NAB Morning Call

Thursday 30th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABKevin Warsh reiterated that the market needs to make its own decision on where the economy is headed. Not follow the Fed’s guidance. At the same time, he said they will consider the markets moves when determining monetary policy. So, who is following who? NAB’s Gavin Friend says the press conference left markets confused. Chip stocks continued to take a battering head of earnings results for Microsoft and Alpha shortly. Oil prices rise as military actions picks up again in the Middle East, with Trump quoted (on Fox News) as saying Iran will “take a beating”. And today the focus is on European and US GDP, and US income and spending data, plus core PCE and, for the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold. That’s enough for one day, surely!

Wednesday 29th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are torn between optimism in the Gulf against fears over valuations of tech. Chipmakers have seen further sizeable falls in their shares, whilst oil is also well down. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the two, which have seen investors lean more to the positive outcomes from lower oil prices, for now. On the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Oman has suggested it is jointly managed with Iran with the payment of voluntary fees, however that would work! The take-outs from Michelle Bullocks speech yesterday are also discussed, plus Australian CPI numbers ae out today and a look ahead to the Fed, overnight tonight.

Tuesday 28th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS tech stocks have taken a hit again for the third straight session, with chipmakers joining software companies in the slide. Other stocks though have been buoyed by the lull in fighting in the Middle East, with three quieter nights as the US ’gives room’ for diplomacy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about how this respite has helped oil lower and driven down bond yields and inflation expectations. It’s a generally quiet day ahead before the week gets busy with central bank decisions and earnings reports.

Monday 27th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFighting between the US and Iran eased back on Friday after 13 nights of continual bombardment. The US President says talks are ongoing, and NAB’s Sally Auld wonders whether the $100 mark for oil acts as an inducement for both sides to calm things down. The risk, though, is the rise in activity between the Saudis and Houthis. Meanwhile, positive PMI data on Friday. Sally takes us through that ad UK retail sales, all helped, perhaps by the World Cup. There’s a busy week ahead, with the BoE, Fed and BoJ meeting, plus Australian inflation numbers middle of the week.

Friday 24th July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.As the Brent price climbs back into triple digits and the tensions in the Gulf show no sign of easing, what does that mean for the price of gold. Logic would have dictated that geopolitical unease would strengthen gold as investors look for an inflation-proof safe haven. Instead, the opposite has happened. Prices fell. Why? More significantly why had they risen so much in the last couple of years? And the question everyone has, does it hold steady or does it fall down with the same momentum that we saw fuel its meteoric rise? Phil asks John Reade all those questions. He is senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, who suggests the price is being driven less by geopolitics and more by government debt. Listen in for a fascinating half hour discussion about how the driving forces behind gold prices are changing.

Friday 24th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is back into triple digits this morning as Houthis fire on Saudi vessels in the red Sea and reports of retaliatory action on Iran’s Qeshm Island. At the same time, equities have taken a hit after Alphabet and Telsa earnings. Shares for both are well down because, although revenues are strong, the cash-burn rate in each case is flagged as a major concern, and Tesla had to reduce prices to hold-up sales resulting in much lower margins. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about these two major developments overnight, as well as examining Australia’s employment data yesterday, which showed more people working, but the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. Taylor explains what’s happening and what it could mean for the RBA.

Thursday 23rd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil continues to rise as diplomacy in the Gulf rapidly disappears. Donald Trump is now threatening retaliatory action each time Iran fires at a vessel in the Hormuz strait, whilst promising Saudi Arabia a deal to enrich uranium on their territory. Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through oil prices and inflation expectations, as well as examining UK CPI numbers, today’s Australian labour market data and what’s expected from the Bank of Canada. Plus, the first of the major tech earnings results after the market close in the US.

Wednesday 22nd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIntelligence suggests that Iran has moved its nuclear capability inside Pickaxe Mountain, which the US President has said they will attack, heavily. That, together with an IEA warning and Saudi ships turning around in the Red Sea has pushed oil higher, back into the nineties, with the potential to go much further. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the market response to this, plus the rebound in equities, particularly for chipmakers, ahead of Alphabet and Tesla earnings this morning. Plus, yesterday’s employment data, today’s CPI and how the new UK PM is treading a careful path on spending.