NAB Morning Call

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed what many other economies haven’t. We have brought down inflation without driving the economy into recession. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a direct contrast to the RBNZ approach, which was to hit the economy hard, and slower demand would mean there was lots of spare capacity, making it easier for the economy to re-establish itself. The RBA approach has been much more softly-softly, which means jobs have been maintained and growth has continued. The problem is, there’s much less spare capacity. If we see too much growth, then prices could rise, forcing the RBA to lift rates to slow things down. Is that where we are now? Can you slow the economy with just one rate rise? Sally talks to Phil about what could happen next.

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields rose in Australia and Japan yesterday and overnight. In Japan 10-year JGBs reached 1.94%, the highest level since 2007. NAB’s Skye Masters says it relates to the continued expectation of a rate hike by the BoJ, and the higher yields have created a buying opportunity for investors. Yields have risen in Australia as household spending for October came in higher than expecting, suggesting the RBA might set a hawkish tone to their next meeting, indicating a rate hike is coming sooner than many have been expecting.

Thursday 4th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs number came in weaker than expected. Normally, perhaps, people wouldn’t pay too much attention — they’re often wrong — but when it’s all you’ve got, it matters. It’s another reason for a rate cut by the Fed next week.Meanwhile, Aussie GDP also came in weaker than expected… though maybe strong in the right places. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the implications of that, and they decipher the latest global services PMIs and look ahead to the release of Australia’s trade balance this morning.

Wednesday 3rd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have a tiny bit more risk appetite today, which has helped push US equities higher and helped Bitcoin resume its rise to new horizons (perhaps). The Yen lost a large chunk of yesterday’s gains, but JGB yields remain high, alongside expectations for a BoJ rate hike. At home, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest GDP partials will do little to change the expectation for a 2.2% rise, year on year, a little higher than the RBA is forecasting. And Michelle Bullock fronts up to the senate economics committee.

Tuesday 2nd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how much global contagion have we seen from Japan’s bond sell off.Cryptocurrencies took a particularly big hit overnight, and US equities ended their rally, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing read. Today GDP partials for Australia and NZ’s terms of trade are amongst the highlights.

Monday 1st December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFor all the volatility that we saw in November we actually finished the month with the Australian dollar and US equities back where they started from. There have been movements in precious metals however, with gold bouncing back and silver hitting an all-time high on Friday. NAB's Ray Attrill actual joins Phil to talk through the latest market moves and the latest data including German inflation, Canada's GDP, Tokyo CPI and China's PMIs. They also look ahead to Australia's inflation numbers this week.

Friday 28th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia is the third biggest exporter of cotton and has a reputation for quality. But Adam Key, CEO of Cotton Australia, says the differential might be changing as other producers lift their game. We do have the advantage, though, that we produce some of the highest yields in the world, but that is being challenged. Liz Stott is Chair of Cotton Australia and is a farmer from Leeton in the Riverina. She says there are years when there just isn’t enough water and production has to be cut back. It’s also has higher input costs than many other agricultural products which makes it harder to make a profit. But for the communities where cotton is grown the success of these farms is vital for local employment and supporting industries.This week Phil talks to Liz and Adam about the challenges for Australia’s cotton industry, and how Trump’s America is adding to the problem. But the answer rests with Australia’s sustainability credentials. 

Friday 28th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThanksgiving might be a US celebration, but it seems Australia and New Zealand both have a lot to be thankful for, unless you were hoping for lower interest rates. NZ’s retail sales yesterday were higher than expected, and business confidence was also strong. In Australia private new capital expenditure was high – reminiscent of the mining boom early this century, says NAB’s Sally Auld. Meanwhile, equity and bond markets in the US were closed for Thanksgiving, and with an early close today it might be another quiet session to end the week. 

Thursday 27th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree central banks close to the end of their easing cycle. A hawkish cut from the RBNZ yesterday could well be the last. The same could well apply to the RBA after yesterday’s monthly CPI came in higher than anticipated. But the Bank of England might well be ready to cut, as markets accepted more fiscal headroom and a reduction to the supply of 30-year gilts. The public response is less jubilant, particularly as the freeze on tax thresholds is not being extended to a 10-year run. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a busy day.