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Lawfare Daily: Peter Salib on AI Self-Improvement
In foundational accounts of AI risk, the prospect of AI self-improvement looms large. The idea is simple. For any capable, goal-seeking system, the system’s goal will be more readily achieved if the system first makes itself even more capable. Having become somewhat more capable, the system will be able to improve itself again. And so on, possibly generating a rapid explosion of AI capabilities, resulting in systems that humans cannot hope to control.
Alan Rozenshtein, Associate Professor of Law at the University of Minnesota and Senior Editor at Lawfare, spoke with Peter Salib, who is less worried about this danger than many. Salib is an Assistant Professor of Law at the University of Houston Law Center and co-Director of the Center for Law & AI Risk. He just published a new white paper in Lawfare's ongoing Digital Social Contract paper series arguing that the same reason that it's difficult for humans to align AI systems is why AI systems themselves will hesitate to self-improve.
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Chatter: German Grand Strategy and ... Kraftwerk, with Ben Tallis
01:27:06|International politics and security expert Dr. Ben Tallis, who now directs the Berlin-based Democratic Strategy Initiative, joined David Priess to discuss the challenges of German grand strategy since 1945, the country's musical culture in the 1950s and 1960s, the origins and evolution of Kraftwerk and its members' effort to reconceptualize German identity, the band's influence on musicians globally, U2 and post-Cold War Europe, how Germany became the most respected country in the world by 2020, Chancellor Angela Merkel's missed opportunities to reconceptualize Germany's international role, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Zeitenwende speech, German rearmament since 2022 compared to Poland, the role of chancellor in the German system, the roster of future German leaders, and whether countries in Central and Eastern Europe would have enough confidence in German resolve to follow more assertive leadership from Berlin.Mentioned in this episode:Official website of the band KraftwerkThe Democratic Strategy Initiative, at www.democratic-strategy.netThe journal article by Benjamin Tallis, "Kraftwerk and the International 'Re-Birth of Germany:' Multiplicity, Identity, and Difference in Music and International Relations," in Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 57:3 (2022)The online article by Roderick Parkes, Florence Schimmel, and Benjamin Tallis, "Germany Needs a Strategy--Grand and Democratic," in Internationale Politik Quarterly, January 16, 2024Chatter is a production of Lawfare and Goat Rodeo. This episode was produced and edited by Cara Shillenn of Goat Rodeo. Podcast theme by David Priess, featuring music created using Groovepad.Lawfare Daily: What Does the Inspector General Do?
51:55|Jack Goldsmith sits down with Glenn Fine, the former principal deputy Inspector General of the Department of Defense and former Acting IG of the Department of Defense, and author of the new book, “Watchdogs: Inspectors General and the Battle for Honest and Accountable Government.” They discuss the history of inspectors general and early constitutional concerns about the role that inspectors general play, Fine’s experiences at both the Department of Justice and the Department of Defense, the 2022 inspector general reforms and their significance, and Fine’s own proposed reforms to improve inspector general oversight.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Daily: Kevin Xu on the State of the AI Arms Race Between the U.S. and China
42:04|Kevin Xu, founder of Interconnected Capital and author of the Interconnected newsletter, joins Kevin Frazier, Senior Research Fellow in the Constitutional Studies Program at the University of Texas at Austin and a Tarbell Fellow at Lawfare, to analyze China’s AI ambitions, its current AI capacities, and the likely effect of updated export controls on the nation’s AI efforts. The two pay particular attention to the different AI development strategies being deployed by the U.S. and China and how those differences reflect the AI priorities of the respective nations.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Archive: Ignatius and Goldsmith on the Story of Kash Patel
46:50|From May 11, 2021: David Ignatius, a columnist for the Washington Post, recently ran a lengthy column about the machinations of Kash Patel in the executive branch during the presidential transition. Patel, a former staffer for Devin Nunes, held a variety of positions in the months before Donald Trump left office, and Donald Trump considered him for a variety of other positions. It's a remarkable story that raises a whole series of questions that Jack Goldsmith has been asking on Lawfare for some time. Benjamin Wittes sat down with Ignatius and Goldsmith to discuss the article. What was Patel up to in the final days of the Trump administration? What does it say about the way the executive branch functioned under Donald Trump? And what does it say about the activities of the deep state?Trump's Trials and Tribulations, The Final Edition
01:29:47|This episode of “Lawfare Live: “Trump’s Trials and Tribulations” was recorded on December 5 in front of a live audience on Youtube and Zoom.Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes spoke to Lawfare Senior Editors Anna Bower, Quinta Jurecic, and Roger Parloff, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, and Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett about Jack Smith’s motions to dismiss the federal prosecutions of Donald Trump, where the state cases stand, and so much more for the last regular edition of this series. Find the Lawfare auction here.Lawfare Daily: Joel Braunold on What Donald Trump's Return Might Mean for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
01:02:57|For today’s podcast, Lawfare General Counsel and Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson sat down with Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, for the latest in their series of podcast conversations on aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This time, they focused on what might be one of the most consequential developments in recent memory: Donald Trump’s return to the White House.They discussed who seems likely to steer policy toward the conflict in the incoming Trump administration, how the approach may differ from Trump’s last stint in the White House, and what it all may mean for Gaza, the West Bank, and the broader region.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Rational Security: The "Ukraine in the Membrane" Edition
01:16:13|This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, for an episode committed to one big topic: what Trump’s return to the White House might mean for Ukraine. They tackled the issue in three parts:“What Condition My Attrition Is In.” By most accounts, after more than two years of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine has come to look very much like a war of attrition. How do Ukrainians feel about the state of the conflict and the prospects looking forward? What steps are the outgoing Biden administration taking to change the calculus—and what impact might they still have, if any?“New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.” Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises a sea change in how the United States has approached the conflict in Ukraine. What do his early national security appointments—and engagements with, among others, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—tell us about his plans? And where do they seem likely to lead?“Flipping the Board.” Trump’s election—and whatever outcome he is able to bring about in Ukraine—has the potential to reset the strategic environment in Europe (and the U.S. strategic relationship with Russia) more generally. What might regional security—and security for Ukraine specifically—look like by 2028?For object lessons, Nastya recommended Catherine Belton’s new book, “Putin’s People,” on the return and rise to power of the KGB. Eric gave a belated endorsement for the Oscar-winning South Korean film “Parasite,” and urged folks to watch it as a celebration of the democratic resilience South Korea demonstrated this week. Scott plugged the holiday variety show he was attending that evening and urged listeners to welcome the season with Aimee Mann’s “One More Drifter in the Snow.” And Francis recommended GeoGuessr, the geolocation game that has taken the KI newsroom by storm.Rational Security will be saying goodbye to 2024 in its traditional fashion: by discussing listener-submitted topics and object lessons! To submit yours, call in to (202) 743-5831 to leave a voicemail or email rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org. Just do it by COB on December 18!To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Daily: Turmoil in South Korea
37:46|Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sits down with Andrew Yeo, Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Program and SK-Korea Foundation Chair of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, to talk about the current turmoil in South Korea. Within about 48 hours, there was a declaration of martial law, the National Assembly convened to rescind the declaration of martial law, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol accepted it, and now he faces impeachment. Yeo breaks down what’s going on and what it all might mean for the future of U.S.-South Korea relations in a second Trump administration.You can watch a video version of their conversation here.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Daily: Ukraine’s Past and Future with NATO
47:10|Ukraine has been pursuing NATO membership for many years. But what realistic options does it have in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion? Historian and author of a book about tensions between the NATO and Russia “Not One Inch,” Mary Sarotte, sits down with Lawfare Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina to describe what lessons Ukraine can take from the cases of Norway and West Germany.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.