Share

cover art for Rational Security: The "Ukraine in the Membrane" Edition

The Lawfare Podcast

Rational Security: The "Ukraine in the Membrane" Edition

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, for an episode committed to one big topic: what Trump’s return to the White House might mean for Ukraine. They tackled the issue in three parts:

  • “What Condition My Attrition Is In.” By most accounts, after more than two years of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine has come to look very much like a war of attrition. How do Ukrainians feel about the state of the conflict and the prospects looking forward? What steps are the outgoing Biden administration taking to change the calculus—and what impact might they still have, if any?
  • “New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.” Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises a sea change in how the United States has approached the conflict in Ukraine. What do his early national security appointments—and engagements with, among others, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—tell us about his plans? And where do they seem likely to lead?
  • “Flipping the Board.” Trump’s election—and whatever outcome he is able to bring about in Ukraine—has the potential to reset the strategic environment in Europe (and the U.S. strategic relationship with Russia) more generally. What might regional security—and security for Ukraine specifically—look like by 2028?

For object lessons, Nastya recommended Catherine Belton’s new book, “Putin’s People,” on the return and rise to power of the KGB. Eric gave a belated endorsement for the Oscar-winning South Korean film “Parasite,” and urged folks to watch it as a celebration of the democratic resilience South Korea demonstrated this week. Scott plugged the holiday variety show he was attending that evening and urged listeners to welcome the season with Aimee Mann’s “One More Drifter in the Snow.” And Francis recommended GeoGuessr, the geolocation game that has taken the KI newsroom by storm.

Rational Security will be saying goodbye to 2024 in its traditional fashion: by discussing listener-submitted topics and object lessons! To submit yours, call in to (202) 743-5831 to leave a voicemail or email rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org. Just do it by COB on December 18!

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

More episodes

View all episodes

  • Lawfare Daily: Wikipedia, Ref-Working, and the Battle Over Reality

    50:31|
    Wikipedia is more than an encyclopedia. It’s a key part of the internet’s information infrastructure—shaping what people know, what AI models learn, and what the public sees as true. But in an era of geopolitical conflict, AI disruption, and fracturing trust, Wikipedia has come under attack.In this episode, Renée DiResta talks with Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales about his new book, “The Seven Rules of Trust,” and about how Wikipedia has managed to remain one of the most trusted sites on the internet. They explore the principles that helped build that trust and the outside pressure it’s come under—from American congressmen, to Russian censorship campaigns, to Elon Musk’s Grokipedia. What does it take to make institutions trustworthy in a low-trust era? What happens when reliable sources become a battleground for power? And how does a community continue to build shared knowledge while partisans are redefining the rules of truth?For further reading, see:“The Right-Wing Attack On Wikipedia,” by Renée DiResta in The Atlantic”The War Over Ukraine—on Wikipedia,” by Catarina Buchatskiy in Lawfare“Russian Court Fines Wikipedia Owner for Article on Ukraine,” by Anna Chernova and Olesya Dmitracova, CNN“The CDC Should Be More Like Wikipedia,” by Renée DiResta in The AtlanticTo receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.
  • Lawfare Daily: The Trials of the Trump Administration, Dec. 5

    01:37:47|
    In a live conversation on YouTube, Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Anna Bower, Michael Feinberg, Molly Roberts, Roger Parloff and Eric Columbus and Lawfare Contributing Editor James Pearce to discuss the arrest of a suspect in the attempted bombing on Jan. 6, 2021, a hearing in NPR’s lawsuit over the Trump administration cutting its funding, where the prosecutions of Letitia James and James Comey stand, and more.You can find information on legal challenges to Trump administration actions here. And check out Lawfare’s new homepage on the litigation, new Bluesky account, and new WITOAD merch.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.
  • Lawfare Archive: Lynzy Billing on Afghanistan's Zero Unit Night Raids

    42:27|
    From January 24, 2023: In 2019, investigative journalist and photographer Lynzy Billing went to Afghanistan to investigate a very personal story: her own past. In the process, she discovered what she came to call a classified war, one with lines of accountability so obscured that no one had to answer publicly for operations that went wrong.Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien sat down with Lynzy to talk through her four-year investigation, published last month in ProPublica. They discussed Afghanistan's shady Zero Units and their relationship with the CIA, the traumatic ripple effects caused by this lack of accountability, and why the U.S. continues to rely on a strategy of night raids, which Lynzy describes as quick, brutal operations that went wrong far more often than the U.S. has acknowledged. They also discussed why Lynzy decided to tell this story when few others would. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.
  • Lawfare Archive: How Congressional Staffers Helped Our Afghan Allies

    38:00|
    From April 5, 2024: A new report from the POPVOX Foundation focuses on a little-known and hugely under-appreciated congressional effort: that of congressional staffers helping Afghan allies flee the country during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett sat down with the report’s author, Anne Meeker. They talked about what staffers did to help, the challenges they faced, and how the experience exposed both weaknesses and strengths in how Congress functions. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.
  • Lawfare Live: The EU Fines X 120 M Euros - What Comes Next?

    35:50|
    On Dec. 5, the European Commission announced that they are fining X (formerlly Twitter) 120 million euros for impersonation scams with “verification,” broken advertising transpaency system, and blocking researchers from its platform. On a Lawfare Live, Lawfare Senior Editor Kate Klonick and Lawfare Contributing Editor Renee DiResta analyzed the decision, what happens next, and how this fits into the geopolitical struggle over free speech.
  • Scaling Laws: Caleb Withers on the Cybersecurity Frontier in the Age of AI

    49:00|
    Caleb Withers, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security, joins Kevin Frazier, the AI Innovation and Law Fellow at the University of Texas School of Law and a Senior Editor at Lawfare, to discuss how frontier models shift the balance in favor of attackers in cyberspace. The two discuss how labs and governments can take steps to address these asymmetries favoring attackers, and the future of cyber warfare driven by AI agents. Jack Mitchell, a student fellow in the AI Innovation and Law Program at the University of Texas School of Law, provided excellent research assistance on this episode.Check out Caleb’s recent research here. Find Scaling Laws on the Lawfare website, and subscribe to never miss an episode.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.
  • Lawfare Daily: The End of New START? With John Drennan and Matthew Sharp

    58:45|
    New START, the last bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, will expire in February 2026 if Washington and Moscow do not reach an understanding on its extension—as they have signaled they are interested to do. What would the end of New START mean for U.S.-Russia relations and the arms control architecture that had for decades contributed to stability among great powers?Lawfare Public Service Fellow Ariane Tabatabai sits down with John Drennan, Robert A. Belfer International Affairs Fellow in European Security, at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Matthew Sharp, Fellow at MIT’s Center for Nuclear Security Policy, to discuss what New START is, the implications of its expiration, and where the arms control regime might go from here.For further reading, see:“Putin’s Nuclear Offer: How to Navigate a New START Extension,” by John Drennan and Erin D. Dumbacher, Council on Foreign Relations“No New START: Renewing the U.S.-Russian Deal Won’t Solve Today’s Nuclear Dilemmas,” by Eric S. Edelman and Franklin C. Miller, Foreign Affairs“2024 Report to Congress on Implementation of the New START Treaty,” from the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, U.S. Department of StateTo receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.
  • Rational Security: The “Living La Vida Off Camera” Edition

    01:29:25|
    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“The Art of the Ordeal.” The Trump administration has been at the center of yet another bout of shuttle diplomacy the last several weeks, after an initial “28-point plan” for peace in Ukraine it appeared to hash out with Russia was met with widespread skepticism, both at home and in Kiev — leading it to shift focus to a “19-point plan” officials hashed out in closer consultation with Ukrainian officials and European officials, which was subsequently rejected by Russian President Vladimir Putin. What does this chaotic process tell us about the Trump administration’s strategy and priorities? And what is it likely to mean for America’s Ukrainian allies? “The War Crime on Drugs.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is at the center of another controversy, this time over his reported order to “kill everybody” in the first strike on an alleged narcotics-smuggling boat this past September—an order that, intentionally or not, led to a second strike that killed several people who were by that point clinging to wreckage in the open sea, in seemingly clear violation of Defense Department practice and the laws of armed conflict. Hegseth and the White House have sought to shift responsibility for the second strike to senior military personnel, but it’s not clear whether Congress—where Democrats and Republicans on the armed services committees are threatening oversight—are persuaded.“Unlawful Good.” Several legislators who are also current or former servicemembers have been labeled the “Seditious Six” by the Trump administration and its allies for public statements they made reiterating that servicemembers’ are only obligated to follow lawful orders, specifically in relation to ongoing counter-narcotics military operations in the Caribbean. And at least one—Sen. Mark Kelly, a retired naval officer—has been publicly threatened with a court martial by the Defense Department. How seriously should we take these legal actions? And what could the broader ramifications be for the military?In object lessons, Ben uses his once per decade mulligan. Eric recommends his current reading selection, "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare," a book that Scott reviewed on the Lawfare Podcast earlier this year. Scott gets into the spirit with one of his favorite seasonal albums, "It's a Holiday Soul Party." And Natalie plugs Lawfare’s new Domestic deployment tracker - plus, a fabulous, olive-filled stuffing recipe (just add croutons!)Rational Security will be having its traditional end-of-year episode later this month, which will focus on listener-submitted topics and object lessons! So if you have topics you want us to discuss and object lessons you want to share—whether serious or frivolous—be sure to send them to rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org by Dec. 17th!
  • Lawfare Daily: The Besieged District Judges, with Reynolds Holding and Judge Jed Rakoff

    50:57|
    Veteran legal journalist Reynolds Holding, author of "Better Judgment: How Three Judges Are Bringing Justice Back to the Courts," and U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff, one of the judges featured in his book, sit down with Lawfare Senior Editor Roger Parloff to discuss the role of district judges in our justice system. They also discuss the attacks those judges are enduring today from the Department of Justice, the White House, Congress, and even members of the U.S. Supreme Court.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.