Share

MBP Intelligence Briefing
COMPLIMENTARY FULL EPISODE - MBP Ep 13: Intelligence Briefing – Venezuela, Hemispheric Dominance, and What It Means for Canada with Rory Johnston
In this first of 2026 episode, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips are joined by Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, University of Toronto’s Munk School, and host of The Oil Ground Up Podcast to unpack the shock U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ripple effects for Canada.
The conversation focuses on the Canadian angle: what this episode signals about U.S. strategy and instability risk, how Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian Select pricing, what it means for TMX and Asia-bound exports, and why the case for additional Canadian egress and demand diversification is strengthening.
In this episode, they discuss:
• What the U.S. operation in Venezuela signals about American “hemispheric dominance,” and the destabilization risks if there is no credible post-operation plan
• The split between strategic rhetoric and resource mercantilism, and why “regime change” framing may not match reality on the ground
• How sanctions, blockades, and forced trade flows could reshape heavy crude dynamics and WCS differentia
• What the Venezuela shock could mean for TMX utilization, China demand, and Canada’s evolving export geography
• The pipeline policy implications for Canada: westbound egress, energy security, and the federal–provincial bargaining terrain in a weaker price environment
Key Takeaways
On U.S. Strategy, Regime Outcomes, and Instability Risk
• WOODFINDEN: The execution may have been “clinical,” but the absence of a coherent follow-through plan elevates risks of prolonged instability and spillover effects (including migration and regional disruption)
• MEREDITH: The intervention is notable for how openly transactional it is—less “democracy promotion,” more direct resource monetization and control over proceeds
• PHILLIPS: Diaspora expectations and political messaging can diverge sharply from realities on the ground, especially if elections and institutional reform are not central to the plan
On Venezuela’s Oil Sector and the Limits of a Quick Production Surge
• JOHNSTON: Venezuela has massive reserves, but above-ground constraints are severe—human capital loss, decayed infrastructure, and unattractive fiscal terms make rapid rehabilitation highly uncertain
• JOHNSTON: The “low-hanging fruit” is not new production; it is simply allowing blocked barrels to flow—exports can rebound faster than capacity can be rebuilt
• JOHNSTON: Large-scale restoration is a multi-year, tens-of-billions proposition, and majors will be hesitant absent credible stability, durable rules, and risk-adjusted returns
On WCS Differentials and Canada’s Competitive Exposure
• JOHNSTON: If Venezuelan barrels resume flowing primarily to China, the immediate impact on WCS at Houston should be limited; the pressure intensifies if barrels are forced into the U.S. Gulf Coast to compete directly with Canadian heavy
• JOHNSTON: Market narratives have likely over-shot—Canada has historically competed with Venezuelan heavy; the bigger Canadian vulnerability is policy/egress constraints rather than “existential” competition
• PHILLIPS: In a softer market, even modest widening in heavy differentials can translate into material public-revenue hits, amplifying fiscal stress in resource-dependent provinces
Rory Johnston’s Contact Details:
Twitter: x.com/Rory_Johnston
Web: www.commoditycontext.com (www.commoditycontext.com/)
Contributor - Venezuelan Article of Interest: thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-energy/trump-venezuela-oil-maduro/
More episodes
View all episodes

25. Ep 25 MBP Intelligence Briefing: NDP Leadership Fallout, Labour Strategy, and Political Realignment (Free Version)
14:17||Season 1, Ep. 25The MBP Intelligence Briefing delivers exclusive, insider insight into the policies, decisions, and dynamics shaping Canada’s political and economic landscape.Hosted by Ben Woodfinden, Director of MBP Intelligence and Senior Advisor at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, the series features weekly conversations with MBP partners Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips, along with a monthly guest bringing fresh perspective from business, media, or public policy.Listeners can expect a mix of roundtable discussions unpacking the week’s biggest developments and in-depth interviews exploring emerging ideas and long-term trends. From fiscal outlooks and trade strategy to the forces influencing governance, regulation, and public life, each episode delivers context and clarity rooted in real experience inside government, policy, and politics.This is your exclusive MBP Intelligence Briefing, context, clarity, and strategy for Canada’s evolving political economy.You’re listening to the first 10 minutes of this week’s episode, the full one-hour roundtable is now available exclusively to members of MBP Intelligence.Want the Full Episode?Become a member to unlock:The full, ad-free weekly MBP Intelligence Briefing podcast (1-hour roundtable)Exclusive reports, policy briefings, and member newslettersInvitations to private discussions and eventsAccess to a growing community of policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers shaping the national conversationJoin MBP Intelligence here: https://mbpolicy.com/intelligence/
24. Ep 24 MBP Intelligence Briefing: Budgets, Poilievre on Rogan, and the Global Oil Shock (Free Version)
12:01||Season 1, Ep. 24In this week’s MBP Intelligence Briefing, Ben Woodfinden, Ken Boessenkool, and Shannon Phillips discuss the latest provincial budgets, Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast, and the global economic risks emerging from the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. They break down what the Manitoba and Ontario budgets reveal about political strategy, how long-form media is changing political communication, and why rising oil and energy prices could have major consequences for Canada’s economy.In this episode, they discuss· Manitoba’s budget focused heavily on affordability, including tax relief on groceries and homeowner credits, as the government prepares for a likely election. · Ontario’s upcoming budget is expected to prioritize housing affordability, deficit management, and tariff-related economic pressure. · Pierre Poilievre’s Joe Rogan interview highlights the growing importance of long-form media and podcast audiences in modern politics. · The ongoing Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict is pushing up oil, gas, fertilizer, and shipping costs, with ripple effects across the global economy. · Higher energy prices may benefit resource-producing provinces but could increase inflation and economic pressure across Canada.On the Manitoba budget and affordability politics· Phillips: The government has picked affordability as the central political issue and is designing policy to match what voters say they need most. · Boessenkool: Wab Kinew is effective at presenting policy without sounding ideological, which makes his approach appealing to a broad audience. · Woodfinden: The budget reads like an election-ready document focused on groceries, taxes, and cost-of-living relief.On the Ontario budget and housing policy· Woodfinden: Removing HST on new homes could help affordability and encourage construction, but taxes remain a major cost in housing. · Boessenkool: Ontario faces pressure from tariffs, rising energy prices, and slow growth, making fiscal choices more difficult. · Phillips: Opposition parties still lack a clear economic development strategy, which gives the government political room.On Poilievre, podcasts, and long-form politics· Phillips: Long-form interviews allow politicians to build trust and show personality in ways traditional media rarely allows. · Boessenkool: The Rogan appearance reached a specific audience, while clips from the interview shaped broader public perception. · Woodfinden: Political communication is shifting from short soundbites to long conversations, especially through podcasts and online media.On the Iran conflict and global economic risks· Boessenkool: Oil markets assume the conflict will calm down, but that depends on decisions by multiple governments that may not want to de-escalate. · Woodfinden: The Strait of Hormuz disruption affects oil, gas, fertilizer, and supply chains, not just energy prices. · Phillips: Higher oil prices could boost provincial revenues in Canada, but inflation and global instability could offset those gains.On the Canadian political impact· Phillips: Energy price spikes could affect provincial politics, especially in resource-producing regions. · Boessenkool: Economic shocks often expose regional differences inside Canada. · Woodfinden: Canada’s stability makes its resources more valuable in uncertain global markets.Youtube Credits: CBC News, CTV News, Global News, Bloomberg Television, CNBC, Reuters, Motion Array, balcony et-al, Videoscape, Exploring Stunning Landscapes From Above
23. Ep 23 MBP Intelligence Briefing: CUSMA Review, Trump Tariffs, and Canada’s Trade Strategy (Free Version)
13:54||Season 1, Ep. 23The MBP Intelligence Briefing delivers exclusive, insider insight into the policies, decisions, and dynamics shaping Canada’s political and economic landscape.Hosted by Ben Woodfinden, Director of MBP Intelligence and Senior Advisor at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, the series features weekly conversations with MBP partners Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips, along with a monthly guest bringing fresh perspective from business, media, or public policy.Listeners can expect a mix of roundtable discussions unpacking the week’s biggest developments and in-depth interviews exploring emerging ideas and long-term trends. From fiscal outlooks and trade strategy to the forces influencing governance, regulation, and public life, each episode delivers context and clarity rooted in real experience inside government, policy, and politics.This is your exclusive MBP Intelligence Briefing, context, clarity, and strategy for Canada’s evolving political economy.You’re listening to the first 10 minutes of this week’s episode, the full one-hour roundtable is now available exclusively to members of MBP Intelligence.Want the Full Episode?Become a member to unlock:The full, ad-free weekly MBP Intelligence Briefing podcast (1-hour roundtable)Exclusive reports, policy briefings, and member newslettersInvitations to private discussions and eventsAccess to a growing community of policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers shaping the national conversationJoin MBP Intelligence here: https://mbpolicy.com/intelligence/
22. Ep 22 MBP Intelligence Briefing: Parliament’s New Math, the Iran Oil Shock, and Carney’s Civil Service Reset (Free Version)
14:35||Season 1, Ep. 22The MBP Intelligence Briefing delivers exclusive, insider insight into the policies, decisions, and dynamics shaping Canada’s political and economic landscape.Hosted by Ben Woodfinden, Director of MBP Intelligence and Senior Advisor at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, the series features weekly conversations with MBP partners Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips, along with a monthly guest bringing fresh perspective from business, media, or public policy.Listeners can expect a mix of roundtable discussions unpacking the week’s biggest developments and in-depth interviews exploring emerging ideas and long-term trends. From fiscal outlooks and trade strategy to the forces influencing governance, regulation, and public life, each episode delivers context and clarity rooted in real experience inside government, policy, and politics.This is your exclusive MBP Intelligence Briefing, context, clarity, and strategy for Canada’s evolving political economy.You’re listening to the first 10 minutes of this week’s episode, the full one-hour roundtable is now available exclusively to members of MBP Intelligence.Want the Full Episode?Become a member to unlock:The full, ad-free weekly MBP Intelligence Briefing podcast (1-hour roundtable)Exclusive reports, policy briefings, and member newslettersInvitations to private discussions and eventsAccess to a growing community of policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers shaping the national conversationJoin MBP Intelligence here: https://mbpolicy.com/intelligence/
21. Ep 21 MBP Intelligence Briefing: Carney’s Indo-Pacific Push, Poilievre’s European Pitch, and Alberta’s Fiscal Crossroads (Free Version)
12:23||Season 1, Ep. 21The MBP Intelligence Briefing delivers exclusive, insider insight into the policies, decisions, and dynamics shaping Canada’s political and economic landscape.Hosted by Ben Woodfinden, Director of MBP Intelligence and Senior Advisor at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, the series features weekly conversations with MBP partners Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips, along with a monthly guest bringing fresh perspective from business, media, or public policy.Listeners can expect a mix of roundtable discussions unpacking the week’s biggest developments and in-depth interviews exploring emerging ideas and long-term trends. From fiscal outlooks and trade strategy to the forces influencing governance, regulation, and public life, each episode delivers context and clarity rooted in real experience inside government, policy, and politics.This is your exclusive MBP Intelligence Briefing, context, clarity, and strategy for Canada’s evolving political economy.You’re listening to the first 10 minutes of this week’s episode, the full one-hour roundtable is now available exclusively to members of MBP Intelligence.Want the Full Episode?Become a member to unlock:The full, ad-free weekly MBP Intelligence Briefing podcast (1-hour roundtable)Exclusive reports, policy briefings, and member newslettersInvitations to private discussions and eventsAccess to a growing community of policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers shaping the national conversationJoin MBP Intelligence here: https://mbpolicy.com/intelligence/
20. COMPLIMENTARY FULL EPISODE - MBP Ep 20: Intelligence Roundtable - Progressive Economics in the Carney Era: Poverty Reduction, EI vs CERB, the Care Economy, and Industrial Strategy
56:42||Season 1, Ep. 20Ep 20 MBP Intelligence Briefing – Progressive Economics in the Carney Era: Poverty Reduction, EI vs CERB, the Care Economy, and Industrial StrategyIn this week’s MBP Intelligence Briefing, Shannon Phillips and Tyler Meredith are joined by economist Armine Yalnizyan - Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers, for a wide-ranging conversation on what Canada gained in the Trudeau years, what’s at risk (or stalled) under the Carney government, and what a genuinely “progressive” industrial strategy would prioritize—especially the care economy, ownership, and the future of work in an AI- and services-heavy country. In this episode, they discuss· Meredith: The most consequential legacy of the Trudeau years was poverty reduction, driven in large part by the Canada Child Benefit alongside other targeted transfers.· Yalnizyan: CERB was globally unusual and highly effective, allowing people to stay home safely and supporting a rapid economic rebound.· Meredith: Pre-pandemic labour market tightening created more inclusive job gains for women, racialized workers, and people with disabilities.On Trudeau-era legacy: Poverty, labour markets, pandemic response· Meredith: Poverty fell significantly during the Trudeau era, with the CCB accounting for a major share of measurable gains.· Meredith: Strong pre-COVID labour markets pulled historically sidelined workers into better employment outcomes.· Yalnizyan: Pandemic supports like CERB stabilized households in ways traditional social insurance was never designed to do.On resilience now: EI, coverage gaps, and economic shocks· Meredith: Avoiding recession so far has mattered enormously because many households cannot meaningfully survive on EI alone.· Meredith: Canada needs modernized labour market institutions that reflect gig work, uneven hours, and technological disruption.· Yalnizyan: EI is social insurance; guaranteeing people don’t become destitute is a different policy objective and requires different tools.On the care economy: Guardrails and industrial strategy· Yalnizyan: Care is not a residual sector — it is one of the largest engines of employment and GDP in Canada.· Yalnizyan: Without regulatory guardrails, private equity will move quickly into publicly subsidized care sectors and extract value offshore.· Yalnizyan: A real care strategy must include workforce recruitment, retention, skill ladders, and immigration pathways to stabilize the sector.On industrial strategy: Investment, AI, and ownership· Yalnizyan: An investment-first strategy without conditions risks Canada becoming economically dependent while wrapped in a Canadian flag.· Meredith: Canada’s services-heavy economy makes it uniquely exposed to AI disruption and requires deliberate skills and commercialization strategy.On pensions, power, and worker agency· Yalnizyan: Unions should push harder for governance — trustee seats and deeper literacy — because today’s pension investment model can create a dynamic of “preparing tomorrow’s retirees by squeezing today’s workers.”· Meredith: “Fiduciary” language can become a shield against accountability, allocation decisions, fees, and public-purpose alignment, even though pension wealth is a strategic national asset if governed transparently.· Yalnizyan: Canada once deployed CPP savings directly into municipal infrastructure and housing; liberalized post-2000 rules expanded offshore investing and weakened the link between collective savings and domestic public purpose.Armine Yalnizyan – Atkinson Fellow on the Future of WorkersWebsite: https://atkinsonfoundation.ca/atkinson-fellows/atkinson-fellow-on-the-future-of-workers/LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/armine-yalnizyan-a32b42264Youtube Credits: CBC News, CTV News, Global News, 4K Films By Adnan, Videoscape, Pierre Poilievre, balcony et-al, Luis Vega, Shape Properties, GommeBlog, Exploring Stunning Landscapes From Above, Motion Array
19. MBP Ep 19: Intelligence Briefing – B.C.’s Budget 2026, Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy, and the Supreme Court Tariff Shock (Free Version)
16:09||Season 1, Ep. 19The MBP Intelligence Briefing delivers exclusive, insider insight into the policies, decisions, and dynamics shaping Canada’s political and economic landscape.Hosted by Ben Woodfinden, Director of MBP Intelligence and Senior Advisor at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, the series features weekly conversations with MBP partners Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips, along with a monthly guest bringing fresh perspective from business, media, or public policy.Listeners can expect a mix of roundtable discussions unpacking the week’s biggest developments and in-depth interviews exploring emerging ideas and long-term trends. From fiscal outlooks and trade strategy to the forces influencing governance, regulation, and public life, each episode delivers context and clarity rooted in real experience inside government, policy, and politics.This is your exclusive MBP Intelligence Briefing, context, clarity, and strategy for Canada’s evolving political economy.You’re listening to the first 10 minutes of this week’s episode, the full one-hour roundtable is now available exclusively to members of MBP Intelligence.Want the Full Episode?Become a member to unlock:The full, ad-free weekly MBP Intelligence Briefing podcast (1-hour roundtable)Exclusive reports, policy briefings, and member newslettersInvitations to private discussions and eventsAccess to a growing community of policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers shaping the national conversationJoin MBP Intelligence here: https://mbpolicy.com/intelligence/
18. MBP Ep 18: Intelligence Briefing – Canada’s AI Strategy, Sovereignty, and the Commercialization Crossroads (Free Version)
11:33||Season 1, Ep. 18The MBP Intelligence Briefing delivers exclusive, insider insight into the policies, decisions, and dynamics shaping Canada’s political and economic landscape.Hosted by Ben Woodfinden, Director of MBP Intelligence and Senior Advisor at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, the series features weekly conversations with MBP partners Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips, along with a monthly guest bringing fresh perspective from business, media, or public policy.Listeners can expect a mix of roundtable discussions unpacking the week’s biggest developments and in-depth interviews exploring emerging ideas and long-term trends. From fiscal outlooks and trade strategy to the forces influencing governance, regulation, and public life, each episode delivers context and clarity rooted in real experience inside government, policy, and politics.This is your exclusive MBP Intelligence Briefing, context, clarity, and strategy for Canada’s evolving political economy.You’re listening to the first 10 minutes of this week’s episode, the full one-hour roundtable is now available exclusively to members of MBP Intelligence.Want the Full Episode?Become a member to unlock:The full, ad-free weekly MBP Intelligence Briefing podcast (1-hour roundtable)Exclusive reports, policy briefings, and member newslettersInvitations to private discussions and eventsAccess to a growing community of policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers shaping the national conversationJoin MBP Intelligence here: https://mbpolicy.com/intelligence/
17. MBP Ep 17: Intelligence Briefing – Budget Season, Ontario’s Auto Anxiety, BC’s Debt Spike, and Ottawa’s Exchange Fund Debate (Free Version)
11:15||Season 1, Ep. 17The MBP Intelligence Briefing delivers exclusive, insider insight into the policies, decisions, and dynamics shaping Canada’s political and economic landscape.Hosted by Ben Woodfinden, Director of MBP Intelligence and Senior Advisor at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, the series features weekly conversations with MBP partners Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips, along with a monthly guest bringing fresh perspective from business, media, or public policy.Listeners can expect a mix of roundtable discussions unpacking the week’s biggest developments and in-depth interviews exploring emerging ideas and long-term trends. From fiscal outlooks and trade strategy to the forces influencing governance, regulation, and public life, each episode delivers context and clarity rooted in real experience inside government, policy, and politics.This is your exclusive MBP Intelligence Briefing, context, clarity, and strategy for Canada’s evolving political economy.You’re listening to the first 10 minutes of this week’s episode, the full one-hour roundtable is now available exclusively to members of MBP Intelligence.Want the Full Episode?Become a member to unlock:The full, ad-free weekly MBP Intelligence Briefing podcast (1-hour roundtable)Exclusive reports, policy briefings, and member newslettersInvitations to private discussions and eventsAccess to a growing community of policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers shaping the national conversationJoin MBP Intelligence here: https://mbpolicy.com/intelligence/