NAB Morning Call

Monday 18th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong increase in manufacturing in the NY Fed survey. China’s data on Friday also gave some hope. This week, Taylor suggests, markets will have more words from central bank speakers and the like, rather than hard numbers to go on. It’s going to be one of those weeks.

Friday 15th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local market? Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He is not optimistic about the prospects for the world economy. Phil talks to him about the ramifications for regions like Europe and China, where growth prospects are already uncertain. How do they adapt to working with, or without, Fortress America?

Friday 15th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian unemployment numbers just don’t want to move. JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why NAB now expects a cut from the RBA to be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025 and might not even happen next year at all. It’ll be interesting to hear the spin from Fed speakers in the US now, after lower-than-expected job claims and a higher than anticipated PPI. After a December cut could the resilience in the economy coupled with Trump policies, delay any further cuts. Plus a preview of our Weekend Edition with FT’s Martin Wolf.

Thursday 14th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to push higher, with the AUD one of the main casualties. The PBoC is also clearly concerned about the weakness on the CNY. It’s not just the dollar that is staying high - US inflation is taking a while to come down. The CPI number overnight was as expected, though markets seem to be reacting as though they are relieved it wasn’t higher. As a result, pricing for a December rate cut increased slightly. Locally, the Australian Wage price Index slowed a little more than expected, but not enough of a move to change the timing for the RBA. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss all this, plus all the rest of today’s market news.

Wednesday 13th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets continue to embrace the optimism of a pro-growth Trump presidency, even as equities back off their highs a little in this session. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to strengthen and the latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey shows investors exposure to equities has hit the highest level since 2013. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil today to talk through the latest US market action, as well as yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey, both of which showed an uptick in sentiment. Today’s big number is US CPI, but can it really give us an idea of the direction of travel when so much depends on Trump’s policies early next year?

Tuesday 12th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares. With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in his second Presidency. Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but NAB has issued new FX forecasts based on the assumption that the new administration will quickly push ahead with its tariff promises. That means the Aussie dollar won’t reach 70 us cents next year, not helped by the deepening weakness in the Chinese economy.

Monday11th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government debt rather than provided direct stimulus to businesses and consumers. It’s a busy week for Australian data, with labour market numbers out on Thursday and the wage price index for Q3 on Wednesday, plus the NAB Business Survey tomorrow.

Friday 8th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners. According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of Homes NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension. Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out. Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades?

Friday 8th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year. The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely. Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress, most likely before the Sydney close says Sally.