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The Global Peace Index 2024
In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown takes on the heavy subject of global peace—or the lack thereof—in 2024. The discussion opens with a grim statistic: conflict-related deaths in the first four months of the year have reached 47,000, potentially setting a record since the Rwandan genocide. Brown is joined by Thomas Morgan, who discusses the findings of the 18th Global Peace Index (GPI). Morgan explains the GPI's purpose and methodology, noting a general decline in global peacefulness over the past 16 years.
Morgan outlines the three domains of the GPI—safety and security, ongoing conflict, and militarisation—highlighting the technological changes and geopolitical shifts contributing to increased conflicts. He emphasises the rise of asymmetric warfare and the increased involvement of non-state actors. The discussion also touches on specific conflicts in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Gaza, Myanmar, and Haiti, illustrating the complex, multifaceted nature of modern conflicts.
Brown and Morgan also discuss the contrasting paths of El Salvador and Haiti regarding gang violence and governance, noting the former's controversial yet effective short-term strategies. They explore the balance between reducing violence and maintaining civil liberties, with Morgan asserting that long-term peace is typically achieved through democratic means rather than authoritarian measures.
Finally, the episode provides a detailed look at the top and bottom countries in the GPI, with Iceland, Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Singapore being the most peaceful, and Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine being the least. The UK and US are examined for their rankings and inherent issues, including violent crime and geopolitical involvement.
- "The overall trend of peacefulness is a negative one. We've seen a deterioration in the level of global peacefulness over the past 16 years." – Thomas Morgan
- "The rise of asymmetric warfare and new technologies like drones makes it easier for smaller states and insurgent groups to be involved in conflict." – Thomas Morgan
- "Conflicts now tend to fizzle out or become frozen, rather than ending decisively as they did in the past." – Thomas Morgan
- "El Salvador's approach to reducing violence through mass incarceration has been effective short-term, but the challenge is ensuring sustained peace." – Thomas Morgan
- "It's possible to achieve a certain amount of peace through authoritarian measures, but long-term peace is more likely in full democracies with respect for civil rights." – Thomas Morgan
For those interested in deeper insights, head over to Vision of Humanity and explore the comprehensive reports that Thomas Morgan mentioned. If you enjoy this podcast, consider supporting it on roifield.Substack.com or leaving a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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Election Showdowns & Budget Balancing Acts: U.S. on the Brink, U.K. on the Tightrope
01:00:02|In this episode of *Mid Atlantic*, host Roifield Brown assembles a dynamic panel to dissect two major political showdowns: the final week of the U.S. election and Labour’s landmark budget in the U.K. As Brown remarks, with tight swing-state races, all eyes are on pivotal battlegrounds where razor-thin margins could decide the outcome. Guests debate the atmospherics of campaign styles, contrasting Trump’s bombastic rallies with Kamala Harris’s grassroots approach, framed by the panel as a battle between populist grievance and Democratic pragmatism. Mike Donoghue provides the American perspective, calling the mood "squeaky bum time," while Dave Smith and Corey Bernard offer sharp critiques on both sides’ campaign strategies, debating whether Democrats risk losing due to overreliance on anti-Trump rhetoric.Shifting gears to Labour’s budget, which the Financial Times dubbed the largest tax increase in three decades, the conversation explores its potential to reshape Britain’s public spending, with core issues including public services, employer taxes, and social housing. While the budget signals a commitment to infrastructure and public welfare, Corey Bernard warns it might stifle small businesses, emphasizing the need for robust growth rather than short-term fixes. The panel touches on Britain's housing crisis, pointing to the lack of affordable options as a pressure point that could define Labour’s success in the next election.As the episode winds down, the panel makes predictions for Election Day, with most forecasting a win for Kamala Harris. A characteristically sardonic Brown urges America to "do the right thing" and avoid electing a "fascist," encapsulating the critical stakes of the election as seen from both sides of the Atlantic.Notable Quotes1. "It’s squeaky bum time here; we’re all pins and needles, no matter which side of the fence you're on." — Mike Donoghue2. "We’re at a place where racist jokes at rallies feel normalised. That’s how far down the rabbit hole we’ve gone." — Dave Smith3. "Asking voters to go out to vote with a spring in their step is all about Trumpism’s showbiz appeal." — Corey Bernard4. "Labour's budget tightrope walk is necessary, but tightrope walking doesn’t leave room for real change." — Corey Bernard5. "Housing touches every generation and wealth level—if Labour can’t deliver here, they’re going to face a reckoning." — Dave Smith ### Further Reading1. [Financial Times on Labour's Budget](https://www.ft.com)2. [U.S. Swing State Poll Tracker - FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com)3. [The Guardian - Analysis of Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy](https://www.theguardian.com)4. [Office of Budget Responsibility: U.K. Budget Analysis](https://obr.uk)5. [NY Times - America’s Evolving Electoral Demographics](https://www.nytimes.com)James Cleverley’s rising momentum and Lib Dem Conference Insights
42:30|In this episode of Mid Atlantic, Roifield Brown dives into the Conservative Party leadership race, breaking down the key moments from their recent conference in Birmingham. Joined by regular contributor Cory Bernard, they explore everything from James Cleverley’s rising momentum to Kemi Badenoch’s gaffes, Robert Jenrick’s Thatcher references, and the broader question of where the party goes from here.But that’s not all—we start the show with a voice notes from Steve O’Neil, who attended the Conservative conference and Lib Dem conferences. Steve gives us his take on the optimistic yet mellow mood at the Lib Dem gathering and how they’re positioning themselves for the future.Key Highlights:Lib Dem Conference Recap (Steve O’Neil):Optimism about the party’s rising profile, thanks to new select committee roles in Defra and Health.Emerging tensions around housing policy and Brexit, with some calling for a more pro-EU stance.The party’s identity crisis: will they align with Labour or attack them from the left?Conservative Leadership Race Analysis (Roifield & Cory):James Cleverley’s strong performance and his appeal to MPs and the public.Kemi Badenoch’s struggle with gaffes and reliance on culture wars rhetoric.Robert Jenrick’s "new Conservative" messaging, though lacking concrete substance.The broader question of whether the Conservatives can rebuild from their historic defeat, and the uncertain direction of their economic strategy.Hope, Hardship, and Heating Bills, US-UK Politics in Focus
46:49|This episode of *Mid Atlantic* brings together voices from both sides of the Atlantic to dissect political developments in the U.S. and the U.K. Host **Roifield Brown**, broadcasting from a rainy Birmingham, UK, leads a panel discussion with guests from Nevada, London, Los Angeles, and Liverpool. **Tonye Alltrade** shares her recent visit to the birthplace of democracy in Athens, reflecting on its enduring relevance. The conversation quickly pivots to U.S. politics, with an analysis of Kamala Harris's recent economic push, and a lively discussion of Trump’s policies and the upcoming Waltz vs. Vance debate. Mike Donahue critiques Trump’s economic misunderstanding, while Z Cohen Sanchez highlights how Harris is struggling to wrestle the narrative away from Trump’s populist rhetoric.The conversation then turns to the U.K., where **Steve O’Neill** provides insight into the Labour Party Conference, and how Keir Starmer’s campaign, with its message of competence over hope, contrasts with Harris's style. They also discuss the recent announcement on winter fuel payments, which sparked significant debate. Steve explains the Labour government’s decision to reduce the payments, arguing that the triple lock on pensions still protects the poorest. However, **Tonye Alltrade** and others express concerns about how the policy has been received, especially its impact on pensioners who are already struggling with rising living costs. Mike Donahue adds that the political handling of the issue has been clumsy, giving the opposition an easy line of attack.The episode wraps up with a deep dive into the Windrush scandal and the slow compensation process for its victims, with **Roifield Brown** voicing his frustration over the government's lack of accountability.**Quotes:**1. "We need to make sure we have an educated populace to keep democracy going." – **Tonye Alltrade**2. "It’s just when will this national nightmare [Trump] come to an end?" – **Mike Donahue**3. "Labour’s campaign is all about rolling up sleeves, not hope." – **Steve O’Neill**4. "We deliberately slow-rolled this. It makes me disgusted to be British." – **Roifield Brown** on the Windrush scandal.5. "Young people can’t buy homes, and one in five pensioners are millionaires. Something has to give." – **Tonye Alltrade****Further Reading:**- [Windrush scandal report overview](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/windrush-scandal-report)- [Labour Party Conference analysis](https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/labour-conference)- [Winter fuel payment policy](https://www.bbc.com/news/politics-winter-fuel-payments)Kamala's Masterclass as Trump Stumbles
46:51|In this episode, host Roifield Brown leads a lively panel discussion on the recent debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The panel, featuring Denise Hamilton, Logan Phillips, Aram Fischer, Michael Donahue, Dave Smith, and Tonye Altrade, analyzes Harris’s strong performance, which many viewed as a decisive victory that left Trump on the defensive. Despite Harris's commanding presence, the polls haven't shifted dramatically, leading to a deeper conversation on the reliability of early polling and the enduring stability of Trump’s base.The group dissects Harris’s strategy of contrasting substantive policy points with sharp jabs at Trump, which effectively kept him off-balance throughout the debate. They also explore the broader implications of the debate for key swing states like Pennsylvania, where viewership was notably high. Despite some skepticism from panelist Logan Phillips, who cautions that Trump's support remains more resilient than expected, others argue that Harris's poised approach might gradually erode Trump’s appeal, particularly among undecided voters and key demographics.Quotes from the Episode:1. "Kamala’s basic pattern was, say something substantive about policy, then close with a jab that made Trump want to punch her." — Aram Fischer2. "I want a leader that does their homework, that cares enough about me to prepare." — Denise Hamilton3. "Kamala just got lucky enough that it came up on the debate stage. He's been saying some wild stuff." — Logan Phillips4. "We have got to get out of this post-truth season of how we interact with each other in America." — Denise Hamilton5. "For whatever reason, Trump does not have the same effect on people. And I don't think you're going to see his supporters running for the hills after that debate performance." — Logan PhillipsKamala "feels" like a change and Jenrick leads
48:44|In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown and his panel of experts delve into the latest political developments on both sides of the Atlantic. On the UK front, the Conservative Party leadership race heats up as Robert Jenrick takes the lead, with Priti Patel bowing out. The discussion centers on the ideological divides within the Tory party and what Jenrick’s lead might mean for the future of the Conservatives. The panel questions whether the party has learned anything from its recent defeats or if it remains stuck in its old ways.Across the Atlantic, the focus shifts to the U.S. election, where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are set to face off in a pivotal debate. The conversation explores Harris’s polling numbers, fundraising efforts, and her centrist appeal that seems to resonate despite the lack of a primary campaign. With disinformation playing a significant role, the panel also considers the broader implications of fake news, the power of social media, and the challenges of regulating these platforms in a democratic context.Key QuotesLogan Phillips: “Kamala Harris’s campaign is trying to show she’s empathetic, that she’s tough, and that she means business now. Could the lack of policy focus hurt her? Only because the media is so obsessed with it.”Jane Mote: “The Conservative Party is struggling to find its place in politics, but we can’t just discount them as odd. They still command a large part of the vote.”Cory Bernard: “Kamala feels like a change candidate, but she’s an insider. She’s all things to everybody, which might be an advantage.”Roifield Brown: “We’re getting politicians who are all veneer with no policy substance, and it’s utterly bad for both sides of the pond.”Cory Bernard: “The Tory party is in shock and disarray. There’s no energy, it’s just going to be status quo until the next reckoning.”Further ReadingThe Guardian: Tory Leadership RaceThe New York Times: Kamala Harris’s Campaign StrategyBBC News: Disinformation in the US ElectionsPalestine's Struggle, Global Politics and Regional Power Shifts with Mouin Rabbani
41:50|In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown engages in a profound discussion with Mouin Rabbani, a renowned expert on Middle Eastern affairs, focusing on the Palestinian struggle and its intricate position within the evolving dynamics of the Middle East. Rabbani offers a comprehensive analysis of Israel's intensified military actions in Gaza and the broader regional implications, highlighting the potential for an all-out regional war involving various actors like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran.Rabbani sheds light on the complexities within the Palestinian political landscape, particularly the disintegration of Fatah and the weakening of Mahmoud Abbas's leadership. He argues that this internal division has hindered the Palestinian cause on the global stage, leaving a void where a strong, unified voice could have garnered more substantial international support.The conversation also touches on the critical role of international diplomacy, especially the impact of U.S. politics on the Middle East. Rabbani suggests that while U.S. support for Israel remains unwavering, the political landscape is slowly shifting, with growing public and political scrutiny of Israel's actions. The episode concludes with a sobering reflection on the future of the Palestinian state, acknowledging the immense challenges ahead but also hinting at the possibility of a turning point in the ongoing struggle for sovereignty.Key Quotes:"Israel has transformed itself into a rogue state, a pariah state, a genocidal regime in the eyes of much of Western public opinion.""The disintegration of Fatah has left the Palestinian cause without a strong, unified voice on the global stage.""We may now be closer to the beginning of the end than we were a year ago, but this struggle requires time, organization, and commitment.""Mahmoud Abbas's leadership has become a significant obstacle to Palestinian national unity.""Biden's unconditional support for Israel has reached a level of fanatic devotion, surpassing even his predecessors."Further Reading:Jadaliyya: For more in-depth analysis and writings by Mouin Rabbani.Feel free to explore these resources for a deeper understanding of the issues discussed in thisKamala Harris, and the New Face of American Leadership
41:15|In this episode of Mid Atlantic, Roifield Brown leads a deep discussion with an expert panel on two major developments: the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the suspension of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s presidential campaign. With voices spanning from Texas to the UK, the panel provides a well-rounded analysis of these pivotal moments in U.S. politics.The panel explores the significance of Kamala Harris's rise as the Democratic presidential nominee, marking a historic moment for both women and people of color. Denise Hamilton underscores the flawless execution of the DNC, comparing it to the Avengers assembling—a moment of unity and strength for the Democratic Party. The convention is lauded for its inclusivity and intentional messaging, aiming to connect with a diverse electorate. Denise emphasizes the importance of this moment, not just as a political milestone, but as a turning point in American leadership.The panel delves into the standout moments from the DNC, particularly the speeches delivered by Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, and Barack Obama. Leah Brown reflects on the emotional resonance of Harris's speech, especially for African American women, and how it redefines what is possible in American politics. Denise and Iris Shapiro discuss the Obama speeches, noting their impact on the audience and how they contrast sharply with the rhetoric from the Republican side. The humor and humanity in these speeches, especially Barack Obama’s jabs at Donald Trump, are highlighted as effective tools in engaging the electorate.The conversation also covers the generational shift within the Democratic Party. Roifield Brown and the panelists discuss the symbolic passing of the torch from figures like Hillary Clinton to Kamala Harris, marking a new era for the party. Leah Brown notes the importance of this transition, not just in terms of age, but in the approaches and policies that resonate with younger voters. There is a consensus that while Kamala Harris represents continuity in some respects, she also embodies the change that many Democrats are eager for.The issue of reproductive rights is identified as a key battleground in the upcoming election. Denise Hamilton asserts that beyond just female reproductive rights, there is a broader struggle for personal freedom against increasingly restrictive policies from the Republican side. The panel agrees that this will be a central issue for the Democrats, particularly as they appeal to women and younger voters who are deeply concerned about their autonomy and rights under a potential Republican administration.The episode concludes with reflections on the challenges ahead for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. While there is significant excitement and momentum, the panel acknowledges the need for clear policy positions and continued engagement with voters. The upcoming debates, particularly between Harris and Donald Trump, are anticipated to be critical in shaping the final stretch of the election.Five Notable Quotes:Denise Hamilton: "I’ve been swimming in a putrid sea of mediocrity for the last few years, and I think we really turned the page of expecting excellence."Logan Phillips: "It’s going to be hard to make Kamala Harris look weak. Very hard."Iris Shapiro: "Kamala Harris’s nomination isn’t just a relief; it’s a surge of excitement that’s going to carry us to November."Leah Brown: "Kamala Harris has reoriented and de-weaponized what it means to aspire to the highest office with grace, poise, and intelligence."Roifield Brown: "For all of this sense of hope and joy, I don’t know what new Kamala Harris is truly saying."Battleground Shifts: Kamala's Surge and UK's Economic Upswing
49:07|In this week's episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown and his panel of political experts—Zee Cohen Sanchez, Logan Phillips, Corey Bernard, Aram Fisher, and Olissa Jones—dive into the chaotic landscape of U.S. and U.K. politics. On the U.S. side, the focus is on the latest struggles of Donald Trump's campaign as Kamala Harris gains momentum in the race for the presidency. The discussion centers on Harris's unexpected surge in key battleground states, her consolidation of the Democratic base, and the strategic shifts within the Trump campaign. The panel dissects the potential impact of RFK Jr.'s candidacy on the election and the challenges Trump faces in maintaining his support.Switching gears to the U.K., the episode explores the economic aftermath of 14 years of Tory rule and how Labour, under Keir Starmer, is navigating the current political climate. The conversation covers the surprising timing of Rishi Sunak’s election call, the challenges facing the Labour government as they manage public expectations, and the subdued Tory leadership race. The pundits debate the impact of Starmer’s perceived lack of bold vision and the struggles of the Conservative Party to capture public interest in their leadership contest.The episode also takes a lighter turn with a lively discussion about the Olympics. Roifield and the panelists express mixed feelings about the inclusion of new sports like breakdancing and skateboarding in the Olympic Games. While some appreciate the evolution of the games to include modern sports that resonate with younger audiences, others argue that sports requiring subjective judging lack the clear, objective criteria that define traditional Olympic competitions. The conversation reflects on the changing nature of the Olympics and whether the event has lost some of its magic and global appeal.Five Notable QuotesLogan Phillips: "Kamala Harris has taken the lead in the polling... the question is whether the electoral map will mirror 2020 or if we're witnessing a fundamental shift."Zee Cohen Sanchez: "Kamala Harris has become part of pop culture. That's huge for young voters, but there's still a fear—RFK could be the wild card."Corey Bernard: "Keir Starmer is lucky, but only because Rishi Sunak made the strategic blunder of calling an early election."Aram Fisher: "Tim Walz is the perfect response to MAGA politics—he's mainstream enough to appeal to the center while throwing punches when needed."Olissa Jones: "The entire British political system is lacking credible, charismatic figures at this point in time—it's like we're tinkering around the edges."England Riots
01:05:54|In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown navigates the disturbing riots sweeping across England. Joined by Leah Brown in Broadstairs, Jane Mote in Sussex, Tonye Altrade in London, and Michael Donoghue in Los Angeles, the discussion dives into the roots of this turmoil sparked by the tragic killing of three young girls in Southport. With over 400 arrests and violence spreading from London to Belfast, the panel examines the factors driving this unrest, from misinformation and far-right agitation to systemic failures and political rhetoric.Key Topics:Roots of the Riots: Jane Mote highlights the impact of long-standing government neglect, far-right agitation, and inflammatory political rhetoric on the current crisis.Role of Social Media: Michael Donoghue discusses the role of social media in amplifying misinformation, while Leah Brown emphasizes the importance of responsibility and upholding the truth.Cultural and Historical Context: Roifield Brown and the panel reflect on the historical context of race relations in the UK, the visible changes in communities, and the fear of difference.Government Response: The response from Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is scrutinized, with calls for stronger leadership and accountability.Personal Experiences: Tonye Altrade shares her perspective as a relatively recent immigrant and the palpable fear within minority communities.Relevant Quotes:"The violence has spread to numerous cities from London to Belfast, with over 400 arrests so far." - Roifield Brown"We've had 14 years of a Tory government that's worn down the justice system and has played off this ugly talk." - Jane Mote"I don't think you can make any statements along those lines without treading perilously close to restricting freedom of speech." - Michael Donoghue"I think one of our obligations is to uphold the rule of law." - Leah Brown"We need to fortify the state's defenses against this kind of misinformation campaigns." - Tonye Altrade