NAB Morning Call

Thursday 11th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its third consecutive cut this year, but there were several dissenters. Sally Auld talks through the decision, the statement and the dot plot, which now forecasts just one cut next year. Will that even be necessary? The Bank of Canada left rates on hold, whilst Christine Lagarde suggested that growth forecasts in Europe might be revised up. Sally suggests all three central banks could be reaching the end of their easing cycle, if they are not there already. Today, Australia’s employment numbers will be a focus, with trade data for Canada and the US still hopelessly out of date.

Wednesday 10th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (expected to cut) and the Bank of Canada overnight (expected to hold). Polus, what are the latest JOLTs numbers telling us about the US labour market?

Tuesday 9th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA meets today — no big moves expected, but markets are watching closely for hints about when rates might rise. Over in Europe, bond yields climbed after an ECB policymaker signalled that the era of easing is over and the next direction is up. Meanwhile in the U.S., policy rates are still falling — though the debate is how far they’ll go. Even Kevin Hassett, tipped as Trump’s likely pick for the Fed, is cautioning against too many cuts next year. And don’t forget today’s NAB business survey: it could reveal fresh insights on capacity utilization, the very metric that rattled the RBA last time.

Monday 8th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the RBA and the Fed this week. We know what to expect- the Fed is likely to cut rates, the RBA its likely to be on hold. We’re also expecting hawkish commentary, particularly from the RBA. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact on bond yields, with Aussies10 year yields up 1.37% over the last week. Bond yields in Japan have continued to rise on the expectation of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, and in Canada after a sharp fall in the unemployment rate on Friday. 

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed what many other economies haven’t. We have brought down inflation without driving the economy into recession. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a direct contrast to the RBNZ approach, which was to hit the economy hard, and slower demand would mean there was lots of spare capacity, making it easier for the economy to re-establish itself. The RBA approach has been much more softly-softly, which means jobs have been maintained and growth has continued. The problem is, there’s much less spare capacity. If we see too much growth, then prices could rise, forcing the RBA to lift rates to slow things down. Is that where we are now? Can you slow the economy with just one rate rise? Sally talks to Phil about what could happen next.

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields rose in Australia and Japan yesterday and overnight. In Japan 10-year JGBs reached 1.94%, the highest level since 2007. NAB’s Skye Masters says it relates to the continued expectation of a rate hike by the BoJ, and the higher yields have created a buying opportunity for investors. Yields have risen in Australia as household spending for October came in higher than expecting, suggesting the RBA might set a hawkish tone to their next meeting, indicating a rate hike is coming sooner than many have been expecting.

Thursday 4th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs number came in weaker than expected. Normally, perhaps, people wouldn’t pay too much attention — they’re often wrong — but when it’s all you’ve got, it matters. It’s another reason for a rate cut by the Fed next week.Meanwhile, Aussie GDP also came in weaker than expected… though maybe strong in the right places. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the implications of that, and they decipher the latest global services PMIs and look ahead to the release of Australia’s trade balance this morning.

Wednesday 3rd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have a tiny bit more risk appetite today, which has helped push US equities higher and helped Bitcoin resume its rise to new horizons (perhaps). The Yen lost a large chunk of yesterday’s gains, but JGB yields remain high, alongside expectations for a BoJ rate hike. At home, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest GDP partials will do little to change the expectation for a 2.2% rise, year on year, a little higher than the RBA is forecasting. And Michelle Bullock fronts up to the senate economics committee.

Tuesday 2nd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how much global contagion have we seen from Japan’s bond sell off.Cryptocurrencies took a particularly big hit overnight, and US equities ended their rally, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing read. Today GDP partials for Australia and NZ’s terms of trade are amongst the highlights.