortably intertwined. And with US CPI due today, markets are bracing for whether the Fed’s disinflation path is still intact. Phil talks it all through with NAB’s Ray Attrill.27. Buy baby buy
15:43||Season 10, Ep. 27Thursday 12th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA surprise surge in Australian home loans has everyone asking whether it’s a one off policy quirk or fresh fuel for another RBA hike, while a headline grabbing jump in US payrolls looks far less convincing once you see where the jobs actually are. Add in firmer oil on Iran worries, a flat US dollar, a stronger Aussie, and the UK bracing for GDP growth that’s technically positive but barely, and you’ve got plenty for NAB’s Taylor Nugent to unpack on today’s podcast.26. Weak retail sales ahead of payrolls
13:58||Season 10, Ep. 26Wednesday 11th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are still grinding higher, but the real action is in bonds and currencies, with US Treasury yields tumbling after flat retail sales and softer price data, and the yen staging the day’s standout move, edging further away from the intervention zone. Commodities are drifting lower, Bitcoin continues its long slide from last year’s peak, and all eyes now turn to an unusually timed mid‑week non‑farm payrolls. At home, the NAB Business Survey shows conditions easing but confidence nudging up, capacity pressures softening, and consumer sentiment taking another hit alongside a sharp drop in building approvals. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to unpack what falling yields say about Fed expectations, why the yen is suddenly lively, and what the latest Australian data could mean for the RBA’s next move.