NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 16th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by much, but bond yields have pushed higher and lifted the US dollar a little further too. A weaker Yen and Aussie dollar have been two of the consequences. Today employment data for the UK, CPI for Canada and GDP for China. Plus the latest forecasts from the IMF.

Monday 15th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHow markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there hasn’t been much response in early trade today, but Bloomberg Economics is predicting a sizeable spike in oil prices if this broadens to a regional war, with the subsequent impact on global GDP and inflation. There’s also discussion on China’s trade numbers from Friday, the weakening Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and what to look out for today, besides the latest geopolitics.

Friday 12th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this?JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesn’t think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity.

Friday 12th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChristine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didn’t help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldn’t cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NAB’s base case that the BoE is some way away yet.

Thursday 11th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Masters says the moves reflect markets who have been holding out for a June rate cut – now reality has hit. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ both kept rates on hold, with a similar message that they need more time before considering cuts. It seems the ECB might be the first to cut – we’ll get some fresh insights at their meeting later today.

Wednesday 10th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss yesterday's NAB business survey and consumer confidence, as well as diving into the surprising results from the NFIB business optimism index in America which is at its lowest level since 2012. And Phil eats some humble pie.

Tuesday 9th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs that other parts of the world might be recovering a little faster. Een Europe is showing signs of a recovery. At home yesterday’s housing finance was stronger than expected, another factor that could delay the RBA. Today the NFIB small business survey is out, but ray says the key small business number is already out. Listen in for more. 

Monday 8th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. He says, surely they’d be happy to see a broader workforce because it would ease wage inflation pressures? There’s also discussion on rising commodity prices, the record price of gold and yet a falling Australian balance of trade. Three central banks meet in the week ahead. Listen in for more.

Friday 5th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country steeped in debt, with large scale developments being forced into administration? Diana Choyleva is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, a research company based in London that focuses on China. She suggests the short-term target is likely achievable, but the longer term proposition is less certain as the economy struggles to create increased domestic demand whilst undergoing more decoupling from the west.There are further insights available from the Enodo Economics website, including this paper: China Unveils Expansionary Policy In Support Of Xi's Security Objectives - https://bit.ly/3U2xiAE