MBP Intelligence Briefing

In this year-end episode, Ben Woodfinden is joined by Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips for a wide-ranging policy roundtable reflecting on the most consequential, overlooked, and misguided policy developments of 2025, alongside a forward-looking discussion of what to watch in 2026.The conversation focuses on structural policy shifts across fiscal rules, defence spending, climate policy, healthcare reform, democratic institutions, and housing. The episode also examines how geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to the United States, is reshaping Canada’s fiscal, monetary, and defence posture.This marks the final episode of 2025, with the show returning in early January 2026.In this episode, they discuss:• The most consequential policy shifts of 2025 across fiscal rules, climate, defence, and housing• How geopolitical uncertainty reshaped Canada’s defence spending and fiscal posture• The evolving role of democratic institutions, including the Senate and referendum politics• Diverging provincial approaches to healthcare reform and federal constraints• What policy risks and opportunities to watch as Canada enters 2026Key TakeawaysOn the Most Significant Policy Developments of 2025• PHILLIPS: Continuity under a Liberal government preserved health, social, and childcare programs despite expectations of major change• MEREDITH: Separating operating and capital spending permanently expands federal fiscal capacity• BOESSENKOOL: Ending the consumer carbon tax marks a major retreat from market-based climate policy• WOODFINDEN: Canada’s rapid shift toward higher defence spending represents a structural policy realignmentOn Defence Spending, Fiscal Rules, and Political Alignment• WOODFINDEN: Defence spending has moved from political taboo to broad consensus• MEREDITH: New fiscal rules have reduced concern about deficits and debt financing• PHILLIPS: Defence budgets create opportunities for workforce development beyond procurement• BOESSENKOOL: Political fragmentation has lowered resistance to large-scale defence investmentOn the Senate and Democratic Institutions• BOESSENKOOL: Moving away from a technocratic Senate could significantly alter governance• MEREDITH: An independent Senate has increased scrutiny but slowed legislation• WOODFINDEN: The Senate’s real test may come under a future Conservative government• PHILLIPS: Civil society has a role in shaping how partisanship functions in democratic institutionsOn the “Worst” or Most Misguided Policy Developments• MEREDITH: Ontario’s symbolic megaprojects reflect a lack of economic strategy• BOESSENKOOL: Alberta’s lowered thresholds for recall and referendums empowered destabilizing actors• PHILLIPS: Book bans and separation referendums highlighted symbolic and counterproductive policymaking• WOODFINDEN: Canada’s repeated transit failures reveal systemic infrastructure weaknessesOn Looking Ahead to 2026• WOODFINDEN: Co-hosting the FIFA World Cup risks high public costs for limited return• MEREDITH: U.S. monetary policy leadership changes could destabilize global markets• BOESSENKOOL: Provinces will increasingly diverge on healthcare reform• MEREDITH: The federal government is likely to defend the Canada Health Act if private payer models expandOn Underrated Policy Developments• MEREDITH: Automatic benefits enrollment simplifies access and improves delivery• PHILLIPS: Crackdowns on fraudulent career colleges protect workers and students• BOESSENKOOL: The personal support worker tax credit functions as a targeted wage subsidy• WOODFINDEN: Housing outcomes are increasingly diverging by city and regionYouTube Video Credits: CBC News, CTV News, Global News, 4K Films By Adnan, Videoscape, Pierre Poilievre, balcony et-al, Luis Vega, Shape Properties, GommeBlog, Exploring Stunning Landscapes From Above, Motion Array