NAB Morning Call

Friday 20th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend edition Phil is joined by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, to analyze the deepening economic fallout of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. As oil prices surge past $110 a barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Wolf weighs the likelihood of a "nightmare" long-term war against a more optimistic scenario where President Trump declares a swift victory. The discussion explores the potential for a 1970s-style stagflationary shock, the precarious strategic position of an energy-dependent Europe, and the paradoxical resilience of the US dollar as a safe haven. Wolf also sheds light on the broader geopolitical ripple effects, from China’s irritation with regional instability to the severe strain on emerging nations facing a "double whammy" of rising tariffs and energy costs.

Thursday 19th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDespite mounting geopolitical risks and a surge in oil prices, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a remarkably dovish stance, holding rates steady while signaling that a future cut remains a priority. Phil talks with NAB’s Gavin Friend to explore the central bank's curious optimism as it simultaneously upgrades its US GDP and inflation forecasts while still aiming for rate reductions later this year. Even with a hotter-than-expected 0.7% jump in the Producer Price Index suggesting persistent supply chain pressures, Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed is "looking through" the current energy shock to focus on a resilient labor market. As the Fed holds its nerve, attention shifts to the Bank of England and the ECB to see if they will follow this lead or react more sharply to the deepening collapse in economic confidence. The blowback from the attack on Iran’s South Pars refinery will also be watched, as it could mark a significant inflection point in the Middle East war.

Wednesday 18th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Sally Auld unpacks the fallout from the RBA's recent interest rate hike to 4.1%. While the decision was a close 5-4 split, it was a question of timing rather than any division of intent. Governor Michelle Bullock’s warning that a recession might be a "necessary" cost to tame stubborn inflation has sent ripples through the market. Meanwhile there’s the surprising resilience of the global economy, noted in both Chinese and US data prior to the Middle East conflict. Phil and Sally also look ahead to the the Bank of Canada and the Fed both poised to keep rates on hold in a "mega week" for central banks.

Tuesday 17th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil this morning to explore the curious rise in global risk appetite despite ongoing volatility and a lack of significant change in the Middle East conflict. They break down the surprising overnight market shifts, including falling yields and a strengthening Aussie dollar, while questioning the sustainability of this "mild positive sentiment". There’s also a preview of today’s highly anticipated RBA meeting - where a rate hike to 4.1% is widely expected - and analyses strong new economic data from China that suggests a firmer start to the year for the global power.

Monday 16th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe war in the Middle East continues to drive sentiment, with oil pushing back above $100 and bond yields rising. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil this morning to discuss how weak US data on Friday, including a sharp fall in GDP. This compounds the issue, leaving central banks balancing inflstion fears with concerns about demand destruction. Slowing economic growth is not confined to the US – the UK also saw weak GDP numbers on Friday, whilst unemployment rose in Canada. None of this is likely to prevent a rate rise from the RBA tomorrow, but other central banks meeting this week, of which there are many, are likelyt to wait and see how things unfold.

Friday 13th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this episode of The Morning Call, Stewart Upson, Co-President of Infrastructure and Global Head of Strategy at Brookfield, discusses the massive infrastructure shift driven by the rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence. Upson frames AI as a "flywheel" for technological development, highlighting a staggering $7 trillion investment opportunity over the next decade as the industry moves from basic data centers to fully integrated "data factories". He emphasizes that energy supply remains the primary bottleneck for growth, explaining how Brookfield leverages its expertise in renewable power and nuclear energy to de-risk these high-capital projects. From the rise of sovereign AI and personal AI agents to the long-term potential of embodied AI and robotics, Upson provides a comprehensive look at how infrastructure investors are building the foundation for a more productive, AI-driven global economy.

Friday 13th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Gavin Friend joins Phil today as heightened rhetoric over Iran pushes oil back over $100 for a spell. They unpack a significant climb in bond yields across the US, UK, and Europe, reflecting a market that is quickly pricing out hope for near-term rate cuts amidst the largest oil supply disruption in history. While the IEA warns of an 8 million barrel per day drop in global supply for March, Gavin breaks down why US Navy escorts might be the only hope for reopening the Straits of Hormuz by month's end. The conversation also pivots to the UK's precarious fiscal position under Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of new GDP data and a surprisingly sharp narrowing of the US trade deficit that could shift Q1 growth forecasts.

Thursday 12th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the intensifying tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on merchant vessels and the threat of naval mines have effectively halted all shipping traffic. Despite a massive release of 400 million barrels of oil from IEA reserves, supply fears have pushed Brent crude toward $92 a barrel, with Iran warning the west should prepare for $200 oil. So, how is this energy shock complicating the global inflation outlook, specifically forcing a shift in NAB’s forecast to include consecutive RBA rate hikes in March and May to combat mounting domestic capacity constraints.