NAB Morning Call

Monday 11th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCould we be on the verge of positive steps from the Gulf? Iran has responded to the US proposal and, as Phil points out, its not an outright rejection. This is also the week that President Trump meets President Xi, a discussion that could be critical to any solution in the Gulf. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by non-farm payrolls. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the surprisingly strong results, even though the polar opposite was happening north of the border in Canada. It’s a busy week domestically with the NAB Business Survey tomorrow, and the wage price index and a the Federal Budget. Plenty to keep us all busy.

Friday 8th May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil explores the massive shift of Australian retirement savings toward Europe as the domestic superannuation system prepares to surge to a staggering $8.3 trillion by 2035. Joined by David Whiteley of IFM Investors and Nicola Jolley, CEO of NAB Europe, the discussion reveals why France has emerged as a premier hub for "patient capital," offering high-value opportunities in Public-Private Partnerships and strategic sectors like low-carbon district heating, waste-to-energy, and digital infrastructure. With so much money flowing into Australian super funds every week, the race is on to secure long-term, resilient returns in the European market. Tune in to discover how Australian workers are becoming some of the world's most influential investors in the global infrastructure of the future.

Friday 8th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil has been down, then up. Equiites have been just as volatile. As NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses with Phil, markets are struggling to find direction as headlines paint an uncertain picture in the Middle East. On the positive side there are reports that Iran will surrender some of its enriched uranium, but also speculation that Iran is insisting on charges for passage through the Strait, and a Wall Street report that the US is set to resume Operation Freedom. Meanwhile, a lot of the focus today will be on non-farm payrolls. Weekly continuing jobless claims are continuing to trend lower. They also look at data from Europe and the possible repercussions of the UK local council elections, with results filtering through in the next 8 hours or so.

Thursday 7th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are running on hope again today, with the US issuing a memorandum of understabd to Iran, with the hope that month long peace talks could be about to start. Presidnet Trump also cancelled Operation Freedom yesterday. Markets have taken this all as good news, even though the Straits remain closed and oil reserves continue to fall. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the positive market sentiment today, as well as delving into jobs numbers in the US and New Zealand. Australia’s trade surplus figures today will be impacted by the price of oil. That’s simple maths, says Ken. 

Wednesday 6th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem enthused by the fact that, today at least, things didn’t get worse in the Middle East. That said, they didn’t get any better either, and the world, meanwhile is chewing up its crude oil reserves. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the market action and yesterday’s RBA meeting, which saw interest rates lifted, and the NAB view is that they’ll do it again at the next meeting. Taylor explains the thinking behind that, and looks ahead to New Zealand’s employment data today and the ADP jobs numbers for the US.

Tuesday 5th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s Operation Freedom, designed to escort vessels trapped in the Gulf, has got off to a shaky start. Iran claims they attacked a US warship (which the US denies), but nobody seems game enough to traverse the strait of Hormuz. Meanhwile the UAE has seen a number of drone attacks, So markets are uneasy today. On the home front, the RBA is very likely to lift rates today. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through it all.

Monday 4th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt certainly seems likely that the war between Iran and USA/Israel will continue for some time to come with Donald Trump likely to reject Iran’s 17-point peace deal claiming that they haven't paid the price yet for the damage they've done over the decades. Still, as Phil discusses with NAB's Rodrigo Catril US equities continued to climb hitting new highs again on Friday. The US President has also taken aim at Europe claiming that they are not following the terms of the trade agreement and saying that he will impose a 25% tariff on European cars as well as pulling out 5000 troops from Germany. This week a lot of the focus will be on the RBA, and non-farm payrolls from the US on Friday, with a swag of European data in the middle of the week as well.

Friday1st May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil is joined by veteran energy analyst Neil Atkinson to peel back the curtain on a global energy system pushed to the brink by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, they discuss why the market’s hope for $80 oil later this year may be a "pipeline dream" given that actual physical cargoes are already fetching upwards of $150 a barrel. The conversation dives into the structural shifts reshaping the industry—from the UAE’s seismic departure from OPEC to why major oil giants like BP and Shell are pivoting back to their "fossil fuel basics" to satisfy shareholder demand. Whether it’s the looming threat of aviation fuel shortages in Europe or Australia’s dangerously low 32-day fuel reserve, this episode is an essential guide to understanding the true, long-term cost of a prolonged geopolitical firestorm on the world economy.

Friday 1st May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil rose to its highest level since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz before retracing and ending up lower than a day ago. Why? Phil talks to NAB’s Ken Crompton. Certainly it's not due to progress on peace talks, quite the reverse. But equity markets have risen on the back of healthy tech earnings results – although some did better than others. The Bank of England and ECB both kept rates on hold but made noises to suggest that rate hikes could be on the agenda if we see second round effects from rising oil prices. And the Yen rose sharply, with the suggestion that its down to intervention by the MoF. US ISM is the main data point tonight.